997
AXNT20 KNHC 050410
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon May 5 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and
extends to 08N17W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
03N30W to 04N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing from 03N to 06N between 20W and 27W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front is moving very slowly across the eastern Gulf, and
extends from Crystal River, Florida, to 26N87W, then is stationary
to just south of the U.S.-Mexico border. The surface trough that
had been over the south-central Gulf ahead of the front, producing
showers and thunderstorms offshore Florida, has dissipated,
leaving the basin void of convection. Gentle to locally moderate
SE to E winds dominate the western basin, with light to gentle
winds in the east. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the western Gulf and less
than 2 ft in the eastern Gulf. Light smoke from agricultural and
forest fires over southern Mexico covers most of the basin.
For the forecast, the front will completely stall and weaken Mon
morning along 25N/26N. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the
basin through early Mon. Winds over the western zones will
gradually strengthen Mon evening to moderate to fresh, then to
fresh to strong Mon night through Wed morning. Winds will pulse to
moderate to fresh in the Straits of Florida through mid-week.
Another weak front may reach the NW Gulf mid-week. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy
conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest
reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered thunderstorms are noted offshore eastern Jamaica,
otherwise no convection is present in the basin. Mainly gentle
trades dominate, although moderate trades encompass the central
basin and the Gulf of Honduras, and light winds prevail in the far
southwest basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will pulse
north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds nightly
starting Tue night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue
over most of the eastern Caribbean well into the week. Gentle to
moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected over the
remainder of the basin through the period, including in the
Tropical N Atlantic, pulsing to fresh nightly near the Windward
Passage starting Mon night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad ridging anchored by a surface high centered in the central
Atlantic well north of the region is dominating the basin. There
is a weak cold front that extends from 30N30W to 27N45W, and a
surface trough along 57W from 19N to 26N. Neither feature is
producing any convection, and the only sensible weather induced by
either is some fresh E winds to the E of the trough. The only
convection in the basin is being caused by upper level divergence
in a band extending north from the NW Bahamas along 77W.
Otherwise, winds are generally moderate or less, with seas of 4
to 7 ft. A zone of 7 to 9 ft seas are present where the
aforementioned fresh winds are occurring, from roughly 25N to 29N
between 52W and 58W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a
trough that extends north to south near 57W and a ridge of high
pressure over the western Atlantic support fresh NE winds and
moderate seas into early week as it shifts gradually westward. A
weak cold front approaching the southeastern U.S. coast will stall
through Mon, and lift back northwest as warm front around the
middle of the week, then may slowly push offshore again at the end
of the week. Expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the western waters into the early part of the
week.
$$
Konarik
