000
AXNT20 KNHC 292141
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 10N18W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N18W to 00N30W to 01N40W. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 04N between
08W and 20W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A line of strong thunderstorms continues to move across the
northwest Gulf off Louisiana and northern Texas. This activity is
starting to weaken, but frequent lightning, strong gusts, and
locally rough seas are ongoing. Moderate SE flow is evident
elsewhere between 1021 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic
and a trough over central Mexico. Combined seas across the Gulf
are generally 5 to 7 ft.
For the forecast, the aforementioned high-pressure system will
weaken over the next few days, resulting in diminishing winds and
decreasing seas across the basin. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to
fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula and south-
central Gulf each evening through the forecast period.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Recent buoy observations along with scatterometer satellite data
indicate mostly moderate to fresh winds across the central
Caribbean, the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. An
earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated seas to 8 ft off
Belize, but nearby buoy data indicates seas are likely 5 to 7 ft
currently across the northeast Caribbean. Combined seas are
likely 4 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin. No significant
convection is noted across the basin.
For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area over the
western Atlantic will gradually weaken over the next few days.
Fresh to locally strong easterly winds at night in the Gulf of
Honduras, Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola will
diminish by Wed. Northerly swell will support rough seas through
the passages in the NE Caribbean through Wed. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate easterly winds are forecast for the eastern half of
the Caribbean Thu and Fri while light to gentle winds will
dominate elsewhere.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a cold front
that extends from 31N42W to 21N53W. Fresh to strong NW winds and
8 to 13 ft seas follow the front north of 25N and reach as far
west as 65W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and 6 to 7 ft are
evident within 90 nm east of the front. Farther west, 1021 mb
high pressure area is centered near 30N70W, supporting fresh
winds NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas south of 22N. Gentle to
moderate and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of the
front. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are
noted elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic west of 35W. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted east of 35W
over the eastern Atlantic, south of a strong ridge over of the
Azores.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NW winds behind
the cold front will continue to affect the waters north of 28N
between 55W and 65W through Tue evening. Long period northerly
swell with peak seas to 13 ft will start subsiding this evening
as the front continues to shift eastward. Fresh to locally strong
winds will continue over the waters south of 23N and west of 70W
through late today, especially in the approaches of the Windward
Passage. More tranquil marine conditions are expected afterwards
as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.
$$
Christensen
