000
AXNT20 KNHC 270556
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 03N16W
02N24W 02N32W, to the Equator along 37W, to the Equator along 40W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to
the south of the line 08N12W 07N30W 06N40W 05N52W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through
the far west of Texas, to 23N100W, through the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to west central Guatemala.
A broad surface trough is in the Gulf of Mexico from the Texas/
Louisiana border to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area. The GFS model
for 700 mb shows a trough that extends from the middle Texas Gulf
coast to the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS
model for 700 mb shows anticyclonic wind flow in the eastern half
of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level westerly wind flow is pushing
high level moisture from Mexico into most of the Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to rough seas have been from 24N to 28N between 92W and
97W. Slight seas are from 25N northward from 86W eastward. Moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong
SE winds are in the Gulf of Mexico.
Tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge in the NW Atlantic
and lower pressures in the central US and Mexico will support
fresh to strong southeast winds over much of the Gulf through Sun
night. Seas are expected to peak near 11 ft in the NW Gulf Sat
night and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong
speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the
forecast period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough remains in the eastern half of the Dominican
Republic. Precipitation: scattered moderate spans Hispaniola in
particular. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
to widely scattered moderate, are in the Caribbean Sea, to the
east of the line that runs from 14N83W at the coast of Nicaragua
beyond the Windward Passage. Heavy rains and flooding have been
occurring in Hispaniola during the last 8 days to 10 days. It is
possible that continual amounts of rain may help to increase the
chances for flash flooding in inland areas, especially in hilly
terrain and in low-lying areas. Please, refer to bulletins from
your local weather service offices, for more details about this
event.
Slight seas are within 60 nm of the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras from 14N to 16N; from 20N northward between 80W and 82W;
and within 120 nm of the Gulf of Honduras from 86W westward.
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to
strong NE winds are in the Windward Passage; and within 120 nm of
the coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea.
The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 27/0000 UTC, are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.
Strong ridge off New England will force fresh to strong trade
winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and
south of Hispaniola through early next week. Seas will peak near 8
ft during the strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds will prevail in the rest of the basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is along 31N60W 25N66W, through the eastern half
of the Dominican Republic, to 16N70W in the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 45W and 76W. Moderate
seas are between 50W and 70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from
the surface trough northward between 60W and 70W. Moderate and
slower winds are from 20N to the surface trough between 58W and
the surface trough.
A cold front is passing through 31N70W, to 29N78W. The cold front
is dissipating, from 29N78W, northwestward to 30N83W in Florida.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from the cold front northward.
Strong NE to E winds are from 30N to 33N between 76W and 80W.
Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from 80W westward. Moderate
seas are from 30N northward from 70W westward. Slight seas are
from 30N southward from 70W westward.
A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 18N41W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are
from 13N to 22N between 35W and 45W. Other similar clouds and
precipitation are from 10N to 20N between 45W and 60W. Fresh NE
winds are from 23N northward between 33W and 44W. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are from 23N northward from 33W eastward. Mostly
moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet, just
less than rough seas, from 16N to 30N between 33W and 51W.
Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward from 40W
eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
25N27W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 20N to 30N
between 28W and 40W. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are in the areas of
the upper level cyclonic wind flow.
A cold front currently south of 30N and W of 70W will merge with
a frontal trough that extends from 31N61W to the eastern Dominican
Republic tonight. The front will reach from near 31N58W to
eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by
Sun morning, then stall and weaken over the far southeastern part
late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind the front will
build seas to a peak of 12 ft over northeast offshore waters by
Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will
result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the
front from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, fresh winds will
prevail in the wake of the weakening front and continue through
Mon. Tranquil conditions are expected Tue as high pressure becomes
centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with the
induced gradient supporting fresh northeast to east winds over the
southern waters.
$$
mt/sd
