322
AXNT20 KNHC 122118
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Feb 13 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near 31N63W
to 29N74W and to inland central Florida just south of Daytona Beach,
Florida. The pressure gradient between the front and a high pressure
ridge to its east has resulted in gale-force southwest winds ahead
of the front to near 62W and north of 30N. Seas with these winds are
10 to 15 ft (3 to 5 m). These hazardous marine conditions will
spread eastward through tonight. The front will quickly reaches from
near 31N57W to 27N65W and weakening stationary to central Florida on
Fri, at which time the gradient is expected to slacken enough to
allow these winds to diminish to just below gale-force and seas to
subside to around 9 to 13 ft (3 to 4 m) in west to northwest swell.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N13.5W and
continues southwestward to 03N22W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to the Equator at 30W and to south of the Equator near
02.5S39.5W. Numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm south
of the ITCZ between 22W-25W, also within 60 nm north of the
trough and ITCZ between 20W-24W and within 60 nm north of the
ITCZ between 25W-26W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from north-central Florida west-
northwestward to just south of Apalachicola and to just north
New Orleans, Louisiana. To its south, a 1022 mb high center is
analyzed over the north-central Gulf at 27N90W. This feature
pretty much controls the weather pattern across the basin. The
associated gradient is allowing for generally light to variable
to gentle winds throughout, with the exception of gentle north to
northeast winds near and along the Yucatan Peninsula coast. Seas
are relatively low, in the 2 to 3 ft range per buoy and
altimeter satellite data.
For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in control of
the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri, bringing
in general light to gentle winds, with the exception of moderate
to fresh easterly winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche
through Sun. Southerly return flow will increase to fresh to
strong speeds Fri night into Sat ahead of a cold front that will
move across the west and central waters Sat night and Sun. Strong
south to southwest winds and rough seas are expected in the north-
central and NE Gulf section with passage of this frontal system on
Sun. The front is forecast to exit southeast of the area late on
Mon. Conditions remain favorable for the formation of patchy fog
near and along some sections of the Texas coastal plains tonight and
Fri night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south
central Caribbean. Seas there are in the 7 to 9 ft range. over
these waters. Moderate to fresh trades generally prevail
elsewhere, with the exception of gentle to moderate northeast
winds over the northwestern section of the basin. Seas over
these waters are in the 3 to 5 ft range.
satellite imagery shows an area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the extreme northeast part of the sea north
of 17N and east of 66W, including the eastern half of Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over the waters between the Virgin Islands and
the northern Leeward Islands. This activity being enhanced by
upper-level divergence that is present to the east and southeast
of a broad western Atlantic upper-level trough.
For the forecast, pulsing winds to near gale-force are expected
near the coast of Colombia again tonight due to the pressure
gradient between the Colombia/Panamanian low and high pressure
centered N of the region. Winds will continue to pulse to strong
speeds nightly thereafter, with moderate to rough seas.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will
prevail through the upcoming weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning for winds ahead of a western Atlantic cold front.
A cold front is analyzed from near 31N63W to 29N74W and to
inland central Florida near just south of Daytona Beach, Florida.
Aside from the gale conditions east of the front as described
above under Special Features, fresh to strong southwest to west
are elsewhere southeast and south of the front to near 27N and
east to 72W along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in northwest swell.
West to northwest winds are present elsewhere south of the front
to 26N along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in northwest to north swell
while moderate north to northeast winds are north of the front
west of 67W, and fresh to strong northwest to north winds are
east of 67W. Seas north of the front are 4 to 6 ft in north to
northeast swell west of 74W, 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell
between 70W and 74W, 7 to 10 ft in northwest swell between 67W and
70W, and 9 to 13 ft in northwest swell between 63W and 67W.
Farther east, a 1028 mb high center is analyzed just north of
the area at 32N35W, with a ridge stretching southwestward to
26N50W and to near 25N60W. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and relatively lower pressure to the south is allowing for
moderate to fresh trades to exist southeast of the ridge east of
60W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in decaying long-period northwest swell
over these waters. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes
indicate moderate to fresh southeast to south winds north of the
ridge roughly between 45W and a line from 31N50W to 25N60W. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft in long-period northwest swell with these winds.
The latest scatterometer satellite data passes show light to
gentle anticyclonic within about 180 nm of the high center. Seas
are 7 to 9 ft also with long-period northwest swell within this
area of light to gentle winds. Lower sea conditions are present
southwest and southeast of the Bahama Islands to along the
coasts of Cuba and Hispaniola. Seas as low as 1 to 3 ft are west
of 79W, including the Straits of Florida. Higher seas of 3 to 5
ft are in the Windward Passage and surrounding waters.
satellite imagery depicts an area of numerous showers and
thunderstorms confined to south of 23N between 60W and 66W.
The activity becomes less numerous as it reaches south toward
the Virgin Islands and near the coast of Puerto Rico. Gusty winds
are possible with this activity as it is being enhanced by a
broad upper-level trough to its west. This activity should
persist into Fri as translates east-northeastward.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N63W
to 29N74W and to just south of Daytona Beach, Florida as described
above under Special Features. The front will reach from near 31N53W
to the Windward Passage by Sat morning. High pressure will follow
the front. On Sun, south winds will increase to strong speeds
offshore north and central Florida in advance of another cold front
that is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Mon.
Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas are expected in
the wake of this next front.
$$
Aguirre
