000
AXNT20 KNHC 080620
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri May 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, extending from 01N to
07N with axis near 37W, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate
convection extends from 04S to 04N between 33W and 43W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
southwestward to near 01N25W, with the tropical wave described
above to the west. The ITCZ is analyzed from 01N25W to 01N35W and
then resumes west of the tropical wave near 00N38W and continues
to 00N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave, scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 17N between 15W
and 22W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak stationary front stretches southwestward from the western
Florida panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas, with a surface
ridge in control for the rest of the Gulf waters. Heavy showers
and tstms associated with the from are ongoing over the NE Mexico
and southern Texas offshore waters. Except for the areas of
convection and in the Bay of Campeche, winds are moderate or
weaker and seas slight to moderate. Over the Bay of Campeche,
winds are moderate to fresh associated with a surface trough
coming off the Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, expect scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the northern offshore waters of Texas tonight
and Fri, then spread south of New Orleans and Florida Panhandle
Fri night as the front sinks a bit farther south. The front will
then stall and lift back to the north as a warm front late Fri
night thru Sat. Afterward, the ridge should build back across the
Gulf from the east. In response, winds will pulse to between fresh
and strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat
night. Looking ahead, another cold front might move into the
northern Gulf waters late Sun, and reach from north-central
Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by
moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are
possible to precede the fronts.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia supports fresh to strong E
winds in the central Caribbean, where seas are 6-8 ft. Fresh to
strong winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and southwest
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail
elsewhere.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a surface
ridge across the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure
over northern Colombia will continue to sustain fresh to strong
easterly trade winds with nighttime pulses to near-gale in the
south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through
early next week. Similar conditions are also expected in the Gulf
of Honduras, through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected across the remainder of the eastern and central
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The tail of a cold front is over the far E Atlantic subtropical
waters while surface ridging dominates elsewhere. Winds are
moderate or weaker and seas moderate.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off
northeastern Florida late tonight into Fri morning, then gradually
weaken as it shifts eastward north of 28N through Sat. The front
will bring southerly moderate winds off northern Florida through
today. Then a stronger cold front is expected to follow a similar
path Mon through Tue, followed by moderate to locally strong
winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong
to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts.
Meanwhile, a surface ridge across the western Atlantic near 28N65W
will support fresh to locally strong winds off northern
Hispaniola at night Sat through Mon.
$$
Ramos
