AXNT20 KNHC 292311

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2311 UTC Sun Mar 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas will continue supporting nightly gales pulsing off the coast of Colombia through Mon night. Seas may reach near 14 ft by each early morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N09W to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 02S33W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S-00N between 25W-28W.


A cold front is stalling from the mouth of the Mississippi River to near the mouth of the Rio Grande. Buoy observations and data from a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE winds north of the front off the Louisiana and Texas coasts, with seas 4 to 6 ft. A trough is well defined in the scatterometer data front reaching from near southeast Louisiana to CoatzacoalcosMexico. The scatterometer pass also showed fresh winds east of this trough over the south central Gulf. Seas buoy and altimeter satellite data indicated seas of 3 to 5 ft over the remainder of the Gulf. Moderate levels of smoke are evident on satellite imagery emerging from agricultural fires in southern Mexico over the southwest Gulf. This may be limiting surface visibility to 2 to 4 nm in some areas. Moderate smoke may also be apparent off the coast of western Cuba, extending into the southeast Gulf. No significant weather is noted elsewhere across the Gulf at this time.

For the forecast, high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic across Florida and into the eastern Gulf will drift southward and weaken over the next couple days. The stalling front extending over the northwest and north central Gulf will lift northward as a warm front tonight into Mon. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Tue and cross the basin through Wed night, with fresh northerly winds expected behind the front over the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will develop near the northern Yucatan coast this evening as a thermal trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula.


Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Recent scatterometer satellite data and buoy observations show fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean, between high pressure centered east of the Bahamas and low pressure anchored over northern Colombia. Near gale force winds are evident off the coast of Colombia, where seas are estimated to be near 13 ft. Seas are 8 to 12 ft elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds persist elsewhere across the basin with 5 to 7 ft seas. Scattered showers embedded in the trade wind flow are noted in regional radar across the Windward Islands to the coast of Venezuela. A few showers are also noted near Puerto Rico/USVI and west of Jamaica. These showers are fast moving and low-topped. Very dry conditions persist in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere across the Caribbean, and no other significant weather is observed at this time.

For the forecast, gale force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia tonight and Mon night. High pressure centered over the east of the Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trades elsewhere over the south- central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening through Tue over the Gulf of Honduras. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Tue night through late week as the ridge weakens north of the area.


West of 65W, a ridge extends westward along 28N from 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 28N66W. This is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas south of 22N along the north coast of Hispaniola toward the entrances to the Windward Passage. Moderate SW winds are evident off the coast of northeast Florida. Light to gentle winds persist elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas. No significant weather is noted.

Regarding the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the high pressure will drift southward and weaken over the next few days, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast early Mon. The front will stall north of 27N Mon night into Tue. The front will lift north by late Tue, ahead of a strengthening low pressure expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast Tue night. The low pressure will accelerate eastward through Thu while pulling a cold front across the offshore waters. Strong to near gale force winds are expected ahead of the front north of 25N Tue night and Wed, with gale force winds possible Wed into Wed night off northeast Florida. Increasing northerly swell will support building seas across the area through Fri.

Elsewhere farther east, a cold front from 32N42W to 26N58W is associated with a gale center farther north over the north central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft follow the front north of 28N. Winds and seas will increase through late Mon north of 28N between 30W and 50W as the low pressure drifts southward. Farther east, 1019 mb high pressure near 26N27W may dissipate through Mon ahead of the front, and a weaker front moving through the Canary Islands. Because of the weakened ridge, only moderate trade wind flow is evident farther south over the tropical Atlantic waters, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft are noted off the northern coast of Mauritania.

$$ Christensen