000
AXNT20 KNHC 312213
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jan 01 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N swell generated from
a gale force low N of the area is producing very rough seas
greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 27N between
25W and 40W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while
gradually subsiding through late week. Rough seas greater than 8
ft cover the waters N of 10N between 20W and 55W.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and continues
to 07N15W. The ITCZ extends from 07N15W to 04N35W to 02N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between
16W and 41W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1028 mb high pressure centered near the mouth of the Rio Grande
continues to build into the basin. Fresh to strong NW winds and
rough seas continue in the Bay of Campeche, otherwise winds have
diminished to moderate, with moderate seas S of 25N and slight
seas to the N.
For the forecast, high pressure settling over the region will
provide for moderate or weaker winds over the basin through Thu.
Seas will be relatively low with these winds. Fresh west to
southwest winds may develop over the northern Gulf by late week
ahead of a low pressure system that will move across the southern
United States. A cold front will extend from the low across the
forecast waters, reaching the eastern Gulf on Sun while weakening,
then move to south of the area Sun night. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms may accompany the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from far eastern Cuba to central Honduras.
Fresh N winds and moderate seas are NW of the front, with fresh NE
to E winds and moderate seas across most of the rest of the basin
ahead of the front. A surface trough is along 72W from Hispaniola
to Colombia. E of the trough, locally strong trades are present in
the SE basin, and scattered moderate convection is ongoing within
120 nm of the Dominican Republic coast.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse
in the south-central Caribbean into early Thu. A cold front that
extends from eastern Cuba to 18N80W and to central Honduras will
become stationary from Hispaniola to near 15N80W by late on Thu,
then weaken and dissipate on Fri. Fresh north winds and rough seas
behind the front reaching to near 86W will diminish north of 18N
on Fri and south of 18N early on Sat. Rough seas in north swell
over the Atlantic will subside by Thu evening.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for information on
significant swell causing very rough seas in portions of the
east-central Atlantic.
A cold front extends from 31N61W through the Turks and Caicos and
into far eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is along and
within 60 nm E of the front. Moderate NW winds and seas are
present W of the front. E of the front, fresh to locally strong SW
winds and rough seas are present N of 25N, extending E to 55W.
Farther E, a 1023 mb high pressure center near 28N51W is leading
to a broad area of light to gentle winds N of 20N between 40W and
50W. Another cold front in the far E Atlantic extends from just W
of the Canary Islands to 21N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
approaching the Canary Islands in association with this front. N
of 25N, strong winds are present on both sides of the boundary.
For tropical waters S of 20N, mainly moderate NE to E trades
dominate, with moderate to locally rough seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it
moves across the eastern offshore waters Thu, and while its
southern portion becomes stationary. Fresh to locally strong
southwest winds and rough seas will prevail ahead of the front,
generally north of 26N, through tonight. Fresh to locally strong
west winds and rough seas may develop off the coast of northern
Florida on Thu as a cold front passes north of the waters. Weak
high pressure will build over the western tropical Atlantic
allowing for moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the
rest of the waters for late week. The high pressure will begin to
shift eastward on Sat as low pressure, with an attendant cold
front, moves across the southern United States. The front will
move across the basin starting late on Sat, reaching the eastern
offshore waters Mon and and Mon night while weakening. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind this
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely will be
accompanying the front.
$$
Konarik
