661
AXNT20 KNHC 010833
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N swell generated from
a gale force low N of the area is producing very rough seas
greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 27N between
23W and 36W. These very rough seas will subside below 12 ft
today.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
to 07N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N22W to 02N50W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to
07N and between 18W and 34W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 24.5N92W.
Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with light to
gentle winds elsewhere W of 90W. Gentle to moderate winds are E of
90W. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range in subsiding northerly swell S
of 25N, and 1-4 ft N of 25N.
For the forecast, high pressure prevails across the Gulf waters,
with moderate or weaker winds expected today. Fresh to
occasionally strong west to southwest winds will develop over the
northern Gulf Friday ahead of the next cold front. This cold front
will enter the Gulf waters Saturday, then move south of the area
by early next week. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A frontal boundary from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are west of the front.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft are over the southern
Caribbean N of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and
seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the frontal boundary will gradually dissipate
by Friday. Fresh north winds behind the front will diminish north
to south through Fri. Rough seas in north swell over the Atlantic
will subside by this evening.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for information on
significant swell causing very rough seas in portions of the
east-central Atlantic.
A cold front extends from near 31N60W to the Windward passage.
Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 7-10 ft prevail N of
27N and E of the front to 53W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 4-7 ft prevail W of the front. Farther east, a pair of cold
fronts are moving across the northern waters, extending from a
gale force low N of the area. The first front extends from 31N16W
to 21N32W. The second front extends from 31N18W to 27N32W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the
vicinity of the front, N of 27N between 14W and 24W. Fresh to
strong winds on either side of the front are N of 25N between 16W
and 35W. Very rough seas over these waters are discussed above.
Elsewhere, rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 23N
between 18W and 42W. A 1023 mb high is centered near 28N45W. Light
winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will weaken as it moves
across the eastern offshore waters today, and while the southern
portion becomes stationary. Fresh to locally strong southwest
winds and rough seas will prevail ahead of the front, generally
north of 27N, today. Fresh to locally strong west winds and rough
seas will develop off the coast of northern Florida today as a
cold front passes north of the waters. Weak high pressure will
build over the western tropical Atlantic, with moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas over the rest of the waters for late week.
Another front will move across the basin starting late on Sat,
reaching the eastern offshore waters Mon and and Mon night while
weakening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
ahead and behind this front.
$$
AL
