AXNT20 KNHC 080443

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Feb 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge positioned SE of the Carolinas and the comparatively lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea off the coast of Colombia through late this week. Seas will peak near 14 ft in the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extends from 31N54W to the coast of NE Cuba near 21N75W. Seas of 12-15 ft are found behind the front, mainly N of 29N and E of 70W. Seas will build to near 18 ft by early Wed morning. Swell direction is NE with a period of 10-15 seconds. This swell event will continue to propagate southward reaching the Greater Antilles late Wed. Seas will subside on Thu. However, seas greater than 8 ft will dominate most of the forecast waters into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues to 04N16W. THe ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 01N41W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.


High pressure off the Carolinas extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers are found off NW Yucatan and in the eastern Gulf, while generally drier weather prevails elsewhere in the basin. The pressure gradient between the strong ridge and lower pressures in the tropical waters result in fresh to strong easterly winds off NW Cuba and northern Yucatan. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes are prevalent in the rest of the Gulf. Seas of 4-7 ft are evident east of 88W and 3-6 ft west of 88W.

Light southerly return flow is increasing the moisture content across the northern Gulf coast, producing favorable conditions for the development of marine fog during the overnight hours. A dense fog advisory is in effect from the coast of NE Texas to Mississippi until Wed 16Z. Visibility may decrease to less an 1 nm creating hazardous conditions for mariners.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressure associated with a cold front over SE Texas will support fresh SE to S winds across the Gulf of Mexico through midday Wed. The cold front over Texas will move over the western Gulf Wed afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will briefly follow this front, which will stall over the west-central Gulf on Thu while dissipating. A stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu night, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Merida, Mexico Fri evening, and exit the basin by Sat afternoon. Northerly gales are possible near Tampico, Mexico early Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico Fri afternoon through early Sat. Gales could also persist over the central Bay of Campeche into Sat morning. Very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front, especially over the SW Gulf. Winds and seas will gradually subside Sun as a high pressure ridge moves over the basin.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of the Colombia.

No deep convection is present across the Caribbean Sea but pockets of shallow moisture are producing some isolated showers, especially in the lee of Cuba. The subtropical ridge between the Carolinas and Bermuda is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds across most of the basin. Strong to gale-force NE-E winds continue to affect the waters off NW Colombia as detailed in the Special Features section. Strong force winds are also found off southern Hispaniola, Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are primarily 6-12 ft in the Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Winds will increase in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras tonight through late this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel on Sat morning, and move across the NW Caribbean, extending from eastern Cuba to Honduras by Sun evening. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the Western Atlantic Significant Swell Event.

A 1037 mb high pressure system centered north of the Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic, suppressing the development of deep convection. A cold front extends from 31N54W to the coast of NE Cuba. Moderate to locally strong northerly winds prevail behind the front. Seas greater than 8 ft are present behind the frontal boundary, especially east of 75W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are present ahead of the cold front, north of 29N and west of 47W.

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics allow for fresh to locally strong easterly winds in most of the central and eastern Atlantic waters, primarily south of 28N. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N54W to the SE Bahamas will extend along 22N-23N by Wed evening while weakening. Fresh to strong winds will persist N of 28N on either side of the front through tonight. Large N swell will propagate across the forecast waters E of the Bahamas to 55W through late week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward Passage from tonight through late week. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off NE Florida Fri night with strong winds and rough seas on both sides of the front, persisting east of Florida through the weekend.