083
AXNT20 KNHC 271809
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean:
The interaction between a tropical wave that is described below
and abundant tropical moisture will continue to enhance heavy rain
across portions of Central America into tonight. This will
increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslides,
especially in hilly terrain. According to the latest model
guidance, the heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the
northeast coast of Nicaragua and in northern Honduras.
Additionally, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of
Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days due to the recent formation of a broad area of low pressure
that is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Please refer to the local
Weather Services in the region for more information.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa per
the latest satellite imagery animation, further supported by the
SUNY-Albany Trough Diagnostics 700 mb potential vorticity
guidance. It annalist along 18W from 05N to 19N, and is moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
west of the wave from 09N to 12N. A dry and very stable
environment surrounds the wave north of 12N.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 36W from 04N
to 16N, moving westward at about 10 kt. This wave is also
not accompanied by significant convection.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from
20N55W to 12N54W to inland French Guiana. It is moving westward
at 15-20 kt. satellite imagery shows that scattered moderate
convection has increased within 120 nm either side of the wave
axis from 10N to 12N. Similar convection is east of the wave
axis within 30 nm either side of line from 13N53W to 12N49W to
10N43W. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass captured a
subtle northeast to southeast wind shift across the wave axis.
The winds are of moderate to fresh speeds north of 13N and of
gentle to moderate speeds south of 13N.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has recently moved inland
Central America with is axis along 84W, reaching well into the
eastern Pacific near 05N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. This
wave is one of the players of the Special Features significant
rainfall event. Numerous strong convection is present from 15N to
20N between 82W and 86W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
just east of the wave axis from 12N to 14N.
The wave that was previously along 90W has been absorbed into
a broad area of low pressure that is in the eastern Pacific Ocean
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with Invest-EP95.
cyclonic
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters into the Atlantic through the
coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues southwestward to
19N20W and west-southwestward to 07N28W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 07N35W. It resumes west of a
tropical wave near 08N38W to 09N53W. Another segment extends
from 08N54W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm north of the trough between 22W-28W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered moderate convection S of 10N near the coast of Panama
and Colombia.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The western extension of rather modest Atlantic high pressure
extends westward across the northern Gulf. The present gradient
is allowing for generally light to gentle east to southeast winds
north of 24N, and gentle to moderate east winds south of 24N
except for light to variable winds south of 23N west of 95W.
Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range, except for 2 ft or less in the
NE Gulf.
satellite imagery shows an area of disorganized scattered
moderate convection over the SW Gulf south of 21N between 94W and
96W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf
north of 26N between 83W and 87W due to a weak surface trough
that extends from near 30N84W to 26N86W and a mid to upper-level
low seen over the general area of northern Florida.
For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure has formed over
the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. Some additional
development is possible over the next few days when the system
moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. By early next week
this system should move inland over Mexico, ending its chances of
additional development. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate
the Gulf waters through early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential
for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and
Central America.
A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean due
to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is sustaining fresh
to strong trades over most of the central Caribbean, except strong
to near gale-force trades south of 13N between 74W and 76W. Recent
scatterometer satellite data passes captures these winds. Seas
with these winds are in the 8 to 12 ft range. The scatterometer
satellite data passes also indicate fresh to strong trades over
the north-central sections of the basin between 72W and 85W. Seas
with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in east swell. Moderate to fresh
trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere.
For the forecast, the tropical wave in the western Caribbean will
contribute to scattered convection along with locally heavy
rainfall across the far western basin through Sat. The pressure
gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean associated with the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of
the central and southwestern Caribbean through early next week.
Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf
of Honduras will continue through the weekend
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 mb high center is analyzed at 28N68W while stronger high
pressure of 1029 mb is north of the area near 34N29W. High
pressure covers the area north of 19N. Moderate to fresh trades
are south of 23N, with the exception of fresh to strong speeds
along the coast of Hispaniola extending north to 21N per latest
scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with
these winds. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 23N
west of 64W, and light to gentle southeast to south winds are
north of 23N between 46W and 64W. Gentle to moderate northeast
winds are east of 46W, except for fresh to strong northeast winds
in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of
23N, except for higher seas of 5 to 8 ft in the vicinity of the
Canary Islands.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore and
along the Florida north of 26N. This activity reaches eastward
to near 77W.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will remain over
the region into the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh east
to southeast winds and moderate seas will continue south of 25N.
Fresh to strong east winds will pulse from late afternoons into
the overnights north of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.
$$
Aguirre
