000
AXNT20 KNHC 112325
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Mar 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2325 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for
northerly gales with severe gusts through 12/0300 UTC at least.
Very rough seas to around 13 ft (4 m) are likely with these winds.
Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on
their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.
Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A cold front will move off the southeastern United States coast on
Thursday evening. Tonight, ahead of the front, southwest winds
will increase to fresh to locally strong, with building seas to 7
ft. In the wake of the front on Thursday night, NW to N winds will
quickly increase, reaching gale-force speeds north of 29N and west
of 78.5W for a short period of time. Gale winds will decrease to
strong to near gale speeds late overnight. Seas will peak around
10 ft with these winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 03N18W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 01S30W to 02S40W. A cluster of showers
and thunderstorms is depicted south of 07N and west of 16.5W.
Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 05S to 02N
between 23W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from the eastern Atlantic high pressure system
west- southwestward to the central Gulf while low pressure is
over eastern Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
the low pressure is allowing for mainly moderate to fresh
southeast to south winds across the basin, with the exception of
light winds in the far NE Gulf and light to gentle south winds
over the far west-central portion. Seas are 5 to 7 ft west of 26W
and 2 to 5 ft east of 26W.
For the forecast, aforementioned ridge will shift eastward
tonight through the remainder of the week. A cold front will enter
the NW Gulf tonight, and move southeastward before stalling
across the SE Gulf Thu night, then dissipate there Fri through Fri
night. Expect strong to near gale-force N winds behind the front
through Thu evening before winds gradually diminish. Marine
conditions will improve significantly early Fri through Sun as
weak high pressure settles just N of the basin. Another cold front
will move into the NW Gulf Sun night and reach the SE Gulf by Mon
night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the
eastern Atlantic and relatively lower pressure found in northern
South America is maintaining fresh to strong trades over the
central basin. Mostly fresh trades are elsewhere across the basin.
Seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail in the south-central part of the sea,
5 to 7 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High
and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the
central basin through Thu morning. Fresh to locally strong NE to
E winds will also pulse near the Windward Passage, S of
Hispaniola, and the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The high pressure
will shift eastward Thu through Sat, leading to fresh to strong
winds becoming confined to the south-central Caribbean S of 13N
during that time, while marine conditions gradually improve area-
wide as the pressure gradient weakens. Large easterly trade wind
swell from the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside across the
Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight through early Sat
while. High pressure will build across the Atlantic to the N Sat
night through Mon, leading to fresh to strong trades and building
seas extending from the Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and
central Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning in effect for the western Atlantic and for
the Meteo- France forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya.
A 1033 mb high pressure system is north of the area centered SE of
the Azores. A ridge extends from the high west-southwestward to
central Florida and west-northwestward from there to roughly along
31N. Recent scatterometer satellite data reveals light to gentle
to moderate southeast to south winds from 27N to 29N west of 60W,
gentle to moderate east winds south of 27N west of 60W and mostly
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds elsewhere, including the
entrance to the Windward Passage. Another exception is northeast
winds of strong to near gale-force confined to north of 24N and
east of 20W, including the waters surrounding the Canary Islands
due to a strong pressure gradient resulting from the difference in
pressure between a 1034 mb high pressure system north of the area
and relatively lower pressure in NW Africa. Seas of 8 to 11 ft
prevail north 20N east of 45W, and 6 to 8 ft south of 20N and E
of 40W and from 07N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles.
Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere southeast of a line from 31N50W to
24N63W and to the southeastern Bahamas. Lower seas of 3 to 5 ft
are west of the same line.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail S of 25N through this evening, as Atlantic high
pressure continues along 32N. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop off northern Florida tonight ahead of an approaching cold
front. That front will move offshore of NE Florida by Thu evening
with fresh to gale-force winds and quickly building seas behind
it Thu night. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin to
stall as it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme S Florida Fri
morning, then drift NW and dissipate Fri evening. High pressure
ridging will then prevail across the northern waters Sat and
strengthen Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to locally
strong winds basin- wide, and rough seas over the SE waters.
$$ KRV
