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000
AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

As of 1500 UT85 a strong cold front extends over the northwest Gulf from the Florida panhandle near Veracruz. Several oil platforms - including KBBF, KEMK, KEIR, and KGHB - are indicating elevated gale force winds in the NW Gulf. The 1545 UTC scatterometer pass just arriving showed peak winds of 40-45 kt north winds east of Tampico. Buoy 42002's seas have quickly risen to about 13 ft in the same area. As the front continues moving southeast, gale force winds and building seas will be following the frontal passage, and these conditions will spread southward through the W Gulf today, then linger over the Bay of Campeche and offshore Veracruz tonight and early Wed. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

West Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic this evening and extend from 31N76W to Vero Beach, FL by late tonight. Gale force N winds are anticipated behind the front from late tonight through early Wed, before slowly diminishing. Seas will quickly build to near 15 ft by early Wed. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning...

A strong pressure gradient between the 1033 mb Azores high at 36N33W and a surface trough over NW Africa is producing gale- force N winds over the Canarias, Tarfaya and Agadir marine areas of MeteoFrance. These conditions are expected through early Wed before diminishing. For more details, refer to the MeteoFrance High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 42W and from 19N southward, is moving W around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 15N between 33W and 40W. This convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence produced by a vigorous upper-level trough west of the wave. The wave has a well-defined surface trough and is the combination of a true African easterly wave and the upper-level trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 61W from 19N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Drier air seen in the total precipitable water imagery is noted in the wave environment, limiting convection at this time. The wave is primarily observed from the GFS-based trough diagnostics, with little surface component noted.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 77W from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is also present near the wave limiting convection. The wave is identifiable primarily from the 700 mb trough diagnostics.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from there to 06N40W. In addition to the convection related to the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N to 07N between 25W and 33W.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect.

As of 1500 UTC, a strong cold front extends over the northwest Gulf from the Florida panhandle near Veracruz. Scatterometer, ship, and buoy data depicts gentle to moderate winds southeast of the front, while near gale and gale N winds are occurring northwest of the front. While no significant deep convection is observed in connection with the front, substantial shallow shower activity is noted from WSR-88D radar near southern Texas and the Florida peninsula.

A strong cold front extending from central Florida Panhandle to just S of Tuxpan Mexico will race to the SE Gulf by this evening, and clear the basin early Wed. Gale force winds and high seas will spread southward through the W Gulf today, then linger over the Bay of Campeche and offshore Veracruz tonight and early Wed. Strong winds Wed will diminish to fresh as high pressure behind the front lifts to the NE. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu, followed by strong winds and high seas over the SW Gulf Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A stationary front north of the Caribbean is contributing toward a weak north-south pressure gradient across the Caribbean. As a result, tradewinds are generally gentle to moderate with fresh conditions just north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is present over the Caribbean today, as subsident high pressure aloft prevails.

A weak pressure gradient across the basin will lead to generally moderate tradewinds over most of the basin. A strong cold front will stall across the Yucatan Channel Wed evening and produce N to NE winds across the NW Caribbean ahead of it.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin.

A stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from a 1018 mb low near 32N55W southwestward to 26N71W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 27N to 32N between 55W and 60W. Winds in association with the front are only gentle to moderate. Surface ridging prevails across the reminder of the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 36N33W.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast this afternoon, then begin to stall as it passes Bermuda and stretches SW across the Bahamas and Florida Straits on Wed. Gale force winds will follow this cold front off the northeast coast of Florida tonight, and shift eastward across the northern waters W of 72W through Wed morning. Strong to near gale force winds and high seas will prevail NW of the boundary through Thu. As the front dissipates late week, winds and seas will also diminish. Low pres is expected to develop along the old frontal remnants off the NE Florida and Georgia coasts Fri and drift NE, with potential for gales by Sat.

$$ Landsea

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