995
AXNT20 KNHC 131747
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Feb 13 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W to 04N19W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 03S42W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from the Equator to 07N and E of 15W, and also
from 03S to 01.5N between 37W and 44W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front meanders northwestward from central Florida to the
SE LA coast. A fog bank is seen on satellite along the FL coast
from near Ft Myers to the Big Bend region, with another fog bank
along the LA and SE TX coasts as well. Mariners should be aware of
the potential for lower visibility in these areas. Elsewhere, a
pair of highs in the Gulf maintains a ridge across the basin, with
gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevailing
basin-wide.
For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support light to
gentle winds across much of the Gulf, with the exception of
moderate winds across the western Gulf. Southerly return flow will
increase to fresh to strong speeds on Sat ahead of a cold front
that will enter the Gulf waters this weekend. Strong S to SW winds
and rough seas are expected in the North- central and NE Gulf
with this frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move SE
of the area by Mon. High pres will build in the wake of the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin, with
fresh to strong E to NE winds and 6-8 ft seas in the south-
central to SW basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas
dominate the north-central and eastern Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Mainly gentle NE winds and
2-5 ft seas are noted at the northwestern Caribbean.
For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the
coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough
seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will develop over
the Windward Passage and S of Dominican Republic this weekend as
a high pressure center passes N of the area and tightens the
pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas will prevail through early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda
across 31N56W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers
are seen along and near this feature. Rough seas and moderate to
fresh NW winds are behind the front. Ahead of the front, a pre-
frontal trough is analyzed from 26N57W to 31N54W, with scattered
moderate convection occurring N of 30N and W of 50W. To the south,
another trough extends from 22N61W southwestward along the
northern Hispaniola coast. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along and near the trough axis.
Over the far the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front reaches
southwestward from the Moroccan coast near 30N10W across the
Canary Islands to near 26N34W. Rough seas and moderate to fresh N
winds also follow this front. The pressure difference between a
1033 mb high near 35N30W and lower pressures in the deep tropics
support fresh to strong trades across much of the remaining
Atlantic E of 60W, along with seas of 6-10 ft. Moderate or weaker
winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere, with slight seas observed
in the Bahamas.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N58W to
south Florida. Rough seas prevail in the vicinity of the front.
The front will shift eastward with high pressure building in the
wake of the front. S winds will strengthen offshore north and
central Florida on Sun in advance of another cold front that will
move off the SE U.S. coast on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and
building seas are expected in the wake of the front.
$$
Adams
