000
AXNT20 KNHC 312222
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Apr 01 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western and Central Atlantic Large Swell:
A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the north-
central Atlantic across 31N45W to 25N57W. A shear line curves
westward from 25N57W to off northern Hispaniola. A broad area of
strong NE winds is noted N of this boundary, impacting most waters
between 70W and the front. Waves from these winds combined with
significant northerly swell is leading to very rough seas of up to
16 ft in a zone from 21N to 30N between 50W and 68W. Rough seas
cover waters N of 19N between 40W and the Bahamas. The swell
should gradually decay over the next couple of days, with seas
likely falling below 12 ft by Wed night.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the following website:
MIAHSFAT2.shtm'>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough is confined to Africa. The ITCZ extends from
02N14W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed south of 05N and between 14W and 28W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into
the eastern Gulf waters, supporting mainly moderate SE winds and
seas. Fresh E winds have developed offshore the northern Yucatan
Peninsula in association with a surface trough over the peninsula
and also through the Florida Straits and offshore western Cuba,
where the pressure gradient is slightly tighter. Convergent low-
level winds in the north-central basin has induced scattered
moderate convection N of 25N between 87W and 91W.
For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf
waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are
expected over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half
of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for
strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night.
A cold front may enter the western Gulf Sunday.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and lower
pressure over South America is maintain moderate to fresh trades
over the basin, with strong NE to E winds through the Windward
Passage, S of Hispaniola, and offshore Colombia. Locally rough
seas are present in each of these areas, as well as through
Atlantic passages, where N swell is propagating through. Previous
convection over the Caribbean has mostly dissipated early this
evening.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of
the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period,
pulsing to near gale at night through midweek. This pattern will
also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu nigh.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the Special Features section for information about the
large swell.
A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N45W and
continues southwestward to 25N57W, where it transitions into a
shear line to just off northern Hispaniola. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm of these boundaries. Please see
the Special Features section above for details on the winds and
seas in association with this front.
A large plume of Saharan dust envelops the far NE Atlantic,
especially north of 22N and east of 20W. Mariners in these waters
should use caution due to reduced visibility. The central and
eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a broad subtropical
ridge. Fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found north of 22N
and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure will prevail
across the forecast waters through the remainder of the week into
the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very
rough seas, are expected across most of the offshore forecast
waters through the remainder of the week. Winds will diminish this
weekend with seas slowly subsiding.
$$
Konarik
