AXNT20 KNHC 021050

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1020 mb high pressure to the north of the area and 1008 mb low pressure over Colombia is leading to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean. Gale conditions are expected tonight offshore Colombia with seas to 13 ft within the gale area.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low in the NW Gulf near 26N94W to near Tamiahua, Mexico. An earlier ASCAT pass showed gale force N winds occurring in the waters offshore of Tampico, Mexico behind the front. These gales will reach the waters offshore Veracruz Mexico later this morning as the cold front moves southward along the coast of Mexico. Seas will build to 10-12 ft this morning. Conditions will improve late tonight.

Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds are expected Wed through Wed night in the western Atlantic, north of 27N, in association with an area of low pressure and an attendant cold front. Expect gales on both sides of the low and front as they move eastward on Wed. By Wed night, the front will extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas. Seas in the area of the gales will build to 12 to 15 ft.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details about these Gale Warnings.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 02N31W to 0N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N-06N between 20W-30W.


A cold front extends from 28N82W to a 1014 mb low in the NW Gulf near 26N94W to near Tamiahua, Mexico. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front across the north-central gulf waters and portions of the NE basin while dense fog is being reported behind the front in the NW gulf. An earlier scatterometer pass showed gale force winds over the Tampico adjacent waters. See the special features section for further details.

The portion of the front extending from Florida to the low will stall today. The low pressure will drag the cold front in the SW gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula through this evening. Gale-force winds occurring off the Tampico region will reach the Veracruz area later this morning. The front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near NW Yucatan peninsula on Wed and move across the SE Gulf Wed night into Thu.


Mid-level ridging dominates the western Caribbean, leading to subsidence and dry conditions. An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic to the NE Caribbean Sea. This is enhancing scattered clouds and isolated showers across the eastern Caribbean.

Minimal gale-force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue to blow elsewhere in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong trades will diminish early this evening. Winds of the same speed are forecast to pulse over Hipaniola adjacent waters tonight and Wed night. North swell will continue to support large seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands today. A second swell event will reach the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles Thu night and continue through the weekend.


A cold front extending from 31N75W to 29N81W will stall from 27N65W to Cape Canaveral early this evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected N of this boundary today. The front will transition to a warm front in response to low pressure forecast to move off the coast of the Carolinas on early Wed morning. The low pressure will strengthen and track NE through Thu night pushing a strong cold front across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas. This front will be preceded and followed by strong to minimal gale-force winds and building seas. Gale conditions across the northern waters are expected Wed and Wed night. In its wake, high pressure will build over the area through Fri night.

$$ Ramos