842
AXNT20 KNHC 080550
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jan 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 06N18W. An
ITCZ continues westward from 06N18W across 03N30W to 04N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the ITCZ from 01N to
03N between 17W and 28W, and from 04N to 06N between 37W and 43W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon
trough from 03N to 05N between 10W and 17W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A diurnal surface trough is triggering scattered showers at the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high at the
east-central Gulf is in control much of the Gulf. Moderate to
fresh SE to S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the
west-central and northwestern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh ENE
to E winds with 3 to 4 ft exist at the eastern Bay of Campeche,
near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Yucatan Channel. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.
For the forecast, strong winds will pulse offshore of south Texas
and northeastern Mexico tonight through Thu, and locally rough
seas may accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh SE winds over
the western half of the Gulf will expand eastward over much of the
Gulf on Thu, with these winds continuing through Fri. Looking
ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf late Fri
night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected
in the wake of the front as it moves over the basin into early
next week. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico
and Veracruz, Mexico Sat into Mon morning.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1019 mb high northeast of the Bahamas sustains a trade-wind
pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trade winds
are creating widely scattered showers from the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula eastward to near Jamaica. Fresh to strong NE
trade winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are seen at the south-central
basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted at
the north-central and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to
moderate NE to ESE winds with seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force NE to E
winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia through this
weekend as low pressure prevails over the region. Rough seas will
occur within and surrounding these winds. Strong winds are also
expected each afternoon and evening in the Gulf of Venezuela
starting on Thu afternoon. Fresh NE to E winds will occur over the
central Caribbean tonight, including through the Windward
Passage, with fresh winds expanding over much of the basin through
late week as the pressure gradient increases between the
Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Otherwise, pulsing
strong winds are expected through the Windward Passage and south
of Hispaniola nightly starting on Thu night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends southwestward from a 1016 mb low across
31N44W to 26N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and
up to 240 nm east of the front. A surface trough/dissipating
stationary front reaches southwestward from 26N50W to a 1014 mb
low near 21N59W. Farther south, a surface trough embedded within
the trade-wind flow causes scattered showers from 06N to 11N
between 24W and 33W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at
the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
Moderate with locally fresh NE to SW to W winds and seas of 4 to
6 ft are evident north of 28N between 60W and 75W, and in the
Great Bahama Banks. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SE to SW
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells are noted north
of 20N between 30W and the Florida coast/Bahamas. At the central
Atlantic north of 20N between 35W and 30W, moderate to fresh with
locally strong SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in large NE
swells. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N between 35W and
45W, moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 6 to 7
ft are found. To the west, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4
to 6 ft seas exist north of 04N and west of 45W. For the remainder
of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW to W
winds and moderate seas occurring west of 67W and north of 29N
will slowly diminish tonight as a surface trough moves eastward.
Gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are then
expected over the northwestern tropical Atlantic on Thu as a weak
pressure gradient develops. High pressure building off the coast
of the eastern United States on Fri will support moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds and building seas over the region
through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to
move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, leading to
fresh to locally strong NW winds and seas building to 9 ft in the
wake of the front.
$$
Chan
