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AXNT20 KNHC 312320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...Heavy rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing southern Mexico and much of Central America. Areas of thunderstorms continue to impact portions of Central America from Nicaragua northwestward to Southern Mexico. The low level circulation of Tropical Storm Amanda has dissipated over Guatemala today, but the focused area of circulation within the larger Central American Gyre has led to torrential rainfall over portions of Guatemala and El Salvador over the past 12 to 24 hours.

Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. A continued period of active and wet weather, with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate the current situation, with the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details.

Tropical Storm Amanda dissipated over Guatemala today. The remnants may rotate around the larger circulation of the Central American Gyre and move out over water in the Bay of Campeche. There is a medium possibility that the remnant circulation of Amanda may develop into a tropical cyclone in the SW Gulf when it emerges over water.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N15W to 05N29W. The ITCZ continues from 05N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N- 010N between the coast of Liberia west to 20W. Scattered showers are noted from 04N to 09N between 20W and 30W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the coast of Brazil from 02S- 04N west of 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the next few days.

A stationary front extends along the northern Gulf coast from Panama City Florida to southern Louisiana to Houston Texas. A Surface trough reaches northward from the far southwest Gulf to off Brownsville Texas. Numerous thunderstorms are active over the Bay of Campeche and in the Yucatan peninsula, associated to the Central American Gyre. Fresh to strong winds are over the SW Gulf to the west of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

A weak stationary front along the northern Gulf will dissipate tonight. However, a favorable middle to upper level pattern will continue to favor the continuation of showers and tstms in this portion of the basin through Fri. Heavier showers are expected in the southern half of the basin associated with the Central American Gyre, which is forecast to be nearly stationary the entire week. Strong to near gale force winds and high seas are expected in the Bay of Campeche through Wed associated with this feature.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the next few days.

The Central American Gyre is producing showers and thunderstorms across much of Central America and waters offshore central America. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the Gulf of Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central America and southern Mexico during the upcoming week supporting heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean. Winds and seas will also increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off Yucatan through Fri as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild to north of the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development of fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean Tue through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough reaches from near 30N68W through the southern Bahamas toward the far eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered showers and tstorms are active from 23N- 30N E of the trough to 63W. A surface trough extends from 31N50W to 26N53W. Showers are noted within 90 nm E of the trough. High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 26N59W. Gentle to moderate tradewinds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail over the open waters N of 20N. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range W of the Bahamas.

A cold front will sink into the NW offshore waters and extend from just east of Bermuda SW to the northern Bahamas by Mon afternoon. The front will stall along 25N by Tue afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will increase to fresh to strong Mon and Tue. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed through Fri.

$$ AL/MTorres

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