540
AXNT20 KNHC 201046
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jun 20 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 21W from
4N to 15N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. satellite imagery
shows what appears to be a small cyclonic circulation near 09N22W.
Only isolated showers are noted with this feature, however,
scattered showers and few thunderstorms are within 180 nm west of
the wave along the monsoon trough from 08N to 09N.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 37W from 05N
to 16N, moving westward at an estimated speed of 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 09N to
11N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180
nm either side of the wave axis from 05N to 09N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 52W from 04N
to 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm either side of the wave
axis from 04N to 08N.
A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 74W south
of 17N to inland Colombia. It is moving westward at around 15 kt.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along 13N17W and
extends southwestward to 08N22W and westward to 08N26W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N35W. It resumes west
of a tropical wave near 08N38W and continues to 08N51W. Aside
from convection related to the tropical waves discussed above,
only scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm south of
the ITCZ between 46W-49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The western extension of Atlantic high pressure ridging reaches,
in a rather weak mode, to the eastern Gulf. The gradient between
it and relatively lower pressures in the western Gulf and in
Texas is allowing for generally light to gentle anticyclonic winds
and slight seas in the NE Gulf and for moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds elsewhere, except for higher winds of fresh to
strong speeds in the SW Gulf as highlighted in an overnight ASCAT
satellite data pass. Seas in that part of the Gulf are in the
moderate range as indicated by buoy 42055 near 22N94W.
Conventional satellite imagery animation reveals abundant
cloudiness over the western Gulf waters, including the Bay of
Campeche. Deep tropical moisture is advecting north-northwestward
across the western Gulf, and is keeping atmospheric conditions
rather unsettled leading to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, some of which may be accompanied by gusty winds and
locally higher seas.
For the forecast, the unsettled weather conditions over the
western Gulf will linger through Sat. Otherwise, fresh northeast
to east winds will pulse each afternoon and evening during
the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the
eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks
westward across the region. Moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds along with moderate seas are expected over the central and
western Gulf through the weekend, then diminishing early next
week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressures in the far southern Caribbean
and in Colombia is allowing for fresh to strong trades
to persist across the central part of the basin to Colombia and
the northwest Venezuela, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas
with these winds are 8 to 12 ft, with the highest of the
seas near 12N76W. Mostly fresh trades are elsewhere along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft south of
15N between 68W and 72W and seas of 7 to 10 ft from 15N to 18N
between 72W and 76W. Recent altimeter satellite data passes
highlighted these values. Lower seas of 4 to 6 ft are confined to
north of 20N between 77W and 85W, where gentle to moderate trades
exist. Deep tropical moisture is confined to west of 80W. Water
vapor satellite imagery depicts very good upper-level outflow
over this area of deep moisture. This is helping to sustain
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 80W. This
includes inland areas of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient in place will continue
to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the central
Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to near gale
force off Colombia at night through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 28N59W, with a ridge
extending westward to Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This is the main feature controlling the general weather pattern
throughout. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively
lower pressures found from the Caribbean Sea southward is
allowing for moderate to fresh trades to be south of 25N. Seas
with these winds are in the range of about 3 to 5 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft east of the Bahamas. Even higher
seas of 6 to 8 ft in east swell over the tropical north Atlantic
waters as noted in an overnight altimeter satellite data pass
over those waters. Lower seas of 3 ft or less are west of the
Bahamas, including the Straits of Florida. Light to gentle winds
are elsewhere across the basin with seas of 3 to 4 ft, except as
noted in the paragraph below that describes an eastern Atlantic
cold front.
Broad mid to upper-level troughing in combination with a weak
surface trough that extends from north of the area southwestward
to near 19N61W is helping to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of 29N between 35W and 45W along with another
area of scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 30N between
52W and 62W. Over the eastern part of the area a cold front is
analyzed from 31N21W southwestward to near 27N32W, however, no
convection is occurring with this feature. Moderate to fresh
southwest winds are east of the front to near 38W along with seas
of 5 to 6 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge along
28N will reform into a broad high pressure area just north of the
area W of 70W during the weekend. It will change little into
early next week as a weak front or trough passes to the southeast
of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to
locally rough seas will continue south of about 25N over the next
few days while gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere.
$$
Aguirre
