000
AXNT20 KNHC 262015
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and extends S then SW to 03N22W to
02N40W. The ITCZ continues from 02N41W to 02.5N47W to the coast of
Brazil near 02.5N51W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 22W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted S of 04N between 22W and 39W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A couple of weak troughs are analyzed over the N and NE-Gulf.
Otherwise, broad high pressure prevails. Light to gentle winds and
seas of 2 ft or less are east of 87W and gentle to moderate SE
winds and 2-4 ft seas are west of 87W.
For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along the coast of Mexico reaching offshore
Veracruz will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas
over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds
with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin
through the middle of the week. In addition, a diurnal trough will
pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during
the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a cold front will
enter the northern Gulf waters Wed night into Thu.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A relatively weak pressure pattern exists across the basin, with
light to gentle E-SE winds, except gentle to moderate east of 70W
and also west of 85W. Seas are 2 ft or less between 70W and 85W,
and 2-4 ft elsewhere, locally higher in Atlantic passages.
For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
water north of the Greater Antilles will contribute to a weaker
than usual pressure gradient across the central and eastern
Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected.
Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east
and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high pressure
builds again N of the area, behind a cold front moving across the
western Atlantic.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A pair of dissipating frontal boundaries are over the SW N
Atlantic offshore waters. A trough extends from 31N43W to 51N53W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are north of 24N within 240 nm ahead of
the trough. Otherwise, gentle of moderate winds dominate the open
waters. except locally fresh near the coast of Africa north of 14N
and east of 20W. Seas are 7-10 ft in NW swell north of 28N
between 40W and 55W. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 67W, and 4-7 ft
across the remainder of the waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, an old frontal trough lingering N
of the Greater Antilles will remain in place through late today
and gradually dissipate by Mon. Winds and seas will continue to
diminish through this evening behind a weakening frontal boundary
located over the NE waters. A cold front is forecast to enter the
waters off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to
South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by
Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
and moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of
the front through Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold front
will likely move off NE Florida late Thu or Thu night.
$$
Lewitsky
