000
AXNT20 KNHC 110806
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jan 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Gale force N
winds have diminished slightly near Tampico, Mexico while they
continue S of 22N offshore Veracruz with an earlier ASCAT
scatterometer pass showing winds around 45 kt and they could be
slightly higher. Gale conditions are expected in Veracruz
adjacent waters through Mon. Winds may continue to peak around 45
kt near Veracruz early today. Seas will continue to build and
likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz today and tonight.
The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the
Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening.
Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into
Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near
08N13W, then runs southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil at 00.5N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 22W and
52.5W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western
Bay of Campeche. Please read the Special Features section above
for details.
As previously mentioned, a strong cold front extends from the
Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong to near
gale force northerly winds are behind the front with gale force
winds S of 22N, along with rough to very rough seas. A narrow
band of showers and thunderstorms is along the front, primarily S
of 25N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen on
conventional infrared satellite imagery in the eastern Bay of
Campeche with a surface trough analyzed along the W coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the area is under the
influence of a surface ridge, that extends from near Bermuda,
across Florida into the Gulf region. Gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and moderate seas are ahead of the front, with the exception
of slight seas within 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula.
For the forecast, as the front continues to move through the
basin winds will peak around 45 kt near into today. Seas will
continue to build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of
Veracruz today and tonight. The front will weaken and stall from
near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually
improve Mon night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed.
The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds
and building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting
SE of the basin Thu.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over
the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America
results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are in the rough range.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas
prevail. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade
wind flow, are moving across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.
For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through tonight due to the pressure
gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low
pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. After
tonight, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Pulsing
moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the
central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and
Hispaniola adjacent waters through at least the early part of the
week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A decaying
cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early this
week where it will stall and wash out. Another front may move into
the NW basin Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad 1027 mb high pressure system centered NE of Bermuda near
32.5N52.5W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, Florida
and the Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N37W to
24N49W, with an inverted trough analyzed near 55W from 20N to 29N.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail across
most of the waters N of 20N and W of 50W except weaker right under
the ridge axis. An area of showers and thunderstorms is on the E
side of the inverted trough. This convective activity covers
roughly the waters from 20N to 28N between 50W and 57W. Farther
E, high pressure of 1028 mb located near the Madeira Islands
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in
the vicinity of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ is generating a large
area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from 07N to 25N E of 35W to
the coast of W Africa, along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh
trade winds and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will emerge off the NE
Florida coast later today. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough
seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from
Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the
front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue.
The next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night, reaching
from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu night, with
associated gale winds possible N of 29N Thu night.
$$
Lewitsky
