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000
AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a tropical wave located along 45W or about 950 miles east- southeast of the southern Windward Islands. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave, and mainly from 05N to 12N and between 40W and 55W. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 08N45W. The disturbance is moving W around 15 kts. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8-10 ft are just ahead of the wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas later today. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Azores High combined with a persisting low pressure area over Western Sahara is inducing gale force N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone of Agadir. These gales are expected to continue through 28/00 UTC. Seas will likely be 10 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Four tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. One of them has the potential of tropical cyclone formation and is described in the Special Features section.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 18W, south of 16N and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 14W and 22W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of 15N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N and between 26W and 36W.

A third tropical wave has its axis along 61W, south of 16N and moving W around 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles, mainly S of Guadeloupe, and across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Enhanced rainfall and gusty winds will continue across the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through this morning and spread across the ABC islands later today and tonight. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong trades are associated with this feature.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 11N17W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N19W to 07N30W and continues from 07N33W to 08N44W and then from 08N47W to 06N53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from SE Louisiana to a weak 1014 mb low pressure system near SW Florida. A few showers are seen near the trough axis. Also, evening storms over the Yucatan peninsula have moved westward over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate that moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found over the eastern Bay of Campeche, while light to moderate winds are prevalent elsewhere. Seas of 2-3 ft are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche and 1-2 ft in the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak surface trough extends from coastal Louisiana to Southwest Florida and will drift westward over the next few days. Weak low pressure is expected to form from the remnants of the trough across the north central Gulf Mon night and drift west and inland through Wed. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is currently producing showers and tstorms with gusty winds across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Waves section for details.

The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean Sea through the coast of northern Costa Rica to NW Colombia. Satellite imagery depict a few showers within 120 nm of the monsoon trough. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms that formed earlier this evening have also spilled over the waters south of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, the weather conditions are fairly tranquil.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to locally strong trades across the south-central and eastern Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring in the NE Caribbean and offshore northern Colombia. Seas in the described waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will continue through early Mon as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue, possibly as a tropical cyclone, and move quickly through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed through Wed night, through the central Caribbean Thu and across the western Caribbean late Thu through Fri. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above for details on the tropical waves traversing the basin and the gale near the coast of Morocco.

A couple of weak surface trough between Bermuda and the Bahamas are triggering some showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly N of 21N and between 63W and 79W. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that some of the strongest storms are producing fresh to strong southerly winds. Moderate to fresh trades are present S of 22N and W of 60W, along with seas of 3-5 ft. The rest of the area W of 60W is experiencing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong ridge positioned between Newfoundland and the Azores. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures across the deep tropics result in fresh to strong trades S of 23N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in the area described are 6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 09N45W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic experiences moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a trough extending from near 30N76W southwestward to 27N80W will drift westward and weaken during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening, possibly as a tropical cyclone, then move quickly through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed through Wed night, and the central Caribbean Thu and Thu evening. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves W across the region.

$$ Delgado

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