000
AXNT20 KNHC 062349
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Dec 7 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...
A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N67W to
central Cuba. A secondary cold front extends from 31N73W to the
Port St. Lucie, Florida coast. Strong to gale force W winds are
occurring behind the front with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of
the front. Seas range 8 to 13 ft, with the highest seas occurring
near the strongest winds. The 8 ft seas extend as far south as off
the West Palm Beach coast. Gale force winds and high seas are
expected both ahead of and behind this front N of 28N through Thu
night. Strong winds will diminish by Fri morning with rough to
very rough seas due to the swell from the event lasting through
the weekend.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to 04N44W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 31W
and 51W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
The tail-end of a cold front extends off the Tampa Bay, Florida
coast to the central Gulf. A trough is noted across the western
Bay of Campeche along the Mexico coast. Mostly fresh to strong
winds cover the basin with moderate winds along the northwest and
north-central Gulf coast. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the Bay of
Campeche where the strongest winds are occurring. Elsewhere, seas
range 4 to 6 ft.
For the forecast, high pressure is building over the area in the
wake of the recent cold front. A tight gradient between the high
pressure and a trough that extends from Tampico to 18N94W is
allowing for fresh to strong northeast winds over the SW Gulf, and
for fresh N to NE winds in the southern half of the central Gulf.
These winds will diminish by early on Thu. The high pressure will
shift eastward into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate to
fresh return flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat, ahead
of the next cold front that is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat
evening. Strong to near gale force winds are likely behind the
front, with gale force winds possible in the SW Gulf and over a
portion of the w-central Gulf zones. The front is expected to
reach from west- central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by lat
Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to
northern Belize. Isolated thunderstorms are noted off the Belize
coast near the front. Behind the front, NE fresh winds are noted
with seas 5 to 7 ft. Surface ridging extends across the rest of
the area. This is leading to a small area of fresh to strong winds
along the Colombia and Venezuela coast with seas 6 to 8 ft.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail in the eastern
and central basin. Seas range 4 to 6 ft across the rest of the
basin. Seas 6 to 8 ft are noted on the eastern side of the
Windward Islands due to NE swell across the Tropical Atlantic
waters. No other significant convection is noted in the Caribbean
at this time.
For the forecast, large NE swell is expected to continue across
the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles
through Thu. A cold front extending from east-central Cuba to
inland northern Belize will reach from the N coast of Hispaniola
to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night, where it will remain nearly
stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of the
front, across the Yucatan Channel and in the lee of Cuba. Strong
winds will develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening with the
front and expand across most of the east and central Caribbean by
Sat. By late Sun, the majority of these winds are expected to be
over the central Caribbean
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
the Gale Warning in the Atlantic.
Widespread strong winds associated with the cold front discussed
in the Special Features section is noted across the western
Atlantic with rough seas. Isolated thunderstorms are noted within
60 nm of the primary front.
In the central Atlantic, surface ridging extends across the area
anchored by a 1019 mb high near 26N42W. Light to gentle winds are
noted under the high with seas 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh trade
winds are noted from 06N to 19N due to the pressure gradient
between the high pressure and the ITCZ. This is also where NE
swell is noted east of the Lesser Antilles with seas 8 to 9 ft.
North of the high, seas 6 to 8 ft are noted N of 28N between 37W
and 52W.
In the eastern Atlantic, a decaying front extends from the
Mauritania coast near 25N15W to 15N36W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted ahead of this boundary from 12N to 25N between
16W and 35W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the region with
locally fresh winds noted north of the frontal boundary. Seas
range 4 to 6 ft.
For the forecast W of 55W, the primary cold front will move SE
and reach from near 31N61W to eastern Cuba by late tonight, then
weaken from near 31N49W to the N coast of Hispaniola Thu evening.
Gale force winds and high seas are expected both ahead of and
behind this front, to the north of 28N from through Thu afternoon.
The gale winds will shift E of the offshore zones Thu afternoon.
The front will stall and weaken along 20N Fri through Sat as
strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. On Sun,
the front will dissipate as fresh to strong southerly flow sets up
over the waters east of northeast Florida to 69W in advance of
the next cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the
NW forecast waters late Sun, followed by fresh to strong west to
northwest winds. Seas will build both east and west of this cold
front.
$$
AReinhart
