AXNT20 KNHC 062349

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Dec 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC.


...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N67W to central Cuba. A secondary cold front extends from 31N73W to the Port St. Lucie, Florida coast. Strong to gale force W winds are occurring behind the front with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front. Seas range 8 to 13 ft, with the highest seas occurring near the strongest winds. The 8 ft seas extend as far south as off the West Palm Beach coast. Gale force winds and high seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front N of 28N through Thu night. Strong winds will diminish by Fri morning with rough to very rough seas due to the swell from the event lasting through the weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to 04N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 31W and 51W.


The tail-end of a cold front extends off the Tampa Bay, Florida coast to the central Gulf. A trough is noted across the western Bay of Campeche along the Mexico coast. Mostly fresh to strong winds cover the basin with moderate winds along the northwest and north-central Gulf coast. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the Bay of Campeche where the strongest winds are occurring. Elsewhere, seas range 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure is building over the area in the wake of the recent cold front. A tight gradient between the high pressure and a trough that extends from Tampico to 18N94W is allowing for fresh to strong northeast winds over the SW Gulf, and for fresh N to NE winds in the southern half of the central Gulf. These winds will diminish by early on Thu. The high pressure will shift eastward into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate to fresh return flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat, ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. Strong to near gale force winds are likely behind the front, with gale force winds possible in the SW Gulf and over a portion of the w-central Gulf zones. The front is expected to reach from west- central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by lat Sun.


A cold front extends across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to northern Belize. Isolated thunderstorms are noted off the Belize coast near the front. Behind the front, NE fresh winds are noted with seas 5 to 7 ft. Surface ridging extends across the rest of the area. This is leading to a small area of fresh to strong winds along the Colombia and Venezuela coast with seas 6 to 8 ft. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail in the eastern and central basin. Seas range 4 to 6 ft across the rest of the basin. Seas 6 to 8 ft are noted on the eastern side of the Windward Islands due to NE swell across the Tropical Atlantic waters. No other significant convection is noted in the Caribbean at this time.

For the forecast, large NE swell is expected to continue across the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. A cold front extending from east-central Cuba to inland northern Belize will reach from the N coast of Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night, where it will remain nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of the front, across the Yucatan Channel and in the lee of Cuba. Strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening with the front and expand across most of the east and central Caribbean by Sat. By late Sun, the majority of these winds are expected to be over the central Caribbean


Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on the Gale Warning in the Atlantic.

Widespread strong winds associated with the cold front discussed in the Special Features section is noted across the western Atlantic with rough seas. Isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the primary front.

In the central Atlantic, surface ridging extends across the area anchored by a 1019 mb high near 26N42W. Light to gentle winds are noted under the high with seas 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted from 06N to 19N due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and the ITCZ. This is also where NE swell is noted east of the Lesser Antilles with seas 8 to 9 ft. North of the high, seas 6 to 8 ft are noted N of 28N between 37W and 52W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a decaying front extends from the Mauritania coast near 25N15W to 15N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of this boundary from 12N to 25N between 16W and 35W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the region with locally fresh winds noted north of the frontal boundary. Seas range 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the primary cold front will move SE and reach from near 31N61W to eastern Cuba by late tonight, then weaken from near 31N49W to the N coast of Hispaniola Thu evening. Gale force winds and high seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the north of 28N from through Thu afternoon. The gale winds will shift E of the offshore zones Thu afternoon. The front will stall and weaken along 20N Fri through Sat as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. On Sun, the front will dissipate as fresh to strong southerly flow sets up over the waters east of northeast Florida to 69W in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the NW forecast waters late Sun, followed by fresh to strong west to northwest winds. Seas will build both east and west of this cold front.

$$ AReinhart