000
AXNT20 KNHC 112257
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Apr 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Meteo-France has issued a Gale warning for the area of Agadir,
which will begin on 12/15Z through 13/00Z. Sustained northerly
gale-force winds are expected in the area, with higher gusts.
For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
product, listed on their website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N20W to 03S45W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 00N to 15N and E of 24W, and from
S of 03N and W of 32W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure anchored over the SE United States continues to
impart surface ridging across the Gulf, providing for moderate or
weaker E to SE winds and moderate seas.
For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern United States will
maintain mostly moderate to fresh east winds across the basin
through tonight. The high pressure will strengthen some through
late Sun night as it shifts southward over the western Atlantic
through early next week before it weakens into midweek. A ridge
will stretch west- southwestward from the high to across the
northern Gulf through the period. A tightening pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure to its southeast associated
with a frontal boundary will funnel pulsing fresh to strong east
winds through the Straits of Florida and into the southeastern
Gulf starting on Mon. Seas across the basin will be at a mostly
moderate state, except reaching a rough state, at times, in the
Straits of Florida beginning on Mon.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The present synoptic weather pattern, with a cold front north of
Hispaniola over the W Atlantic, and high pressures centered over
the SE United States and in the north-central Atlantic, limits
fresh to strong trades to the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia, with 7-9 ft seas. Within the Windward Passage,
fresh NE winds are analyzed as some of the post-frontal airmass
drains through the passage. Moderate NE winds prevail elsewhere in
the NW Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. In the remaining sections of
the Eastern and Central Caribbean, trades are moderate or weaker
with 4-7 ft seas.
For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds and rough
seas to 10 ft over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend
and into early next week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and
building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola starting tonight. Winds and seas will
diminish late next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N61W to the coast of Hispaniola near
20N70W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds, and 7-9 ft seas,
prevail west of the frontal boundary across the W Atlantic.
Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. The tropical
Atlantic is dominated by 1035 mb high pressure centered near the
Azores. Moderate to fresh trades prevail north of 15N, with
moderate or weaker trades south of 15N. 8-10 ft seas, in decaying
long period NE swell, are analyzed from 05N to 25N between 20W and
60W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft in open waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure is building behind the
aforementioned cold front over the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient
between these two features will maintain mostly fresh northeast
winds west of the front through Sun. Winds become fresh to strong
starting Sun night as the high pressure strengthens some. The
winds then diminish back to mostly fresh speeds starting Tue south
of 28N as the high pressure weakens, with an associated ridge
near 31N. Rough seas from large NE swell will linger into the
start of next week between Bermuda and the Bahamas.
$$
ERA
