539
AXNT20 KNHC 200319
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Feb 20 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 05N13W to 02N30W and to 02S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed south of 05N and between 15W and
35W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high pressure system
centered east of Florida and lower pressures in Mexico and Texas
support moderate to fresh southerly winds over much of the basin.
However, a tighter gradient is noted north of the Yucatan
peninsula resulting in fresh to strong SE winds. Seas north of
Yucatan are 5-8 ft, while slight to moderate are present
elsewhere.
The southerly wind flow in the western Gulf waters is lifting
smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward. Aside from
lower visibility from the smoke mainly over the SW portion of the
basin, dense fog is likely to develop over the coastal waters of
the northern and western Gulf coast.
For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds
and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf
through Fri before the high shifts E. Locally strong E to SE winds
will pulse in the south- central basin, north of the Yucatan
Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as a trough
develops daily over the region. A strong cold front will move into
the northern Gulf Sat evening and shift across the basin through
early next week. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected
offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Widespread fresh to
strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the
wake of the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An expansive subtropical ridge located north of the islands
supports strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas
in the south-central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicate that the strongest winds are present north of
Colombia. Fresh to strong E-SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found
in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas are occurring in the north-central and eastern
Caribbean and much of the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and
slight seas are evident in the lee of Cuba and between Cuba and
Jamaica. Scattered showers are seen within 120 nm of the coast of
Costa Rica and western Panama.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
to the north, along 27N, and the Colombian low will support fresh
to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through this
weekend. Winds may reach near-gale force each night offshore of
northern Colombia, with rough seas expected within and to the west
of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds and
occasionally rough seas will pulse in the eastern Gulf of Honduras
into early Sun. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are
expected over the rest of the Caribbean basin through the forecast
period. Rough seas will develop E of the Lesser Antilles tonight
into the weekend as N swell progresses through the central
tropical Atlantic. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move
through the Gulf of America this weekend and move into the NW
Caribbean early Mon, reaching from far eastern Cuba to near the
Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a
broad subtropical ridge that maintains moderate or weaker winds.
Seas of 7-9 ft are found between 55W and 65W, while 4-7 ft are
noted west of 65W. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and a cold front north of the area sustain
moderate to fresh westerly winds and rough seas north of 30N and
between 50W and 57W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
to rough seas are evident south of 20N and west of 35W.
A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N39W to 24N69W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the
front to 35W and north of 28N. Decaying NW swell is also producing
rough seas in the central Atlantic between 25W and 55W and north
of 20N. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and
rough seas are occurring east of 25N and north of 22N. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N swell occurring east of 65W will
subside from west to east through Sat. Elsewhere, 1019 mb high
pressure located NE of the Bahamas will shift slowly E through
the weekend, producing moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds
offshore of northern Florida into this weekend. Moderate or
weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold
front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with
strong NW winds and rapidly building seas behind the front
through early next week.
$$
Delgado
