000
AXNT20 KNHC 072141
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jul 8 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28.5W from west of the
Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Drier air at the lower levels are infiltrating this wave, with
only isolated and slight convection present.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 18N southward,
and moving westward around 25 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this wave.
Another tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean
Islands from 17N southward to far eastern Venezuela. It is moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered showers are evident
across the Windward Islands.
A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from near the
Yucatan Channel southward across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua,
and western Costa Rica. It is moving westward 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are
noted near the Yucatan Channel, and off the coast of Nicaragua in
the SW Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Mauritania and Western Sahara, then curves southwestward to
06N29W. An ITCZ continues west-northwestward from 06N29W to
09N43W, and from 09N46W to 10N58W. Mainly isolated showers and
convection are near the monsoon trough and ITCZ, except scattered
moderate from 08N to 11N between 52W and 58W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
An elongated upper-level low across the central Gulf is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the central
and south-central Gulf to the Yucatan Channel. A 1015 low is
analyzed over the Florida Panhandle near 30.5N84W with a trough
extending from the low into the NE Gulf at 29N86W. Otherwise, a
modest 1019 mb high at the central Gulf near 27N88W is
maintaining gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft for the north-
central and eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Seas
are 2 to 4 ft across the remainder of the basin. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds prevail for the rest of the Gulf, except
locally fresh near the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the
basin through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula
each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and
then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1027 mb Bermuda High continues to support a trade-wind pattern
for much of the Caribbean Sea. Some widely scattered showers are
possible over the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong ENE to E
winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin.
Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas linger near Costa Rica
and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas of
4 to 7 ft are found elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic
ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh
to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the
end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are
expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Two surface troughs are producing scattered moderate convection
east of the Bahamas from 22N to 29N and between 64W and 75W. The
subtropical high is supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft
seas north of 27N between 47W and 60W. Otherwise, moderate with
locally fresh ENE to SE trade winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are
present north of 22N between 35W and 73W. West of 73W and north
of 22N, gentle to moderate S to SW winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are
noted. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 22N between 35W and
the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at
4 to 6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic west of 35W.
North of 16N between Africa and 35W, moderate to fresh NE winds,
locally strong between the Canary Islands, and 7 to 9 ft seas
prevail. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail south
of 16N and east of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to
build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas through the week.
This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds, except for
fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola
through Fri night.
$$
Lewitsky
