000
AXNT20 KNHC 270006
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough is limited to inlad Africa this evening. The
ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 02N30W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 09N between 14W and 28W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N to 06N between
27W and 43W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging remain the prevalent feature over the area, which
currently supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds W of 85W where
seas are in the 5-6 ft range. There are two areas of fresh to
strong E winds, one of them being off NW Cuba and over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters to 23N. Moisture
advection from the E Pac and from the NW Caribbean along with
upper level diffluent flow support isolated showers mainly over
the NW basin where dense fog is also being reported.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will
tighten tonight through Sat, which will result in increasing
SE fresh to strong winds over the entire basin through Sun night.
Seas are expected to peak to 11 ft in the NW Gulf Sat night and
Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near
the northern Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the forecast
period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure north of the area is sustaining gentle to moderate
winds across the basin, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds in the Windward Passage, Gulf of Honduras and Gulf of
Venezuela. Seas basin-wide are in the 4-6 ft range. Otherwise,
moisture advection from a prevalent area of convection N of
Ecuador and E of the Galapagos Islands along with upper level
diffluent flow continue to support scattered showers and isolated
tstms across the central and SW Caribbean, including Hispaniola,
and the Mona Passage.
For the forecast, by this evening, strengthening of the high
pressure will force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of
Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of
Hispaniola beginning on Sat night through early next week.
Otherwise, showers are forecast to continue in the SW Caribbean,
Hispaniola and extend to Puerto Rico and adjacent waters over the
weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Surface ridging extends from a 1034 mb high over the NW Atlantic
waters into the Florida and Bahamas offshore waters where is
intersected by a weak cold front that extends from 31N68W to
30N79W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough continues to support
showers over the offshore waters E of the Bahamas to 50W. The
remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of
the Azores High. Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind the front.
Easterly winds of the same magnitude are N of 20N and E of 40W
along with moderate seas.
For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will merge with a
frontal trough E of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight. The
front will reach from near 31N58W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning,
and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and
weaken over the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night.
North swell behind the front will build seas to a peak of 12 ft
over northeast offshore waters by Sun. Strengthening high pressure
in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong north to
northeast winds behind the front from tonight through Sun. By late
Sun, fresh winds will prevail in the wake of the weakening front
and continue through Mon. Tranquil conditions are expected Tue as
high pressure becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore
waters, with the induced gradient supporting fresh northeast to
east winds over the southern waters.
$$
Ramos
