AXNT20 KNHC 230451

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC.


...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast this evening for the eastern portion of the following areas: AGADIR, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. Winds will subside by tomorrow morning with near gale conditions persisting on Friday over AGADIR.


The monsoon trough extends SW from Sierra Leone on the African coast near 09N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N33W to just N of the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Isolated moderate and strong convection is present from 03N to 05N between 05W and 22W.



High pressure has pushed SE to the Mississippi Delta near 29N89W. The high will slide ESE over the NE corner of the Gulf on Fri, over the Bahamas on Sat and to the east of the Bahamas on Sun. Increasing SE return flow will develop over the Gulf during the first half of next week. Return flow over the Gulf will become fresh to strong on Mon and Tue as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure east of the Gulf and developing low pressure over the Central Plains States. A trough will develop in the Yucatan peninsula each evening, and shift westward across the southwestern corner of the Gulf during the overnight hours.


Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for additional information.

A weakening cold front extends SW from SE Cuba near 20N77W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. The cold front will continue to weaken and is expected to dissipate by dawn. Only patchy cloudiness and isolated showers were observed along and up to 150 nm NW of this boundary. High pressure ridging extending SW from the Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to locally strong trade winds across central and western Caribbean Sea during the next several days. Winds will reach near gale force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong winds can be expected over the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola.


A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N60W, then continues SE to 25N67W, then across the far SE Bahamas to SE Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along and up to 150 nm NW of the front to the N of 26N. The front will continue moving SE and gradually slow down, eventually reaching from 32N48W to Hispaniola on Sun. It is possible that another cold front will drop southward from 32N on Monday in conjunction with a developing area of low pressure off the east coast of the United States which will cut off from the mid latitude flow. Model guidance suggests the front will pass S over the Bahamas as it weakens.

Otherwise, strong 1036 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores near 34N33W dominates the eastern two thirds of the basin and ridges southwestward to the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed in satellite-derived wind data over the tropical Atlc N of 05N.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ McElroy