000
AXNT20 KNHC 141805
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed May 14 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 16N19W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N27W to 03N34W to 03N42W and
to 04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W-29W. Scattered
moderate convection is south of the ITCZ to the Equator between
46W-50W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-39W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Weak high pressure is across the basin, with a 1017 mb high
center analyzed near 26N82W. The present gradient is generally
maintaining light to gentle winds E of 87W, and moderate to fresh
southeast to south winds W of 87W. Seas are in the range of 3 to 5
ft E of 90W, except for lower seas of 2 to 3 ft over the NE Gulf.
W of 90W, seas are 4 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft
over the NW Gulf and lower seas of 3 to 5 ft over the SW Gulf
and central Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, the weak high pressure over the southeastern
Gulf will drift northeastward across the Florida Peninsula and
merge with an Atlantic ridge tonight through Fri. This will
maintain fresh to briefly strong southeast to south return flow
across most of the western Gulf through the upcoming weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Broad surface high pressure is analyzed over the western
Atlantic. Its related gradient is providing for moderate to fresh
trades across just about the entire basin, except for lighter
trades of gentle to moderate speeds over the northwestern part
of the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes and buoy
observations reveal seas of 4 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of
6 to 8 ft over the south-central and SW sections of the basin.
Lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are found north of 18N and W of 80W.
Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection confined to the extreme southwestern part of
sea, where nearby the eastern portion of the eastern Pacific
monsoon trough exists.
For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic
extending a ridge into the NW Bahamas will continue to support
strong northeast to east winds offshore Colombia, and fresh
trades elsewhere E of 80W through tonight. The high pressure
will then slide east-southeastward across the central Atlantic
subtropical waters through the weekend, which will keep mainly
moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern
Caribbean tonight through Thu night, and gentle to moderate
easterly winds for the remainder of the forecast period.
Moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough seas in easterly
trade wind swell will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters
and passages through Sat night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to
strong E winds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras from tonight
through the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough extends from 31N77W southwestward to the NW
Bahamas and to near 24N80W. Latest satellite imagery shows
scattered moderate convection E of the trough north of 25N,
between a line from 31N70W and 25N75W and another line from
31N74W to 25N79W. A weak surface trough extends from the tail-
end of a cold front that is near 30N50W westward from there to
near 29N65W. Scattered showers are possible along and near the
trough between 50W and 58W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge
extends west-southwestward from a 1023 mb high center that is
located well NE of the area just northwest of Madeira Island to
the NW Bahamas. Weak high pressure is W of the aforementioned
surface trough to across the Florida. Latest scatterometer
satellite data passes generally depict light to gentle winds
throughout, except for moderate to fresh trades south of about
21N E of 76W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are S of 23N and E of the
Bahamas, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft S of 16N and E of
61W. Seas elsewhere are mostly 3 to 5 ft, except for lower seas
of 2 to 4 ft N of 27N W of 60W.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the NW
Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward to the NW Bahamas, while
the remnants of a frontal trough persist offshore of Florida along
78W and 9W. This pattern is producing moderate to fresh trade
winds S of 25N and E of 65W, and moderate to fresh southeast to
south return flow between 65W and 75W. The high will slide east-
southeastward into the central Atlantic through the upcoming
weekend, with ridging extending westward into central Florida.
This will gradually lead to anticyclonic winds across the entire
area by the weekend. Pulsing fresh east winds are expected each
afternoon and evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through
Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE
and SE swell will prevail S of 25N this week, including through
the Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean.
$$
Aguirre
