AXNT20 KNHC 021050

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1029 mb in the central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 11-13 ft each night under the strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N29W to 21N50W, where it becomes a stationary front and continues to 23N68W. A swell event follows this front, with seas of 12-14 ft in long period NW swell currently covering the waters N of 26N between 33W and 48W. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 14-16 seconds, will continue to spread southward today. Seas will subside below 12 ft across the NE corner of the forecast area late on Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 00N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06S to 03N between 25W and 45W.


Strong high pressure centered over the central N Atlantic extends a ridge WSW through the western Gulf, thus supporting moderate to fresh return flow across great portions of the SW gulf. A 1020 mb high pressure is located over the SE gulf, which is generating light to gentle variable wind over the eastern half of the basin. Seas across the gulf fluctuate between 2 to 4 ft, highest W of 90W.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will sink slowly into the N Gulf today and dissipate across the eastern Gulf tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period. High pressure and fresh to locally strong return flow will prevail across most of the W half of the Gulf Mon night through Tue night, ahead of the next cold front. This next front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions through Thu.


Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between surface ridging associated with a strong high pressure centered in the north central Atlantic, and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia where seas are in the 8 to 13 ft. Winds in the E Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras are moderate to fresh with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force winds will prevail in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast period. Seas to 10 ft in NE swell across the Tropical North Atlantic waters will gradually subside through Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E Caribbean through the end of the week.


Please read the Special Features section for details about a Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic.

The pressure gradient between a surface ridge dominating the offshore waters east of the southern Bahamas and the tail of a stationary front extending from 21N55W to 23N68W continues to support moderate to fresh E to SE winds S of 25N along with seas to 9 ft. In the central Atlantic, the gradient between the ridge and a cold front supports mainly fresh NE winds across the subtropical waters between 32W and 64W along with seas to 14 ft in NE swell. Otherwise, N of 20N and E of 20W, fresh to strong NE winds prevail between NW Africa and the Canary Islands along with seas of 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas in the vicinity of the southern Bahamas will diminish late Tue after the passage of a cold front forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. this morning. Fresh to locally strong winds are across the waters N of 27N in advance of this new front that is forecast to reach E Bermuda adjacent waters to 27N73W early on Mon before stalling and moving N of the area Mon night. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu.

$$ Ramos