AXNT20 KNHC 302132

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.


Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 12.0N 75.8W at 30/2100 UTC or 470 nm E of Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 120 nm from the center in the northeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 14 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 65W and 80W. A westward motion wll bring the system across the southwestern Caribbean Sea through Friday, crossing Central America Friday night, and emerging over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system is forecast to intensify through Friday with weakening is expected while the system crosses Central America. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Western Gulf of Mexico: Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the southern coast of Texas have changed little in organization since this morning. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward and inland over southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of this system is possible while the low remains over water and it could still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next two days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is currently enroute to investigate the system. This area of low pressure has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone while it remains over water. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.


The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 28W, from 18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 22W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, from 17N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 16N between 48W and 56W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W/76W, from 18N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Convection impacting the central Caribbean is described in the Special Features section for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N31W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ.


Please read the Special Features section for more information on a low pressure system over the W Gulf.

Moderate winds prevail over the NW Gulf, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the NE Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near and to the W of the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night.


Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Outside of winds associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the central Caribbean, 5-8 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move to 11.6N 78.5W Fri morning, 11.3N 81.4W Fri afternoon, inland to 11.3N 84.0W Sat morning, then west of area near 11.4N 86.5W Sat afternoon. A tropical wave located located along 55W is forecast to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend. Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves across the region.


Outside of the tropical waves described above, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is dominated by the Azores high centered north of the area. An upper level low just off the SE US coast has induced a trough at the surface, analyzed across the Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough axis. North of 20N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas over this area are in the 4-6 ft range, reaching 7 ft east of 40W. South of 20N, Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of the tropical wave near 55W, with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere S of 20N, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through Fri night. Then, a tropical wave forecast to move over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend will bring a surge of winds and seas across the waters S of 22N Fri night through Sun.

$$ AL