AXNT20 KNHC 160536

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC.


...Tropical Depression Fifteen...

The center of Tropical Depression Fifteen, at 16/0300 UTC, is near 16.8N 23.7W. This position also is about 50 nm/95 km to the NNE of The Cabo Verde Islands. The Tropical Depression is moving WNW, or 300 degrees, 09 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Possible hazards that may affect land: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 inch to 3 inches, across the eastern and northern Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. It is possible that this rainfall may cause flash flooding and mudslides. It is possible that tropical storm-force wind gusts may occur in the eastern Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday, especially in areas of high terrain. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for T.D. FIFTEEN are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for T.D. FIFTEEN are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A trough of low pressure that is in southern Mexico is producing disorganized rainshowers and thunderstorms in southeastern Mexico, in Guatemala, and in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. This area of weather, and another tropical system that is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, are expected to produce heavy rains in parts of southern Mexico and Central America during the next couple of days. It is possible the rain may cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. The area of low pressure is forecast to move into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and turn northward gradually, by late Wednesday. Some gradual development is possible, after the disturbance moves over water. It is possible that a tropical cyclone or a subtropical cyclone may form later this week, in the western Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 10N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N southward between 30W and 34W. Monsoon trough- related widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward between 20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/55W, from 17N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 18N between 48W and 57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 21N southward, moving W 15 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is cutting across the area of the tropical wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the Gulf of Venezuela.


The monsoon trough is inland, in Africa. The ITCZ is along 05N33W 05N44W 08N52W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 180 nm N of the ITCZ, and within 90 nm S of the ITCZ.


A stationary front extends from the coastal waters of South Carolina and Georgia, to the Florida Panhandle. The front becomes a warm front from the Florida Panhandle, to northern Louisiana. Isolated moderate to locally strong in the coastal plains and interior sections of Florida from 82W westward and northwestward, and off the coast of SE Louisiana. Isolated moderate within 180 nm to the west of NW Cuba.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along 23N91W 20N93W 17N94W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 23N southward between 90W and 96W.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Broad low pressure in the Yucatan Peninsula, in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in southern Mexico, gradually will shift NW through late Thursday. Expect squalls and thunderstorms to the SW Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate return flow will prevail across the basin through tonight, ahead of the next cold front, that is expected to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. The front will extend from 28N82W to 27N90W to Tampico, Mexico by Thursday morning. The front will extend from 26N82W to 26N86W by Friday, where it will transition to a warm front as low pressure develops near 25N94W. The low pressure center is expected to move NE toward the mouth of the Mississippi River, from Friday through Saturday, with strong to near gale force winds across E and NE parts of the low pressure center. Very active weather is expected across the basin with this front and low pressure system.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about the heavy rainfall event, that currently is occurring in Central America and the southwest Caribbean Sea.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the line that runs from the easternmost part of Hispaniola to the western sections of Panama.

An upper level trough passes through 22N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the Mona Passage, to 14N73W in the central Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N southward from 74W westward, with an upper level inverted trough. The monsoon trough passes through northern sections of Colombia, and across Panama and northern parts of Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N southward from 80W westward.

Broad low pressure, across Central America and the southern Gulf of Mexico, will yield moderate to fresh SE winds in the NW Caribbean Sea throughout the week. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere across the rest of the basin through the period. An active tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic waters tonight and Wednesday, across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.


An upper level trough is near 32N61W, to 26N62W, to 22N65W, beyond the Mona Passage, and into the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 31N61W 25N66W 20N67W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 20N northward between 50W and 62W.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the area W of 65W through early Thursday. A cold front is expected to enter the NW forecast waters on Thursday morning. Fresh to near gale force SW winds are expected across the NW waters N of 29N ahead of the front, from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to just N of Freeport, Bahamas to the east coast of Florida near 26N80W early on Thursday night, and move east of the area by Saturday.