AXNT20 KNHC 180546

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force during the day. Sea heights will reach as high as 17 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-04N between 07W-12W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-03S between 16W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-03S between 39W-49W.


At 18/0300 UTC, a warm front was lifting north across the north central and north eastern Gulf stretching from central Louisiana near 30N93W to the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W. There is a stationary front over N Florida from 30N81W to 30N85W. Low to mid level clouds and scattered showers are moving across the northern Gulf, north of 27N. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict light to moderate southerly winds across the basin.

The warm front over the northern Gulf will weaken and lift northward tonight. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue night and slowly move southward through Wed night. A reinforcing cold front will quickly cross the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of this front offshore of Tampico, Mexico Thu night, and Veracruz, Mexico Fri into Fri night. Elsewhere, expect strengthening NE winds and building seas across the Gulf following the second cold front.


A gale is along the coast of N Colombia. See above. Mid to upper- level ridging dominates the basin with strong subsidence. Isolated showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles and the eastern half of the Greater Antilles. Isolated showers are also seen moving inland over the Central American countries, from the Yucatan southward to Panama.

High pres N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia each night. High pres will weaken N of the area Thu night, helping to diminish winds Fri and Sat. Long period N to NE swell will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu, then subside Fri and Fri night.


A cold front is over the NW Atlantic from 31N79W to 30N81W. A 1018 mb low is near 30N79W. Scattered showers are N of 28N and W of 76W. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N61W to 28N72W. A 1041 mb high is centered over the Azores near 41N31W. A surface trough is off the coast of Africa from 22N23W to 15N21W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near the Canary Islands at 27N17W producing scattered showers.

Low pres over the far NW waters will shift N of the area Tue as high pres briefly builds across the area. The area of high pres will then shift E midweek enabling a cold front to move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed. This front will briefly stall over the northern waters Wed night and Thu, before a reinforcing pushes it southward across the region Thu night through Sat night. Gale conditions are possible W of the front across the northern waters Thu night and Fri, with large N swell expected to impact much of the area by Fri night.

$$ Formosa