AXNT20 KNHC 221019

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Sep 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC.


Tropical Storm Beta has moved inland early this morning and is centered near 28.8N 96.7W at 22/0900 UTC or 30 nm NNW of Port Oconnor Texas moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends out 150 nm from the center in the E semicircle. Beta is expected to stall today and tonight, while gradually weakening to a tropical depression. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for portions of the NW Gulf Coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Hurricane Teddy is centered near 38.4N 62.4W at 22/0900 UTC or 380 nm S of Halifax Nova Scotia moving NNW at 24 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection extends outward 360 nm from the center in the northern semicircle...and 90 nm in the SW quadrant. Teddy will move over Nova Scotia Wed morning then cross the Gulf of St. Lawrence through Wed night. Teddy should weaken below hurricane strength and become extratropical on Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Paulette is centered near 34.7N 23.7W at 22/0900 UTC or 260 nm SE of the Azores moving ENE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 60 nm of the center in all quadrants. Paulette will continue moving ENE into Wed before stalling Wed night. Weakening is forecast and Paulette is likely to become post-tropical Wed or Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.


A tropical wave is located along 20W S of 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.

A weak tropical wave extends along 32W S of 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W to 08N28W. The ITCZ is from 06N33W to 05N39W. No significant convection is occurring along these features.


Please see the Special Features section above for further details on Tropical Storm Beta inland over Texas.

As of 22/0900 UTC. A cold front has now stalled over the eastern and central Gulf from 22N81W to 29N92W. Scattered moderate convection is near the front. North of the front over the NE Gulf, strong NE winds prevail. These winds will gradually decrease to fresh later today and tonight. Gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico south of the front. In the far western Gulf, gentle winds prevail south of 25.5N.

After weakening to a tropical depression later today or tonight, Beta will turn NE and track along the TX coast for the next several days, eventually moving into Louisiana. Impacts from Beta will remain confined to nearshore coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana. A stationary front will remain stretched from the central to southeast Gulf through Thu. Low pressure may form along this frontal boundary in the southeast Gulf later this week.


Mainly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the influence of mid level high pressure supporting dry air subsidence. Showers and thunderstorms previously near Cuba have dissipated. Scattered moderate convection S of 11N, along the Panama and Colombia coasts, is associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Swell associated with Hurricane Teddy moving away in the north Atlantic as well as generated by a cold front currently extending along 22N W of 61W will impact much of the Atlantic passages beginning Tue night and continuing through at least Thu night. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the basin through Thu night. Across the remainder of the Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades will prevail.


A cold front extends from 31N61W to 22N77W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the front. Strong NE winds area located to the N and W of the front, including the Bahamas. Ahead of the front, strong S winds are occurring N of 28N. A weak 1010 mb low near 14N50W is along a NE-SW surface trough that extends from 17N46W to 10N54W. Another surface trough is from 22N40W to 16N41W. A broad area of moderate, disorganized convection resides in the vicinity of these features from 11N to 24N between 39N and 49W.

Swell generated by Hurricane Teddy, moving farther north of the area toward Atlantic Canada, and a cold front that is slowing over the southeastern waters will continue to impact the waters through at least Thu night. In the wake of the front, high pressure building into the Mid- Atlantic U.S. will bring fresh to strong winds to areas N of the Bahamas and off the Florida coast into tonight.