AXNT20 KNHC 270455

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 27 2022

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC


A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 18W, south of 14N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of 10N and moving westward near 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature at the present time.

A SW Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of 17N and moving westward near 10 kt. No deep convection is observed near the trough axis at the present time.


The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 03N33W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is found within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 19W and 27W.


A stationary front extends from the coast of Mississippi to NE Tamaulipas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed ahead of the frontal boundary, especially in the NE Gulf and N of 25N. Farther south, strong thunderstorms have developed over the Yucatan peninsula and are moving into the eastern Bay of Campeche. These storms may produce strong winds as they propagate westward. Moderate to locally fresh winds are present in the NE Gulf and offshore northern and western Yucatan, while gentle to light winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail across the basin, with the highest seas affecting the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow can be expected in the northeast Gulf ahead of the front, with gentle winds behind it. The front will continue weakening over the northern Gulf through Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will persist ahead of the front through Fri. By the weekend, high pressure will settle over the basin, allowing winds to become gentle to moderate.


Strong thunderstorms that developed over northern Honduras and Guatemala are also affecting parts of the Gulf of Honduras. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar winds were also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades prevail. Seas of 4-7 ft are present in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with the highest seas occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to strong north of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela each night through early next week.


The subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions over most of the basin. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are found from offshore northern Hispaniola to offshore NE Florida, including the Bahamas. A small area of strong trades was captured by a recent scatterometer satellite pass at the entrance of the Windward Passage. A weak cold front enters the basin near 31N49W to 27N61W. No deep convection is associated with this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted behind the cold front. A surface trough extends from 25N63W to 31N65W. Satellite imagery depict a shallow area of moisture east of the trough producing weak showers. Satellite- derived wind data indicate that fresh NE winds are found east of the trough, mainly N of 29N. Another weak surface trough extends from 31N37W to 22N49W and no deep convection is occurring near the boundary. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 3-6 ft over most of the basin, except for 5-8 ft N of 30N and between 55W and 58W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward through Fri night as a cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, winds off the NE Florida coast will become fresh to locally strong through Fri night. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the region through early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas during the weekend and into early next week.