AXNT20 KNHC 190519

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week. Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ extending from 07N34W to 03N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 16W and 43W.


A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf near 30N87W, and extends a broad ridge to the SE and to the NW. Dry and stable conditions prevail across the basin. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across most of the basin, while moderate to fresh southeast to south winds prevail north of 21N and west of 94W, where seas are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail.

High pressure will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through Fri. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and become stationary into Sat night. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up over the NW Gulf today between the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast Mexico. These winds will diminish by Wed. A trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds.


There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail across the basin. Strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted off of Colombia outside of the gale area. Scattered showers are noted over the northwest Caribbean.

High pressure building over the western Atlantic in will bring increasing winds and building seas over the southeast and south- central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia at night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba tonight through Wed night, diminishing to mainly fresh speeds Thu and to gentle to moderate speeds Fri.


A cold front extends from 31N64W to 22N73W. Scattered showers are noted within the front. Moderate to fresh SE to E winds are evident ahead of this boundary over the waters north of 25N and west of 63W with 5 to 7 ft seas. West of the front, fresh to strong westerly flow is noted from the northern Bahamas to 31N between 70W to 80W. Surface ridging prevails over the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 34N15W. The pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic south of 25N where seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell.

The cold front will stall from 25N65W into Wed, then dissipate Wed night. Another cold front will move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and Bermuda by Wed night. The main portion of this front will lift to the northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along 27N by late Thu. This front will be followed by yet another cold front that will move southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late Fri, and reach from near 31N60W to near the NW Bahamas by late Sat.