000
AXNT20 KNHC 090106
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Mar 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to
03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 01S45W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 180 nm on either side of the
ITCZ mainly W of 26W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A frontal boundary extends along the NW Gulf states coastline
enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 27N and W of
90W. Gentle to moderate S winds are occurring across the basin. Seas
of 3 to 5 ft are noted over much of the Gulf via altimeter and
buoy data, with 2 to 3 ft seas prevailing over the northeast
basin.
For the forecast, the front will continue to trigger showers and
thunderstorms across the NW Gulf tonight before dissipating on
Mon. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from
the Bermuda High will remain in the Gulf through midweek next
week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure
over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SW winds
basin-wide, pusling to between fresh and strong near the northern
Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker
winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to
moderate through Wed. Another, but stronger cold front may impact
the northwestern Gulf Wed night, before moving across the basin
through Thu night with increasing winds and seas behind it.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high
pressure to the north is supporting widespread moderate to fresh
trade winds and rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean
as noted via recent scatterometer data. Strong winds are
occurring in the south-central basin and south of Hispaniola.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail over
the northwestern Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the
eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed.
Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to near gale-
force during the nighttime hours through Wed night. Fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage
and the Gulf of Honduras through Mon evening. Large easterly
trade-wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough
seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Surface ridging dominates the central and western tropical
Atlantic, supporting widespread moderate to fresh trade winds
south of 27N. Pockets of strong trade winds are noted via
scatterometer data east of the Lesser Antilles. Rough seas in E
swell are noted via buoy and altimeter data in this region as
well as north of the Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, the remnants of a frontal boundary are analyzed as a
surface trough, extending from 30N32W to 25N36W. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh N to NE winds occurring north of
the trough, with strong winds and rough seas occurring near 31W.
Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in NE swell
prevail off the coast of northwest Africa, supported by a strong
pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high to the north near
35N20W and lower pressures over northwest Africa. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the rest
of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 25N through midweek, reaching strong north
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected
elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold
front. That front may move offshore by early Thu, weakening and
slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu
night.
$$
ERA
