999
AXNT20 KNHC 170539
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jul 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are seen near the
trough axis.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near
this wave.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 20 kt. A few showers are noted near this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N32W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N46W to 05N53W. Scattered to isolated moderate
convection is observed within 200 nm on both sides of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ west of 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate that the disturbance
(AL93) that the National Hurricane Center has been tracking over the
northeast and north-central Gulf waters remains quite disorganized.
In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains
displaced well west of the broad center. While some additional
development of this system remains possible over the next 12-24
hours, its current structure suggests its chances of developing into
a tropical depression before it reaches the Louisiana coast later
today are decreasing. The disturbance has a low chance of tropical
development over the next 48 hours and also in the next 7 days.
A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds in the NE and NW Gulf waters. Seas
in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the Bay of
Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas
prevail.
For the forecast, AL93 is forecast to continue moving westward
across northern portions of the Gulf through tonight, reaching SE
Louisiana on Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore,
environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable
for additional development, and a tropical depression could form
over the next day or two before the system moves fully inland by
Fri. Regardless of development, heavy showers and thunderstorms
are expected over the north- central Gulf through Fri, with
erratic gusty winds and rough seas possible near convection.
Atlantic high pressure will shift westward into the NE Gulf over
the weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the
tropical waves moving across the basin.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting Cuba,
Haiti and surrounding waters. Drier conditions are prevalent
elsewhere. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge near Bermuda and lower pressures in NW Colombia result in
strong to near gale-force easterly winds in the south-central
Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite
pass. These winds are supporting rough seas. Fresh to locally
strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the
north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in
the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. In the remainder of
the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas
across the south-central Caribbean will expand across most of the
central and into the west-central basin, including through the
Windward Passage, Thu through Sat morning, as central Atlantic
high pressure along 31N-32N gradually shifts westward to near 75W.
Strong to near gale-force winds are expected offshore of northern
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night and early
morning into Sat. Winds and seas will diminish slightly Sat into
early next week as high pressure weakens north of the area.
Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and evening into this
weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will
continue in the eastern basin into next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the
tropical waves moving across the basin.
An upper level low centered off the NW Bahamas and moisture
associated with a tropical wave result in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms affecting the NW Bahamas and surrounding
waters. Farther east, another upper level low situated east of
Bermuda supports a few showers north of 29N and between 53W and
65W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is
dominated by a subtropical ridge near Bermuda. Satellite-derived
wind data depict fresh to strong easterly winds between the SE
Bahamas and Cuba and Hispaniola, including the entrance of the
Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 27N and
west of 55W.
In the north-central Atlantic, a dissipating cold front extends
from 31N31W to 22N48W, followed by a surface trough to 23N57W.
A few showers are evident near the boundaries. Moderate to locally
fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are occurring north of the
dissipating boundaries. In the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong N
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 29N and east of 15W.
In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE
winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles to 26N and off
the coast of Florida west of 76W through Thu as high pressure in
the central Atlantic along 31N-32N builds westward into Florida,
in the wake of westward moving low pressure over the NE Gulf of
America. Scattered squalls and thunderstorms will move through the
northern Bahamas and into central Florida tonight through Thu
morning, associated with a tropical wave passing south of the
area. Fresh winds will pulse to strong each evening and night off
the coast of northern Hispaniola into early Sat. Winds will
diminish off the coast of Florida by early Fri, and north of the
Greater Antilles and the Bahamas by Sat morning as high pressure
shifts to near 29N75W and weakens. South of 20N, moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail
through this weekend.
$$
Delgado
