000
AXNT20 KNHC 072343
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Feb 08 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A
cold front is analyzed from near 31N63W to 27N75W and to across
South Florida. Combined seas with northwest swell behind the
front is resulting in seas of 16 to 28 ft primarily north of 26N
west of the front to near 76W as noted in the latest available
Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys and in altimeter satellite passes over
that part of the Atlantic. Gale-force west to northwest winds of
30 to 40 kt are behind the front to near 74W and north of 27N as
seen in the latest scatterometer satellite data passes, and gale-
force southwest winds of 30 to 35 kt are ahead of the front to
near 57W and north of 27N. Seas with these winds are 18 to 27 ft
in west to northwest swell. Widespread gale-force to near storm-
force winds will impact waters north of 27N and east of 76W
through Sun night, as it reaches from near 31N49W to the northern
Leeward Islands Sun morning, then begins to weaken from 31N44W
to the central Leewards Tue. Gale-force winds behind the front
will shift NE of the northeastern zones late Mon. Very rough seas
generated by these winds will propagate SE and impact much of
the waters into early next week, with peak seas of 30 to 35 ft
possible from 30N to Bermuda on Sun. The very rough seas are
likely to finally depart the region to the east on Wed.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06.5N11W and extends southwestward to near 06N16W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N25W and to 01S40W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ
between 26W-32W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1026 mb high is located near 22N94W. This feature continues to
dominate the wind flow pattern over the entire basin. Moderate
northwest to north winds along with moderate seas are over the
north-central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits.
Gentle winds and slight seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the 1026 mb high will drift to the northeast, and
continue to dominate the wind flow regime through the middle of the
upcoming week, bringing generally quiescent conditions to the basin.
The moderate northwest to north winds that are over the north-
central and eastern Gulf will gradually diminish and veer to the
northeast through Sun morning.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front extends from Puerto Rico southwestward to near
18N67W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 17N74W and
south-southwestward to near 09N77W. Fresh to strong north winds
are west of the front to 82W and south of 20N. Seas with these
winds are in the range of 7 to 10 ft, with the highest of the
seas noted near 10N81W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere west of the
front, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft south of 20N.
To the east of the front, a trough extends from near 19N64W
southwestward to 15N70W and continues to near low pressure of
1013 mb situated over northern Colombia near 11N74W. The trades
east of the front and trough are of gentle to moderate speeds,
with slight seas.
Isolated showers are over some sections of the eastern part of
the basin.
For the forecast, a weakening cold front has stalled from western
Puerto Rico to offshore of southwest Haiti near 17.5N73W to near
the coast of NW Colombia and the Gulf of Uraba. The front will
drift SE across the central Leeward Islands through Tue then
gradually dissipate. Strong north winds and rough seas will prevail
across the southwestern part of the sea behind the front, through
Sun. In the wake of the front, fresh to strong trades will develop
offshore Colombia and Hispaniola Sun night, then increase and expand
through the central basin into the middle of next week, as high
pressure builds N of the area. Rough seas will develop in this area
of strong winds. Additionally, large northwest to north Atlantic
swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N
Atlantic waters Sun night through Wed.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on Gale
Warnings and areas of significant swell in the western and central
Atlantic.
Outside of the Special Feature warning areas, a cold front is
over the central Atlantic extending from near 31N46W to 25N55W
and continuing southwestward to Puerto Rico. Latest scatterometer
satellite data passes indicate fresh to strong southwest winds
ahead of this front north of about 24N, to near a line from
31N36W to 24N49W. Southwest winds to near gale force are north
of 28N. Seas over these waters are in the range of 8 to 12 ft,
except for higher seas of 10 to 15 ft north of 26N. The cold
front that is over the western Atlantic along a position from
near 31N63W to 27N75W and to across South Florida, as described
above under the Special Features section, will merge with this front
early on Sun.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades dominate the
waters south of of 22N and east of 60W, with fresh to strong trades
occurring from 16N to 25N and east of 25W as noted in the latest
scatterometer satellite data passes. Rough seas are impacting much
of the waters east of about 40W and south of 21N, and also south of
11N east of 51W. Gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas
remain elsewhere.
For the forecast W of 55W, see the Special Features section
above. Otherwise, in the wake of the Special Features front and
associated wind and sea conditions, high pressure will build
from west to east roughly along 28N into the middle part of the
upcoming week.
$$
Aguirre
