000
AXNT20 KNHC 090546
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Mar 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to
02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 03S39W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 03N and W of 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A dissipating frontal boundary is analyzed inland over the NW
Gulf coast, enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms along
the immediate coast. A surface trough in the W Gulf is also
enhancing showers and thunderstorms near the north end of the
trough axis. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are occurring across
much of the basin, except for off the northern Yucatan Peninsula
where E winds are moderate to fresh. Seas of 2 to 5 ft are noted
over much of the Gulf.
For the forecast, a dissipating stationary front near the coast
of Texas and Louisiana will continue to trigger showers and
thunderstorms tonight before dissipating on Mon. Otherwise, a
broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the Bermuda High
will remain in the Gulf through midweek. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly
moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pusling to between
fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in
the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the
northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A
cold front may impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night,
before moving across the basin through Fri night with increasing
winds and seas behind it.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A strong pressure gradient between the Colombian low and high
pressure to the north is supporting fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean as noted via recent scatterometer data.
Winds are moderate to fresh across much of the remaining basin.
Seas of 8-10 ft prevail in the central Caribbean. Seas are
moderate in the eastern and SW Caribbean, while slight seas
prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High
and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the
eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed.
Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to near gale-
force during the night-time hours through Wed night. Fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage
and the Gulf of Honduras through mid-week. Large easterly trade-
wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas
near the Lesser Antilles through Wed. Marine conditions will
improve slightly by the end of the week as the pressure gradient
weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Surface ridging dominates the central and western tropical
Atlantic, supporting widespread moderate to fresh trade winds
south of 27N. Pockets of locally strong trade winds are noted
via scatterometer data east of the Lesser Antilles. Rough seas in
E swell are noted via buoy and altimeter data in this region as
well as east. of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, the remnants of
a frontal boundary are analyzed as a surface trough, extending
from 31N33W to 24N38W. Scatterometer data depict strong NE winds
and rough seas occurring N of 30N between the trough and 45W.
Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in NE swell
prevail off the coast of northwest Africa, supported by a strong
pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high to the north and lower
pressures over northwest Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas prevail over the rest of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 25N through midweek, reaching strong north
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected
elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold
front. That front may move offshore Thu, weakening and slowing
from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu night.
$$
Adams
