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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border and continues to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 02N28W to 01N40W to the Equator at 50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 01N-03N between 21N-24N, and from 01S-01N between 48W-51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the Equator to 02N between 31W-35W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through Andros Island in the Bahamas, across NW Cuba, to the N central part of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Surface high pressure spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 28N93W, off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Precipitation: late afternoon isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Yucatan Peninsula, and from Hispaniola to Cuba.

A frontal boundary currently is inland in Texas. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area from inland Mexico to inland Texas from 22N to 31N between 94W and 102W.

The current cold front that is in the SE Gulf will become diffuse by Thursday. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight. This front will shift across the Gulf, moving SE of the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak cold front has reached western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Currently, scattered showers and tstms are noted in association with the frontal boundary. The front is forecast to become diffuse tonight. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean along 63W. Patches of low level clouds with embedded showers are in the wake of the trough currently affecting the Lesser Antilles where light showers have been reported. Moisture associated with this through is forecast to move across Puerto Rico and the UK/US Virgin Islands early on Thu increasing the likelihood of showers.

The wind speeds will pulse to fresh-to-locally strong in the central Caribbean Sea during the next couple of nights. Gentle to moderate trades will continue through the period, elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N75W, southwestward, to western Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are noted in a band well ahead of the front. Similar convective activity is also noted across the Straits of Florida, but it is forecast to diminish by this afternoon as a cooler air mass invades the area. The front will stall and dissipate tonight, particularly W of the Bahamas.

The current cold front will stall and dissipate by Thursday. A second cold front will move across the northwest waters on Friday night. This front will reach from near 31N73W to South Florida on Saturday night, from near 31N69W to the straits of Florida on Sunday night, and from 25N65W to central Cuba on Monday night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MT

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