AXNT20 KNHC 151704

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1204 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. A secondary ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 03S28W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along both ITCZ's between 26W-40W.


A 1029 mb high pressure centered north of the basin extends across the area with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds prevailing. A surface trough is analyzed over the west Gulf from 28N97W to 21N96W. No significant convection is present across the basin at this time.

High pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Friday. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf by Friday night ahead of a strong cold front forecast to reach the NW Gulf by late Saturday. Gale conditions are possible behind the front.


In the upper levels, a ridge is in control of the Caribbean, with subsidence covering the entire basin. Latest scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate east winds across eastern and southern Caribbean, while fresh to strong east winds are off the coast of Colombia south of 13N between 72W-77W. Scattered showers are possible over the northwest Caribbean along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters mainly south of 20N and west of 86W.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south-central Caribbean Sea through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere.


A cold front extends south across the west Atlantic from 31N60W to 24N77W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend 90 nm ahead of the front mainly north of 26N. To the east, a surface trough extends from 26N55W to 23N56W. Another trough is to the east, extending from 32N45W to 26N48W. Last trough is analyzed over the east Atlantic from 27N30W to 23N17W. Scattered showers are noted along all the troughs.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will reach from 27N65W to the southern Bahamas on Wednesday, then stall and weaken from 26N65W to Turks and Caicos on Thursday. A reinforcing surge of cool air will freshen the winds east of the northern Bahamas Wednesday night and Thursday. Southerly winds will strengthen this weekend east of Florida.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine