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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from Hispaniola southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 66W and 74W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 12N18W. The ITCZ continues from 12N18W to 09N23W, to 10N43W, to 09N61W at the coast of NE Venezuela. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N between 11W and 15W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 20N between 20W and 50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W eastward, and from 05N to 10N between 50W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 24N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the Straits of Florida, to 27N90W. The front becomes warm from 27N90W, and it curves northwestward to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 27N95W in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to 20N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the northwest and north of the line that runs from 19N92W, 23N93W, 24N89W, to the Yucatan Peninsula.

The 1015 mb low pressure center will lift N toward the coast of Texas through Wednesday night, then east-northeastward across the N central waters through Thursday night, moving across the NE Gulf of Mexico into north Florida by Friday. The developing low pressure center will drag a new cold front across the Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough from northern Colombia, eastward along 09N, beyond Panama westward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 11N southward between 76W and 79W, in the SW corner of the area. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 11N southward between 79W and 82W.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea during the next several days, with the exception of light to gentle winds in the NW Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds are expected to increase slightly, to 15-20 knots across the south- central Caribbean Sea, by Saturday night. A tropical wave, extending from the Mona Passage to the coast of Venezuela, will become a trough today, then finally weaken and dissipate by Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N57W to 24N70W, through the Straits of Florida, to 27N90W. The front becomes warm from 27N90W, and it curves northwestward to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 27N95W in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to 20N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N northward between 50W and 67W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward.

Expect fresh to strong winds, and seas to around 10 feet, in the wake of the current stationary front. The front will weaken through Wednesday, and allow winds and seas to decrease. The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure in the NE U.S.A. and low pressure tracking NE from the Gulf of Mexico across northern Florida, will cause winds and seas east of NE Florida to increase Thursday and Friday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ dm/gr/mt

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