AXNT20 KNHC 261801

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC.


A weak monsoon trough remains mostly over the central African continent. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from well southwest of Carbo Verde Islands at 06N30W across 06N40W to near NW Brazil at 03N50W. Moderate convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 28W and 50W.


A warm front extends westward from near Tampa, Florida to a 1014 mb low pressure over the NE Gulf near 27N86W, then continues west-northwestward as a stationary front thru Victoria, Texas. Cloudiness and scattered showers are occurring along and up to 120 nm N of this boundary. A dissipating stationary front curves southwestward from S Florida across a 1016 mb low near Fort Myers to the NE Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted up to 50 nm from either side of this feature.

Fresh to strong northerly winds with seas at 9 to 12 ft are present across the N Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present over the W central and SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate WSW to NW winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the low pressure over the NE Gulf will gradually weaken and move inland into Florida by tonight, expect strong to near-gale force winds in the N central Gulf with seas building to near 15 ft. As the stationary front across the N Gulf weakens, conditions in the NE Gulf will gradually improve this afternoon. Then a strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri, then race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near-gale force winds to much of the basin into Sat. Gales are likely offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico late Fri, and possibly extend across the central and SE Gulf into Sat behind this cold front.


Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers over the Windward Islands, otherwise a ENE to SE trade-wind pattern continues across the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh with locally strong winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft are seen over the S central basin, N of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident across the N central basin. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore Colombia into the weekend. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades will prevail into the weekend. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by late Fri night and southwest Caribbean by late Sat, and bring fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas through the weekend. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the Windward Passage Sun behind the approaching front.


A cold front extends west-southwestward from NE of Bermuda across 31N75W through central Florida to near Tampa. Farther S, a dissipating stationary front reaches eastward from a 1016 mb low near Fort Myers across S Florida to just E of the NW Bahamas. These features are producing extensive cloudiness and showers N of 26N between 68W and Florida. Over the W central Atlantic, another weak cold front extends southwestward from E of Bermuda across 31N62W to near 25N67W. Scattered showers are present near and up to 130 nm E of the front. For the central Atlantic, a surface trough runs northward from a 1017 mb low near 24N45W to 31N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this low from 22N to 27N between 41W and 51W. Farther E, an upper-level low near 24N37W is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 21N to 24N between 32W and 40W.

Latest satellite scatterometer and altimetery data indicate strong to near-gale NE to E winds with seas at 9 to 12 ft N and NE of the 1017 mb low in the central Atlantic, from 24N to 27N between 42W and 47W. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft exist farther NE, N of 27N between 26W and 42W; and then farther S from 14N to 21N between 20W and 34W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present near both cold fronts N of 27N between 57W and the N Florida/Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident N of 11N between the African coast and 20W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen from 02N to 09N between 31W and 47W. Light to gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, a slow moving cold front from just E of Bermuda to NE of Hispaniola is beginning to dissipate at the southern end. This trend will continue as the front moves E of the area by the end of the week. Another cold front will move S into the area tonight, then stall along 28N into Thu, before dissipating. Low pressure will also emerge off the S Florida coast Thu, then meander over the NW Bahamas into Fri, before lifting northward, as another stronger cold front moves off the SE U.S. coast Fri night. This front will bring near-gale force winds and rough seas behind it for the weekend.