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000
AXNT20 KNHC 300605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Sep 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front is passing through Florida, from just to the south of the Tampa metropolitan area, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds cover the waters that are from 19N to 21N between 93W and 97W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between 93W and 95W. Widely scattered moderate is inland, within 200 nm to the SE of the cold front from 15N to 20N. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gale-force winds also cover parts of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the southern side of Mexico.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 16N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 445 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 14N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/50W, from 16N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 280 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 09N to 14N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/65W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 445 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 23N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm to the WNW of the tropical wave from 17N to 22N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 400 nm to the west of the tropical wave.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W, 07N30W, and 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W, to 10N54W, and to 11N61W. Precipitation: some of the precipitation that is near the monsoon trough and the ITCZ also is related to and accompanying the tropical waves. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and isolated to locally strong, generally, is from 17N southward from 55W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is passing through Florida, from just to the south of the Tampa metropolitan area, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds cover the waters that are from 19N to 21N between 93W and 97W. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between 93W and 95W. Widely scattered moderate is inland, within 200 nm to the SE of the cold front from 15N to 20N. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gale-force winds also cover parts of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the southern side of Mexico.

The current strong cold front will continue to support gale-force winds in the SW basin, behind the front through tonight. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds are expected elsewhere behind the front. The front will move E of the basin by Wednesday evening. A second front will enter the northern Gulf early on Friday, and it will reach the SW Gulf by Friday evening. Strong high pressure building behind this front will support fresh northeast winds in most of the SE Gulf by the end of the week. It is possible that these winds may reach strong speeds on Saturday, along with building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/65W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 445 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 23N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm to the WNW of the tropical wave from 17N to 22N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 400 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters covers parts of Colombia and Venezuela, Panama and Costa Rica, and the neighboring coastal waters, from 05N to 13N between 71W and 85W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea will increase to fresh to strong speeds overnight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except for gentle winds in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, through Thursday morning. A tropical wave, currently along 76W, will move into the Gulf of Honduras on Thursday evening, inducing fresh to strong winds and building seas. The chance for this feature to evolve into a tropical cyclone through the next 5 days is medium.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Precipitation: widely scattred to scattered moderate, and isolated to locally strong, covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N northward from 63W westward. This precipitation is to the east of the advancing cold front that is moving through the Gulf of Mexico right now.

Moderate to fresh return flow, mainly to the NE of the Bahamas, will prevail in advance of a cold front that will enter the NW forecast waters tonight. The cold front will be extending from 30N74W to 24N80W on Wednesday evening, before stalling and dissipating on Thursday. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front, in the NW and north central forecast waters tonight. A tropical wave, that will move across Puerto Rico on Friday and Saturday, will support moderate to fresh winds in the SE forecast waters during the weekend.

$$ mt

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