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AXNT20 KNHC 271746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC.


...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN HONDURAS...

A strong cold front is moving across the NW Caribbean Sea and has stalled in the Gulf of Honduras. Heavy rainfall has developed ahead of the front in northern Honduras and is expected to continue through Saturday. Persistent heavy rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected today in north central Guatemala, the southeastern parts of the Mexican state of Veracruz, and northern Chiapas. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 01N23W to 02S32W. Numerous strong convection is seen along and south of the ITCZ from 05S-01N between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06S-04N between 18W-38W. Isolated thunderstorms are moving off the coast of Liberia and Cote d'Ivoire.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is building across the Gulf of Mexico behind the cold front that is now well into the Atlantic and Caribbean. Overcast skies cover most of the Gulf with isolated showers moving in the southeast Gulf toward southern Florida. Skies are clearing along the central and western Gulf coast. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh northerly winds across most of the basin, with moderate northerly winds in the NW Gulf. Seas of 6 to 10 ft are seen across the eastern and southern Gulf with 1 to 3 ft along the western and central Gulf coast.

Hazardous seas will gradually subside from N to S today with tranquil conditions prevailing by Fri. A weak reinforcing cold front will sweep through the NE Gulf Fri night and bring fresh NW winds. High pressure will shift east of the Gulf Sun with fresh return flow increasing to strong over much of the Gulf early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level ridge is over most of the basin, with a mid to upper-level trough digging across the NW Caribbean. At the surface, a cold front extends off the central coast of Cuba near 22N79W to 19N85W. The tail-end of the front stalls from 19N85W to NW Honduras near 16N88W. A 1018 mb low is noted north of Honduras near 17N85W with a trough along the low from 17N83W to 16N87W. An area of thunderstorms is occurring in northern Honduras and portions of the southern Gulf of Honduras and has been persistent throughout this morning. Showers are also seen along the front. Elsewhere, showers are moving quickly across the Lesser Antilles and the eastern basin. A trough is noted east of the Lesser Antilles from 18N60W to 12N59W with showers along this feature.

The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale force northern winds behind the cold/stationary front in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Light winds are ahead of the front in the western Caribbean. Strong trades are north of Colombia and moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas up to 9 ft are noted along and behind the front with 3 to 6 ft elsewhere.

The cold front will move SE and reach from E Cuba into E Honduras by this evening, then slow and stall this weekend from Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, and dissipate by early next week. Strong N winds will prevail behind the front as high pressure builds into the region with the highest winds near the Central American coast. NE winds may reach near gale force in the Windward Passage Mon and Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh tradewinds will prevail east of the front through early Fri. Strong winds will return to offshore Colombia waters Fri night through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front continues to push south and east across the western Atlantic from 31N71W to the central Bahamas near 24N76W to central Cuba near 22N78W. A secondary cold front is analyzed from 31N74W to the northern Bahamas near 27N77W to northwest Cuba near 23N81W. Showers are within 60 nm of each front. A dying stationary front is in the central Atlantic from 30N42W to 19N59W with a 1019 mb low along the front near 23N50W.

In the central Atlantic, a mid-level low is near 25N38W with a trough extending to the NE South American coast. At the surface, a 1018 mb low is near 22N41W with a trough along the low from 30N37W to 19N44W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are near this feature from 21N-29N between 27W-40W. Another trough is seen from 21N31W to 09N25W. Thunderstorms are noted near this trough from 15N-21N between 29W-33W. A 1011 mb low is off the Guinea- Bissau coast near 12N17W with a trough along it from 12N20W to 11N15W.

The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale force NW winds behind the secondary front in the western Atlantic. Strong westerly winds are noted behind the primary front with fresh southerly winds ahead of it N of 29N. Seas in the western Atlantic are 5 to 9 ft.

The cold front will reach Bermuda to E Cuba by the evening, then slowing and gradually stalling into the weekend over the SE waters and Hispaniola. A secondary surge of high pressure and reinforcing cold front will likely sweep across northern areas Fri through Sat night and bring another round of strong W to NW winds. Improving conditions are expected for the start of next week.

$$ AReinhart

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