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265
AXNT20 KNHC 190529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES

The center of POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE at 19/0300 UTC is near 30.4N 27.9W. JOYCE is moving SSW, or 200 degrees, 07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 27N to 32N between 26W and 34W. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ABOUT JOYCE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W/17W from 20N southward, partially in Africa and partially in the ocean. The accompanying precipitation is in Africa.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 19N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N to 20N between 57W and 63W.

A surface trough is along 44W/45W from 12N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 12N between 40W and 51W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 11N14W, to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N25W, and to 08N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 190 nm on either side of the line that runs from 09N14W 07N19W, 06N27W, 06N38W, to 11N51W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, across the N central Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep South of Texas near 27N97W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the coastal waters/coastal plains of SE Louisiana and S MISSISSIPPI, and from 27N southward.

Weak high pressure extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico, supporting light breezes and minimal seas. A surface trough, that is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, will move across the Yucatan Channel through Wed, into the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and then dissipate on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from NW Cuba to E sections of Honduras. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N to Cuba between 79W and 84W.

Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers in clusters are from 13N southward from 77W westward, in broad upper level cyclonic wind flow. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W, to Panama near 09N80W, and beyond NW Costa Rica. Maximo

A surface trough, that is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, will continue moving westward overnight and exit the area on Wednesday, accompanied by active weather. A tropical wave, that is moving across the Lesser Antilles early tonight, will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea later tonight, through the central Caribbean Sea from Thursday into Friday, and pass to the west of the area through late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure, that is building from the central Atlantic Ocean into the central Bahamas, will support moderate to fresh trade winds and building seas across the entire basin from late Wednesday through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE.

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center, that is about 160 nm to the SSW of Bermuda, to the southern half of the Bahamas. A surface trough passes through 32N64W, to 28N66W, and to 23N70W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that runs from 20N northward between 47W and the Windward Passage.

A surface trough, reaching from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas, will shift NW slowly and weaken through early Wednesday, as the central Atlantic Ocean ridge builds into the central Bahamas. Low pressure moving off the Carolinas will drag an attendant frontal trough across the waters north of 27N on Thursday and Friday. The low will move to near 31N67W on Friday evening, and then drift W and weaken slowly on Saturday and Sunday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MT

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