AXNT20 KNHC 211754

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1719 UTC.


A tightening pressure gradient will bring NE gale force winds from 22/00Z to 22/12Z along the N Colombia coast from 11N- 12N between 74W- 76W. Seas are expected to be between 9-14 ft. Winds will stay below gale force after 22/12Z.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W S of 14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. At this time, no significant convection is noted near this feature. Scattered showers are from 05N- 08N between 27W- 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W S of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are seen near this wave from 04N-07N between 51W-53W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along an axis of 63W near the Lesser Antilles S of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W S of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N22W to 06N34W. The ITCZ begins from 06N34W to 07N50W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 07N52W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. The most significant convection is seen along the ITCZ with scattered moderate convection seen off the coast of Venezuela from 08N-11N between 57W-61W.


An upper level trough is stretching across the western Atlantic and into the western Gulf which is giving way to convection across the northern half of the basin. This activity is seen from 24N- 30N between 82W- 95W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the Gulf and Bay of Campeche from 19N-25N between 91W-96W. A surface trough is also seen from 30N84W to 29N85W, off the Florida Panhandle coast, which is sparking thunderstorms. Surface ridging covers most of the area anchored by a 1018 mb high near 30N87W. Light to gentle S-SE winds are seen across the basin with 2-3 ft seas.

A ridge along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will retreat east by Tuesday night and allow a cold front to move over the northern Gulf. The front will then stall and weaken Wednesday and Thursday. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across most of the basin, except for fresh to strong winds pulsing to the W of the Yucatan peninsula tonight and Monday night.


An inverted mid to upper level trough is seen near the arc of the Antilles. However, most of the upper level divergence from this is giving way to convection in the Atlantic. However, there are some isolated thunderstorms beginning to fire along and off the west coast of Puerto Rico. Isolated showers are also moving throughout the Lesser Antilles and the arc of the Antilles.

Isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, especially off the coast of Belize and the Yucatan. This activity is noted from 16N- 18N between 81W-88W. Scattered moderate convection enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough is seen along the coast of Panama and Costa Rica, south of 11N and east of 81W. Fresh to strong trades are seen north of Colombia with light to gentle trades across the rest of the basin. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean Sea through next week. Winds along the coast of Colombia will reach gale force tonight. Fresh easterly winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Monday night.


The upper level trough seen stretching across the Gulf is igniting thunderstorms mostly between the Bahamas and S Florida coast from 24N-28N between 78W-80W. A surface trough is noted across the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands from 26N71W to 20N73W. This, along with the upper level inverted trough, is sparking scattered moderate convection from 21N-26N between 67W- 73W.

Farther east, 4 surface troughs are analyzed with two associated with some convection. The first is noted from 31N46W to 28N56W with isolated thunderstorms within 100 nm NW of the trough. The second is noted from 25N55W to 21N60W with isolated showers within 100 nm west of the feature. The other two troughs are noted from 27N47W to 23N49W and from 24N41W to 19N41W with no significant convection associated with either features. Surface ridging covers the rest of the domain anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N65W.

The trough near the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos will move WNW to reach the waters between the Bahamas and Florida late Monday. The ridge aligned along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Tuesday night. It will start retreating eastward on Tuesday night, enabling a trough to move over the NW waters from Florida Wednesday morning. Fresh to occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each night through the middle of next week.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ AKR