000
AXNT20 KNHC 140015
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale Waring East of 35W: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure of 1034 mb centered about 180 nm south of the
Azores and relatively lower pressures to its SE in NW Africa, and
with a frontal boundary that is in that same area will support
fresh to strong north to northeast winds north of 20N and east of
28N, including the Canary Islands tonight and increasing to near
gale-force in the Meteo-France Agadir and Tarfaya marine zone
tonight as the high pressure shifts eastward. Meteo-France has
issued a Gale Warning for those same zones valid from 14/12 UTC
to at least 15/00 UTC for north or northeast winds at Force 8
with severe gusts. Seas may possibly build to a range of 14 to
18 ft with these winds. There is a persistence or threat of
northeast near gale- force winds for marine zones Madeira,
Canarias, and Cape Blanc. For more details. please refer to the
Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W
southwestward to 04N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the
Equator at 29W and continues to 01S36W and to near 02N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between
38W-41W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front meanders northwestward from central Florida to the
southeastern Louisiana coast. satellite imagery depicts a mostly
dense fog bank along Florida coast from near Ft Myers to the Big
Bend region. The fog reaches out to about 60 nm of the coast.
Another fog bank is seen along the LA and SE TX coasts as well.
Otherwise, two high centers: one of 1020 mb near 27N92W and the
other one of 1019 mb near 26N82.5W are generally continuing to
control the weather pattern throughout the area. Latest
scatterometer satellite data passes indicate light to gentle
anticyclone flow over the basin southwest of the frontal
boundary, with the exceptions of the Bay of Campeche, where
gentle to moderate east winds are noted. Seas are in the range of
2 to 3 ft across the basin.
For the forecast, the present weak pressure pattern will shift to
the eastern and central Gulf sections tonight in response to the
next cold front to approach from the west. A tightening pressure
gradient between lower pressure to west associated with the
frontal system and high pressure over the eastern Gulf will lead
to southeast to south winds increasing to moderate speeds in the
western Gulf tonight, then further to fresh to strong speeds
ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is forecast
to move across the Gulf this weekend. Strong south to southwest
winds and rough seas are expected in the North-central and NE
Gulf with this front on Sun. The front is forecast to exit to
the southeast of the basin by Mon. High pressure will across
the area in the wake of the front. The observed fog banks may
linger well into the afternoon hours while becoming less dense.
Additional widespread fog may develop over sections of the
eastern Gulf from the late night hours and into the morning
hours through Sun. Mariners should be aware of the potential for
lower visibility in the fog areas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Latest scatterometer satellite data passes depict fresh to
strong northeast winds over the waters between 75W and 80W,
including the Windward Passage and vicinity waters. Seas are 5
to 7 ft with these winds, with the exception of slightly higher
seas of 6 to 8 ft in northeast swell confined to south of 12N
between the coast of Colombia and 80W. The scatterometer
satellite data passes also show moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds elsewhere east of about 84W, except south of 17N
between 66W and 70W. Light to gentle northeast winds are west of
84W, and north of 17N between 66W and 70W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are
elsewhere, except for lower seas of 3 to 4 ft in area north of
18N west of 76W, and in the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, pulsing strong northeast winds will prevail
near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate
to rough seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will
develop over the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican
Republic this weekend as a high pressure center passes N of the area
and tightens the pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas will prevail through early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front is analyzed from near 31N57W southwestward to
26N70W, and west-northwestward to inland Florida at Palm Beach,
Florida. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes show fresh
to strong south winds ahead of the front to near 46W and north of
27N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in northwest swell with these winds.
Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are north of the front
west to near 68W and north of 30N. Light to gentle north to
northeast winds are elsewhere north of the front. Seas are 3 to 5
ft in northwest to north swell north of the front, except for
higher seas of 7 to 9 ft in long-period west to northwest swell
east of 68W. A pre-frontal trough extends from near 31N52W to
24N59W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen north of 24N
between 49W and 56W. To the south, another trough extends from
near 23.5N59W southwestward to 20N67W and to inland northern
Hispaniola. 2N61W southwestward along the northern Hispaniola
coast. A broad upper-level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
to be to its northwest. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 21N to 24N between 56W and 66W while
isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 24N between 63W
and 68W.
Over the far the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends
from far northern Africa southwestward to 27N14W and to near
27N35W. No significant convection is occurring with this front.
Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are north of the front.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are present south of the
front to near 19N, and also from 16N to 27N between 35W and 40W.
Seas over these waters are 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell east of
31W, and in east swell west of 31W. These trades are mostly the
result of the pressure difference between strong high pressure of
1034 mb located well north of the area at 35N27.5W and
relatively lower pressures to its south in the deep tropics.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere,
with lower seas of 2 to 3 ft in the waters of and near the Bahama
Islands.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front that
extends from near 31N57W southwestward to 26N70W, and west-northwestward
to inland Florida at Palm Beach will shift eastward with high pressure
building in the wake of the front. South winds will strengthen
offshore north and central Florida on Sun in advance of another
cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on
Mon. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas are
expected in the wake of the front.
$$
Aguirre
