552
AXNT20 KNHC 101006
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jul 10 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed near 21W from 04N-19N, moving west at
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 07N-13N
between the coast of Africa and 25W.
A tropical wave is analyzed near 38W, from 05N-18N, moving west
at around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave
axis.
A tropical wave is analyzed near 66W from 20N to northern
Venezuela, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection
is noted with this wave.
A tropical wave is analyzed near 82W from 07-22N, and is moving
west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the
far SW Caribbean, and also from 14-17N between 80-85W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then continues
to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 05N53W. Other than the
convection mentioned above in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06-09N between 23-30W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1020 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near
27N86W. A couple of surface troughs are analyzed over the east
coast of Mexico, and over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the Bay of Campeche trough. This pattern
otherwise is supporting gentle to moderate breezes across the
Gulf with slight seas, with the exception of the Bay of Campeche
where winds are moderate to fresh.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the basin
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula
each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and
shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on convection associated
with the tropical waves moving through the basin.
Aside from the convection associated with tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is ongoing over coastal portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, and Honduras. A strong Bermuda High and lower
pressure over the SW Caribbean continue to generate a tight
pressure gradient that is resulting in fresh to strong E winds in
the central to SW Caribbean with rough seas. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean, while
moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere with slight seas.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
and relatively lower pressure in Colombian will continue to
support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the
south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh east
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night,
through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate
seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.
Scattered thunderstorms are active along a trough over the
northern Bahamas. Elsewhere, the entire subtropical waters are
under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High, which is
supporting moderate to fresh E winds from 10-25N between 35-75W,
except for fresh to strong E winds and rough seas north of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Moderate or weaker winds prevail
across the remainder of the Atlantic waters. Moderate seas prevail
elsewhere across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging will shift
southward today, then begin to lift back N afterward. The related
pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds, except
for fresh to strong east to southeast winds off the northern coast
of Hispaniola through Sat and fresh winds Sun and moderate to
fresh winds early next week.
$$
ERA
