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000
AXNT20 KNHC 190559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EST Mon Nov 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N15W and 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 03N31W, 04N41W, and 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 06N to 08N between 39W and 42W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 06N between 10W and 21W, from 07N to 09N between 30W and 35W, and from 03N to 06N between 38W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N southward from 50W eastward, and from 10N southward between 50W and 60W. An upper level trough is pulling middle level and high level clouds northeastward, within 150 nm on either side of the line that runs from 08N60W to 14N54W to 19N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.

A cold front is in the NW Gulf of Mexico waters, from east Texas, just into the waters about 45 nm offshore from the middle Texas Gulf coast, to the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Rainshowers are possible, in broken low level and middle level clouds, from 90W westward.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 27N86W, 24N84W, and 22N81W in NW Cuba. Rainshowers are possible, in low level clouds, that are in the Gulf of Mexico from 28N southward from 87W eastward.

The current cold front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico by Monday night. Fresh to strong winds are forecast behind the front affecting the western Bay of Campeche through Wednesday morning. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Texas coast early on Tuesday, merging with the northern half of the stationary front that is forecast to extend from the Florida Big Bend to 27N92W by early Wednesday morning. The remaining part of the front will stall and then drift northwest through midweek A low pressure center is forecast to develop in the NW waters on Thursday morning, with fresh to strong winds affecting the northern waters through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW surface trough is along 21N85W to 18N87W to 16N88W in Guatemala, just to the east of the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 19N southward from 83W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the coastal waters from 15N southward, from Nicaragua to Panama. A middle level inverted trough is in the western sections of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 77W and beyond 85W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 10N southward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A Gulf of Honduras surface trough will continue to support scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms through Monday night, including in parts of Belize. Strong high pressure, that is anchored near Nova Scotia, will continue to support fresh to strong winds along the coast of Colombia through Tuesday morning. The wind speeds will diminish briefly afterward, as a front moves N of the area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse again in this region on Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday night, as a new ridge starts to build behind that front. Large swell in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to impact the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Wednesday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N53W, curving to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 30N65W, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 27N70W, and to 23N74W in the SE Bahamas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 27N northward between 45W and 70W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 18N northward from 40W westward.

An upper level trough passes through 32N11W, across Morocco and Mauritania, to 09N32W in the Atlantic Ocean. A second cold front passes through Algeria along the Prime Meridian and 32N, through western Mauritania near 21N17W and 20N21W. A surface trough continues from 20N21W, to 20N30W, 18N35W, and 18N42W. Rainshowers are possible are within 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from 17N46W to 18N35W to 20N27W beyond 21N17W.

The current stationary front will weaken gradually through Monday night when it is forecast to dissipate. A center of low pressure is forecast to develop NE of the central Bahamas on Monday morning, which will move northward through early Tuesday. The low pressure center then will merge with a reinforcing cold front, that will move across the the NE waters through Wednesday. A strong pressure gradient between that front and strong high pressure behind it will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the northern waters from Thursday night through Friday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MT

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