000
AXNT20 KNHC 161110 RRA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is just inland the
southeastern coast of the U.S. Ahead of it, southerly winds have
increased to 25 to 35 kt in a tightening pressure gradient over a a
portion of the waters east of northern Florida along with seas of 8
to 11 ft. These winds are primarily north of 29N and between 75W and
77W. They will spread eastward during the morning. The cold front
will reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to west-central
Cuba by early this afternoon, at which time these winds are expected
to shift north of 31N.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and
extends southwestward to 03N22W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to inland Brazil at
02S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 120 nm south of the trough between 16W-20W and within 60 nm
north of the trough between 17W-20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from is analyzed from north-central Florida
southwestward to 25N88W to the central Bay of Campeche. Overnight
scatterometer satellite data shows fresh west to northwest winds
behind the front to near 90W, and gentle to moderate north to
northeast winds are west of 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with the winds
behind the front, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 25N east of 94W
and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except for lower seas of 2 to 4 ft in the
far northwest Gulf and in the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin this
afternoon. Winds over the NE Gulf will gradually diminish this
morning as high pressure in the wake of the front begins to slide
eastward across the area. Winds will become gentle to moderate
along with slight to moderate seas beginning this afternoon and
continuing into early Tue before southerly moderate to fresh winds
develop in the western Gulf. These winds will expand eastward in
coverage through Fri as low pressure, with an attendant cold front
move through central Texas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A frontal remnant trough extends across Puerto Rico southwestward
into the east-central Caribbean along 68W. Fresh northeast to east
winds prevail north of about 15N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh
to strong winds continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia to 15N,
with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, a 1034 mb high
pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is supporting
moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas east of 80W, and gentle
to moderate southeast winds in the the northwestern part of the
basin.
For the forecast, pulsing strong northeast winds will prevail
near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate
to rough seas are expected with these winds. Light to gentle winds
over the NW Caribbean will strengthen by the end of the week.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will
prevail.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the northwest waters
for this morning. Please refer to the Special Feature section
above for more details.
A cold front is analyzed from the north-central Atlantic through
31N41W to 23N49W, then becomes stationary to 19N63W and a frontal
remnant trough to Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds as seen in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes are
north and northwest of the front to near 72W. Anticyclonic light to
gentle winds are north of 24N between of 51W and 57W in response to
a 1023 mb high center near 32N61W and a 1024 mb high center that is
near 33N53W. North of 25N and west of 72W, southerly winds are fresh
to near gale outside the gale-force winds as described above under
Special Features. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these winds, except 3 ft
or less in the lee of the central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and
3 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere, except for higher seas of 5 to 7 ft
north of 18N between 46W and 52W, and seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 27N
between 37W and 46W with fresh to strong south winds ahead of a cold
front.
East of the cold front to 35W and north f 26N, fresh south to
southwest winds prevail along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. East of 35W
and N of 10N, fresh to strong trades and rough seas prevail due to
an enhanced pressure difference between a 1034 mb high near
36N14W and lower pressures in the deep tropics. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas are elsewhere south of 20N to the Lesser
Antilles.
For the forecast west of 55W outside of the Gale Warning area,
low pressure intensifying offshore the Carolinas will pull a cold
front across the offshore waters of northern Florida today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front, with a
squall line are north of 28N between 74W and 77W. This activity
will continue eastward into the afternoon. The cold front will
reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to west-central Cuba
by early this afternoon, from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas
and to central Cuba tonight, then from near 31N58W to 24N65W and
stationary to South Florida Tue. The cold front portion will move
east of 55W late Tue while the stationary portion weakens, with
frontal remnants lifting back N as a warm front Wed. An expanding
areas of fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas will
precede the front today. Fresh to strong winds northerly winds and
building seas will follow the front through late tonight. Seas may
possibly reach 14 ft in the far northern forecast waters Tue, then
shift to the far northeast part of the area Wed before moving east
of 55W Wed night. The fresh to strong winds will diminish on Tue.
Rough seas will linger elsewhere east of 60W through Thu. Mariners
are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.
$$
Aguirre
