000
AXNT20 KNHC 192217
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jul 20 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 36W from 05N
to 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 07N to 11N between 29W and 37W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 88W from the
Gulf of Honduras through Honduras and into the eastern Pacific. It
is moving west at around 10 kt. Convection associated with this
wave is confined to the eastern Pacific basin.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, then curves
southwestward passing near the Cabo Verde Islands to 10N24W and
continuing to 06N44W. The ITCZ extends from 06N44W to 06N53W.
Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave along 36W,
scattered moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 12N between
19W and 26W and from 05N to 11N between 37W and 49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A westward-moving surface trough over the western Bay of Campeche
is supporting scattered moderate convection S of 21N and W of 96W.
Convection in the northern basin has generally diminished, as high
pressure centered over Louisiana gradually builds S into the
region. Winds E of the trough in the Bay of Campeche are fresh,
with moderate winds in the Florida Straits and offshore NW Cuba.
Otherwise, mainly light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are less
than 3 ft, except localized 4 ft seas where the moderate or higher
winds are ongoing.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will prevail
across the basin through the middle of the next week producing
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds will pulse along the Yucatan
Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next week as a
trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of
Campeche at night. Looking ahead, winds may increase to fresh
speeds across the NE Gulf by Thu.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted
south of 12N and west of 80W in association to the eastern end of
the Pacific Monsoon Trough. The pressure gradient between western
Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia low is
currently sustaining strong to near gale northeast to east trades
and seas of 9 to 13 ft over the south- central section of the
Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds with seas at 7
to 10 ft are over the southwestern part of the basin. Mainly
fresh NE to E winds are over the north- central and eastern
sections of the basin, south of Cuba, and over the Windward
Passage. Seas in these water are 4 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker
winds prevail in the NW basin with seas 3 to 4 ft.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
locate N of area and the Colombian low will support fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through early next
week. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas
will prevail in the Windward Passage through tonight. At the same
time, expect fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will
diminish slightly Sun into next week as western Atlantic high
pressure weakens.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The ridging from a 1028 mb high pressure near 35N42W is
supporting light to gentle winds with 2 to 3 ft seas north of 26N
between 60W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Moderate to
fresh east winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the waters of the
southeastern Bahamas. Otherwise, mostly moderate northeast to
east winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are over the waters from 09N to
31N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate northeast winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will dominate the weather
pattern across the forecast region through early next week. A
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow will prevail along with
moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas
north of Hispaniola to about 22N, including approaches to the
Windward Passage, will diminish late tonight. Winds will diminish
slightly Sun into next week as high pressure weakens over the
western Atlantic, and a frontal boundary clips the offshore waters
of NE Florida.
$$
Konarik
