AXNT20 KNHC 180530

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.


A tropical wave axis extends from 12N26W to 02N26W. This wave is moving W around 10 kt and is well defined in the TPW product as well as in model diagnostic guidance. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 13N43W to 03N46W, moving W at 10 kt. A modest surge of moistened air is noted in association with this wave in TPW imagery. Only limited cloudiness and isolated showers are associated with this wave.

A tropical wave over the tropical N Atlantic has an axis extending from 14N56W to 06N58W, moving W at around 15 kt. The wave is depicted in model guidance and coincides with a high amplitude bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW product. Currently, scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 53W and 56W.

A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an axis extending along 72W-73W between 12N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave's environment. As a result, only shallow moisture and no convection is associated with this feature at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across southern Mexico and the EPAC waters, with axis extending from 19N95W to 12N96W, moving W at around 10-15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. The wave is also interacting with an upper-level trough currently located over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 15N between 93W-99W.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W to 08N24W. The ITCZ is from 06N29W to 06N42W, then resumes from 06N47W to 08N56W. In addition to the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N-10N between 18W-23W.



An upper-level trough extends across the western Gulf with axis along 95W, with an upper-level low centered near 21N95W. Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring to the east of the low primarily over the Gulf waters between 88W-93W due to a tight pressure gradient. Scattered moderate convection covers the Gulf mainly west of 87W. Heavy rainfall continues over the Yucatan Peninsula with localized flooding possible. To the east, a weak 1020 mb high pressure resides over the far NE Gulf near 29N84W.

The upper-level trough will gradually move WNW through Mon, accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms that could produce rough seas. The tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong SE winds over the west-central Gulf waters. These winds will spread westward through Tue while gradually diminishing.


Fresh to strong trades across the S central Caribbean from 11N to 14N between 73W and 79W will gradually decrease in areal coverage through mid week. Similar pulsing winds will continue in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras.

A tropical wave will reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles towards the morning, then enter the eastern Caribbean through Wed night. This system is expected to be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. As the wave passes across the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean, it will bring gusty winds and a modest increase in showers and thunderstorms to the Leeward Islands, the UK/US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week.


A cold front extends SW from 31N56W to 25N70W, then becomes weak through 29N79W. Cloudiness and scattered showers are present along and up to 180 nm SE of the front north of 27N and east of 75W. A 1033 mb surface high centered over the Azores near 38N26W ridges SW to the northeast of Puerto Rico near 20N68W.

The cold front will stall over and E of the northern Bahamas during the next couple of days while weakening. The high pressure ridge over the Azores will continue to ridge SW across the western Atlantic.

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