AXNT20 KNHC 160615 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, to 05N11W. The ITCZ continues from 05N11W to 04N29W. A surface trough is along 31W-32W from 08N to the Equator. The ITCZ resumes from 02N34W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the trough and the ITCZ near Brazil south of 11N and west of 29W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along and within the ITCZ south of 20N between 14W-24W.


The pair of cold fronts that was on the eastern Gulf waters have started to exit the area and enter the western Caribbean. First front extends from the western Atlantic into the Straits of Florida. The second front, now a dissipating cold front extends from 30N78W into central Florida near 27N80W to the eastern Gulf waters near 25N82W. Scattered showers are possible near the dissipating front. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N83W to 25N88W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb surface high centered over northern Mexico.

A high pres ridge will build over the northern Gulf Sun and Mon, then slide E Tue. Low pres will move NE from the coast of Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu and drag the next cold front across the Gulf. Winds and seas in the Gulf will continue to diminish tonight through Mon. Easterly flow across the N Gulf on Tue will veer to SE Wed as low pres develops over the SW gulf.


A cold front extends from the western Atlantic into a stationary front from western Cuba near 22N81W to western coast of Honduras near 15N87W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 20N81W to 13N84W. Scattered showers are noted over the northwest Caribbean and near the coast of Honduras from mainly west of 80W.

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the SW Caribbean, while an upper-level trough is east of the Lesser Antilles. In between, dry air covers the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

The N portion of the front will continue slowly moving E to central Cuba Sun afternoon and to eastern Cuba Mon afternoon, then the front will dissipate as the N portion reaches eastern Cuba Tue. Strong N winds are expected W of the front across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean E of 80W through early Mon, with the highest winds ramping up along the NW coast of Colombia at night. Large N swell will continue funneling from the Atlc through the NE Caribbean passages tonight and Sun.


A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N75W into the eastern Bahamas near 26N78W and then to western Cuba near 23N81W. A second front is beginning to dissipate north of 30N and west of 78W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the first cold front mainly north of 31N to 27N between 71W-75W. Behind the front, scatterometer pass shows small area of strong to near gale force winds between 32W to 37W. Scattered showers are noted along the vicinity of the front south of 27N. To the east, another front is analyzed as a cold front from 31N27W to 22N50W, then as a stationary front continues from that point to to 23N59W to 27N68W. Scattered showers are observed along the cold front. A surface trough is observed near the coast of Africa from 30N10W to 23N12W.

The cold front extending from 31N75W to the eastern Bahamas will push E and extend from 31N73W across the NW Bahamas to central Cuba Sun afternoon, from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and E central Cuba Mon afternoon, then finally stall and weaken from near 25N66W to eastern Cuba Tue.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Torres