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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A reinforcing cold front will reach the NW Gulf coast Wednesday and combined with the stationary front in the region. The cold front will quickly move southeast across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front, with gales force winds developing over W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu. Wave heights are forecast to range between 9-12 ft Wed night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the Caribbean combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm off the coast of Colombia each night through early Wed morning. Wave heights generated by these winds are forecast to range between 10-14 ft each day. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N18W to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-06N between 22W-37W. Near the coast of Brazil, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the coast near the ITCZ from 01S-02N and west of 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about gale force winds in the SW Gulf.

Surface ridging prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the west Atlantic. Cold front has moved into the northwest Gulf from 29N94W to near 26N97W near Port Mansfield, Texas. Scattered showers are noted along the cold front. ASCAT depicts moderate to fresh SE winds prevailing across the basin.

The weak cold front currently located over the far NW Gulf will stall there through today. A reinforcing cold front will reach the stationary front and merged by Wed morning. The combined front will quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front, with gales developing over W-central Gulf on Wed and over SW Gulf late Wed through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish on Fri. Return S winds should begin building over W Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details about gale force winds during the overnight and early morning hours near the coast of Colombia.

Latest ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the central Caribbean between 70W-78W from 14N to 17N, while fresh to strong are present south of 14N to the coast of Colombia between 71W-77W. Mid-level water vapor imagery shows dry and stable air over the basin, with only a few plumes of shallow moisture depicted in the low-level precipitable water imagery. This shallow moisture along with middle to upper-level diffluent flow may support scattered showers mainly over the NW Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue night. N swell will propagate into the Tropical N Atlantic waters Tue through Thu. A frontal boundary will remain north of the northeast Caribbean enhancing winds/seas/convection over the Greater Antilles. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Thu followed by fresh to strong NE winds over the NW Caribbean waters on Fri and through the passes on Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 30N40W to 22N54W, then becomes stationary from that point to 20N68W. Fresh SW to W winds associated with the front are north of 25N between 35W and 55W as indicated by the latest scatterometer data. Fresh to strong N to NW winds prevail behind the front mainly N of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the front mainly N of 26N. Surface ridge prevails over the W Atlantic waters, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N69W. ASCAT indicates moderate to fresh southerly winds north of the Bahamas to 32N. Surface ridging also prevail across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N16W. Moderate to fresh winds are present along the southern periphery of the ridge.

Looking ahead in the western Atlantic, the reinforcing cold front extending along 21N will continue to move southward over the Greater Antilles today. S to SW winds will increase across the waters east of N Florida tonight. Low pressure crossing north of Bermuda will bring fresh to strong W winds to the NE waters on Tue. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system Wed night through Thu night, mainly N of 27N. Winds and seas should diminish Fri and Sat.

$$ Torres

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