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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm PETER, at 21/1500 UTC, is near 19.9N 64.7W. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest, or 290 degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in clusters is within 160 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere, within 300 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm ROSE, at 21/1500 UTC, is near 21.6N 36.9W. Rose is moving toward the northwest, or 325 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in clusters is within 160 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere, within 860 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 15N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near 09.5N. The environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form by Thursday or Friday, while the system moves westward 10 to 15 mph through the eastern and central sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 400 nm to 660 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Please, refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. The formation chance through 48 hours is medium.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

No tropical waves are in the surface map analysis at this moment.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is along the 27W/28W tropical wave, to 06N30W and 07N34W. The ITCZ continues from 07N34W to 08N39W, and to the coastal border areas of French Guiana and Suriname. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the line 13N38W 09N46W 13N54W 18N59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through the Florida Panhandle into the east central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the waters that are from 26N northward from 92W eastward.

A surface trough passes through inland Mexico near 23N100W, to 18N92W in the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N southward from 90W westward.

A 1018 mb high pressure is in Florida near 29N82W. A surface ridge extends from the 1018 mb high pressure center to 26N95W in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure will extend across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico through Tue. This pattern will support continued gentle to moderate winds and mostly slight seas across the Gulf. An early season cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wed and reach from the NE Gulf to central Bay of Campeche by late Thu before stalling, supporting increased winds and seas over the northwest and north-central Gulf Tue night through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough, that is about 660 nm to the west of T.S. Peter, extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 30N73W, through the Windward Passage area, to NE Nicaragua. This feature was in more or less the same location 24 hours ago. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N northward from 80W westward, including in the Caribbean Sea, and inland in Mexico and in Central America, and to the north of the line that runs from the Mona Passage to 13N at the eastern coast of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 25N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 21N76W in SE Cuba.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in individual clusters is from 15N southward from 70W westward.

Tropical Storm Peter near 19.9N 64.7W 1008 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Peter will weaken to a tropical depression near 20.7N 65.7W this evening with maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Peter will continue north of the area while weakening to a remnant low by early Thu morning and continuing to south of Bermuda from Fri through late Sat. As this occurs, trade winds over the south- central Caribbean Sea will diminish through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Information about Tropical Storm Peter, and about Tropical Storm Rose, is given in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, .

A cold front passes through 31N48W to 27N60W, and to 28N69W. A stationary front continues from 28N69W, northwestward, to the coastal border of South Carolina and Georgia. A weakening upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 260 nm to the north of T.S. Peter. A NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough, that is about 660 nm to the west of T.S. Peter, extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 30N73W, through the Windward Passage area, to NE Nicaragua. This feature was in more or less the same location 24 hours ago. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 150 nm of the Florida east coast from 26N northward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward from 86W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm on either side of the frontal boundary.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19/1410 UTC. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued by Meteo- France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

Tropical Storm Peter near 19.9N 64.7W 1008 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Peter will weaken to a tropical depression near 20.7N 65.7W this evening with maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt, move to near 21.7N 67.0W Wed morning, to near 22.7N 67.5W Wed evening with maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt, become a remnant low near 23.4N 67.6W Thu morning, reach near 24.4N 67.0W Thu evening, and to near 25.4N 66.2W Fri morning. Peter will change little in intensity as it moves to near 27.5N 64.4W early on Sat and to near 29.8N 62.5W early on Sun. Elsewhere west of 70W, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist over open waters through the week.

$$ mt/ja

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