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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281103
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A slow moving cold front extends from the central Leeward Islands northeastward and spirals in to deep layered low pressure over the western Atlantic, where complex surface low pressure extends from just SE of Bermuda to 25N64W. The cold front extends from the Lesser Antilles to 25N54W to 31N60W. A broad high pressure ridge NE of the front is inducing a tight pressure gradient along and NE of the front, producing an elongated band of strong to gale-force SE winds up to 300 nm E of the front, with gales occurring within about 150 nm E of the front from 26N to 33N. Seas within this zone are 10 to 15 ft. The surface low pressure will move SE and weaken today, while the front drifts eastward, and the gales move north of 31N this afternoon. The low pressure and front are expected to move NE and and out of the area Fri as the next frontal system moves into the western Atlantic.


...ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

Very large northerly swell, that has originating in the NE Atlantic offshore of Europe, will enter the far NE Atlantic waters S of 31N this morning. Seas will quickly build to 12 ft and greater, and reach a peak of around 19 feet, this evening and tonight. Seas of 12 ft will reach as far W as 46W early Fri, and as far S as 20N Fri evening before subsiding below 12 ft early on Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07.5N13W to 01N30W. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 08N between 19W and 53W.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow moving cold front extends from the NE Gulf near Cedar Key, Florida to the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A cluster of strong convection persists along the front offshore of SW Florida and NW Cuba. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft follow the front, but have diminished across the far NW Gulf in recent hours. Fresh south to southwest winds are ahead of the front south of 27N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Fresh northerly winds have spread into the Bay of Campeche, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. A ridge i is building southward behind the front and dominates the western Gulf.

For the forecast, strong thunderstorms will continue along the front across the SE Gulf this morning, as the front moves SE and clears the Gulf basin later today. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front across the Gulf. Winds and seas will subside late tonight into Fri as high pressure moves across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, the high pressure will shift E and support fresh E to SE winds across the western Gulf Sat through Mon.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Southeasterly winds have diminished across the NW Caribbean in the past few hours, as a cold front has reached the NE coast of the Yucatan and is entering the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing along the front as it moves over waters. Seas across the NW basin have subsided to 4 to 5 ft. The pressure gradient between weak high pressure that is present just north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker pressures in the Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds over the central Caribbean. The southern portion of a central Atlantic cold front has become nearly stationary across the central Leeward Islands as a weakening front. The weak ridge extending across the Bahamas into Cuba and Hispaniola is producing mostly gentle to moderate northerly winds behind the front across the northeast Caribbean. Large northerly swell reached the northeast Caribbean coasts and Passages yesterday and is moving through the passages and through narrow zones to the south across the eastern Caribbean. Regional buoy observations are revealing seas of 7 to 8 ft through the passages, and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere across the eastern basin. Scattered to broken low clouds and isolated showers are noted over the eastern Caribbean to the NW of the stalled front.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward across the Yucatan Channel this morning, then reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will immediately follow the front across the NW Caribbean today and tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Fri across NW portions as the front reaches the the NE coast of Cuba to NE Honduras, then weakens from Hispaniola to the Honduras-Nicaragua border on Sat. High pressure building north of the region in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and across the Windward Passage Fri night through Sat evening. Winds and seas will then diminish there Sat night. Moderate N swell is moving through the NE Caribbean Passages and adjacent Tropical Atlantic waters this morning and will gradually subside through early Fri. Strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern coast of Hispaniola Sat and Sun as the high pressure settles NE of the Bahamas.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Moderate to large N to NE swell dominates the western Atlantic between the Bahamas and a cold front described above in the special features along 54W-55W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across much of this area. Complex low pressure at the surface has developed SE through S of Bermuda, underneath deep layered low pressure aloft that has lingered across the Bermuda area for the past 24 hours. Surface low pressure SE of Bermuda is moving SE and maintaining moderate to fresh N to NW winds across the area between 62W and 70W, where peas seas to 10 ft or noted. Very active thunderstorms continue along and within 200 nm E of the front to the N of 19N. W of 70W, NE swell is subsiding to 6 to 7 ft. Fresh southerly winds are occurring offshore of Florida and into the Straits of Florida, ahead of the approaching front now across N Florida. A few clusters of moderate convection have recently develop offshore of NE Florida and Georgia.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a high pressure ridge centered between the cold front and the Azores. Fresh to strong anticyclonic flow is occurring south of the associated ridge and E of the above mentioned cold front. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Rough to very rough seas surrounds the Madeira Islands, as large swell described above is moving southward towards 31N this morning. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the tropical Atlantic with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the broad low pressure SE of Bermuda will move southeast to near 26N60W this afternoon, then weaken to a trough and move slowly NE and east of 55W Fri night. Large northerly swell dominates the waters W of 60W and will gradually subside through early Fri. An associated cold front extends from 31N69W to 26N55W to the central Lesser Antilles. An area of strong to gale-force S to SE winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered strong thunderstorms remains active to the east of the front, N of 20N. SE gales occurring N of 26N will move N of the area this evening, while the front gradually shifts to the east of 55W by Fri morning. Farther west, a new cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast this morning, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by midday Fri, from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by Sat morning, then move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds and rough seas will follow this front, then diminish from west to east as high pressure build eastward along roughly 29N, and settle NE of the Bahamas Sun and Mon.

$$ Stripling

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