AXNT20 KNHC 251150

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
728 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC.


A tropical wave is analyzed along 29.5W from 02N to 18N and has been moving W at 12 kt over the past 24 hours. Isolated moderate convection associated to this wave is noted from 03N to 10N between 23W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W from 04N to 19N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N within 150 nm either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the east Caribbean along 62W from 05N to 20N and has been moving west at 18 kt but should begin to slow it's forward progression. Isolated showers are observed within 120 nm of the wave.

A tropical wave is moving west through the central Caribbean and is currently along 73W and extends north across the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and tstms are enhanced near the wave across northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia.

Another tropical wave is along 86W and will pass through the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras today. Only isolated showers accompany the wave. This wave will likely lose identity on Tue as it merges into a broad low pressure over the East Pacific along 95W.


The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western at 12.5N17W to 06N23W where an ITCZ forms and continues southwest 03N50W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical wave, isolated moderate to occasionally strong convection is observed west of 18W within 240 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.



An upper-level cyclone is centered over Mexico near 22N99W. Upper diffluence e of this cyclone is supporting isolated showers and tstms over the northwest and far southwest waters. The upper cyclone is forecast to continue westward through Tue while continuing to enhance convection across the western gulf. An east to west surface ridge extends from the Florida Big Bend to northeast Texas. Isolated showers and tstms are observed east of 88W and south of the ridge axis.


See tropical wave section for details on three waves progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted across the Caribbean south of 18N with moderate to locally fresh easterly flow north of 18N. The areal coverage of the fresh to strong trades will decrease over the next few days, with strong winds continuing mainly over the south-central Caribbean by midweek. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong through Tue night in the Gulf of Honduras.


A quasi-stationary 1026 mb surface high is centered near 31N54W with a ridge extending westward to across north Florida, and a ridge extending southeast to near 23N33W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the tropics west of 45W. The pressure gradient is forecast to relax somewhat on Tue with the trades lightly diminishing by midweek. Nocturnal winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong the next several nights off Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Nelson