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000
AXNT20 KNHC 190520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13N43W to 05N44W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that runs from 04N to 12N between 40W and 50W. A surface trough is along 34W/35W from 08N to 15N. The southernmost part of the 43W/44W tropical wave moved comparatively faster than the northernmost part of the tropical wave. This surface trough represents that part of the wave that has remained as the wave became stretched out on a NE-to-SW line. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 15N between 30W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from Hispaniola southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 70W and 80W, with an upper level trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave reached 90W/91W from the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico southward. The wave has been absorbed into the Central American Gyre since the 19/0000 UTC map analysis. The western end of an upper level trough is present in a central Guatemala upper level cyclonic circulation center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in Guatemala from 17N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere in Central America from Nicaragua northwestward.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland without reaching the coastal sections of Guinea. The ITCZ passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N20W, to 04N29W, and to 04N34W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N to 09N between 14W and 19W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 06N between 25W and 32W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere within 150 nm to 210 nm on either side of the line that runs from 07N12W to 05N22W to 02N34W. The ITCZ also is along 11N45W 09N50W 09N59W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 04N to 13N between 48W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front reaches 29N80W in the Atlantic Ocean. The front is stationary from 29N80W, across Florida to 28N90W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 28N96W, and then curving to the coast of Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico at the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 18N94W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 16N in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to 20N between 93W and 96W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 90W westward in the Gulf of Mexico.

The current stationary front will dissipate slowly, north of 27N, through Friday night. The front will persist west of 94W through early Sunday. The winds and sea heights will diminish in the western Gulf of Mexico as the front weakens. A cold front will enter the Gulf waters on Saturday, extend from central Florida to southern Texas on Sunday, stall and weaken Sunday night and Monday, and then lift northward as a warm front early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 20N58W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the NE part of the Caribbean Sea, to Hispaniola and the Windward Passage, to a broad upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near the Cayman Islands, to central Guatemala. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 70W eastward. An upper level trough also extends from the Windward Passage toward NW Venezuela that is along 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is between 70W and 80W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas of the ABC Islands, Venezuela, and Colombia from 13N southward from 72W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 19/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC, are 1.66 in Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the region through Tuesday. The highest wind speeds are expected near the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and south of E Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N58W to 29N70W and to 29N80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to the NW of the line that passes through 32N55W to 30N58W to 28N63W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 27N northward from 63W westward.

An upper level trough is along 32N48W 25N54W 20N58W, beyond the NE part of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 49W/50W from 18N to 30N. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 20N to 32N between 39W and 60W, and from 20N to 25N between 60W and the Bahamas. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and rainshowers also are within 210 nm on either side of the line that runs from 23N47W to 18N54W to 14N60W.

The eastern part of the current cold front will extend from 30N65W to 29N81W tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds, and building seas, are expected to the north of the front through Friday. A second cold front will move off northern Florida on Saturday night, with fresh to strong NE winds and building seas, behind the front through Monday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MT

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