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692
AXNT20 KNHC 141207
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A low pressure system centered near 37N47W is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for this low to become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 08N to 20N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered rain showers are in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 10N between 26W and 32W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 08N to 21N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 09N between 47W and 54W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of N Hispaniola from 18N to 21N between 67W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the monsoon trough south of 12N.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W to 09N20W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 10N40W to 08N450W to the coast of South America near 07N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 36W and 40W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near 18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W. A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W.

On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N85W to 26N88W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 18N93W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis.

A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of the basin through Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras and Nicaragua enhancing convection.

The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and 83W, to include N Colombia and Panama.

Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through today. Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow from an upper level trough covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward and west of 70W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow associated with a trough covers the Atlantic from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers cover the Atlantic Ocean north of 28N between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a trailing surface trough are north of the area along 50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center near 30N66W. The tail end of a surface trough extends from 32N50W to 27N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Another 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N29W producing fair weather.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa

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