008
AXNT20 KNHC 050557
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jul 5 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Three is centered near 30.6N 78.8W at
05/0600 UTC or 140 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina,
stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring north of 26N
and west of 74W. The depression has been nearly stationary
tonight, but a slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected
to begin later today, followed by a motion toward the north by
the end of the day, and then northeast by Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move
near or over the coast of South Carolina on Sunday morning.
Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today. The depression is expected to
bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the southeastern
United States coastline north of northeastern Florida during the
next couple of days.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Three
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details. Please refer to wwww.hurricanes.gov for more
details.
Gale Warning E of 35W:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system
located just north of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa
will support gale-force northeast winds with severe gusts close
and between the Canary Islands until at least 06/00 UTC according
to Meteo France. Seas will be moderate to rough, peaking around 10
ft. Mariners are also advised that visibility may be reduced to
moderate or poor due to sand haze, especially in the far E part.
For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast
listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave remains surrounded by a
dry and stable atmospheric environment. A few showers are evident
near the southern portion of the trough axis.
An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 5-10 kt. A dry and stable atmospheric environment
also surrounds this wave. Only isolated showers are near its
southern part.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 120 nm of the northern portion of the wave axis.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 19N,
moving across Central America and the far eastern Pacific. The
wave is enhancing the storm activity over Central America and the
eastern Pacific.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to
07N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present from 05N to 13N and east of 27W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough trough extends across central Florida from T.D.
Three off NE Florida to the eastern Gulf. Scattered showers are
evident across the eastern Gulf, while generally dry conditions
are prevalent elsewhere, especially in the Bay of Campeche. A weak
high pressure over the central Gulf supports moderate to fresh
easterly winds and slight to moderate seas south of 22N and east
of 94W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas are
noted north of 24N and west of 95W. In the remainder of the basin,
light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, a surface trough will prevail across the NE Gulf
through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop along this trough over the waters near
Florida. Weak high pressure will then prevail into early next
week. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next
week as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward
over the Bay of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please
see the Tropical Wave section for more details.
Abundant moisture and low-level convergence sustain scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean, while
drier conditions are seen in the rest of the basin. The
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the
Caribbean waters, supporting fresh to locally strong easterly
winds and moderate seas over much of the central Caribbean. Mainly
moderate easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are evident
in the eastern Caribbean, while light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail in the rest of the basin.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge
and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to
strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of
moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras late Sat through
Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Three and a Gale Warning in effect E of 35W. ALso, two
tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please
see the Tropical Wave section for more information.
Aside from T.D. Three, a surface trough centered north of
Hispaniola and divergence aloft sustain scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 23N to 29N and between 60W and 70W.
The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the
influence of a broad subtropical ridge supporting moderate to
locally fresh SE winds and slight to moderate seas.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong ridge
in the far NE Atlantic that is forcing fresh to near gale-force
NE winds and moderate to rough seas east of 40W and north of 20N.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found
south of 25N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are evident.
For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Depression Three is near
30.6N 78.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 0 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 1012 mb. Three will strengthen to a tropical
storm near 30.9N 79.1W Sat morning, move to 31.7N 79.5W Sat
evening, inland to 32.9N 79.8W Sun morning, weaken to a remnant
low near 34.2N 79.6W Sun evening, 35.5N 78.5W Mon morning, and
dissipate Mon evening. The main impacts of T.D. Three will remain
north of 31N. High pressure will prevail elsewhere. This pattern
will support generally gentle to moderate winds except for fresh
to strong winds pulsing off the northern coast of Hispaniola by
Sat night.
$$
Delgado
