AXNT20 KNHC 201806

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 PM EST Sun Jan 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic...

ASCAT data indicates gale force winds occurring ahead and behind the strong cold front that is currently moving eastward across Florida. Gale force winds are forecast to continue today with seas building over 20 feet. For additional information on this warning, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W and extends to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00S29W to the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 80 to 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 08W-12W. Scattered showers are within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ W of 20W.


A strong cold front extends from Marco Island Florida to the W coast of Cuba and across the Yucatan Channel. The front will continue to move SE today and exit the basin this afternoon and enter the western Caribbean today. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over South Florida and into the Straits of Florida, moving southeast ahead of the front. No significant convection is noted over the Gulf as a surge of drier air enters the basin.

As the strong cold front exits the basin today, strong winds and high seas across most of the Gulf will slowly subside through tonight. Surface ridging southward over the Gulf will shift E and allow strong SE to S return flow to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico by Tue morning. The strong return flow will expand to the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue night. Another strong cold front could enter the NW Gulf of Mexico by Wed morning and introduce another round of gales to the Mexican coast.


A strong cold front enters the western Caribbean from the western Cuba near 21N84W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87W. A surface trough extends from 21N84W to 15N88W ahead of the strong cold front. Radar imagery shows no significant convection with the tail end of the front south from western Cuba into the Yucatan. Typical patches of low clouds and isolated showers exist in a few spots. Scattered showers are present near western Cuba and near Isla de la Juventud associated to the proximity of the front. The trade winds are strongest over the central Caribbean. Quiet weather prevails across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the S central Caribbean through Wed night and increase to at or near gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia each night through Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front is moving SE into the NW Caribbean this morning, and will extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The front will weaken but still extend from SE Cuba to the NW and N central coast of Honduras on Mon night, and then start to weaken and drift N from Cuba westward from Tue morning until Tue night. Strong high pres building over the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the basin Tue through Thu resulting in strong winds across almost all of the eastern and central Caribbean.


A strong cold front in the western Atlantic enters our area near 31N79W and extends south into NE Florida coast. Latest scatterometer data indicates Gale force winds ahead and behind the strong cold front north of 28N W of 73W. Pre-frontal scattered moderate convection extends from NW Cuba near 23N77W along the Straits of Florida and into the western Atlantic ahead of the front. Further east, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 29N60W to 23N59W. No significant convection is noted near the trough. A second surface trough extends from 30N46W to 21N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-34N between 43W- 50W. A 1035 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N28W. Refer to the section above for more details on the gale.

A strong cold front moving off the NE Florida coast will then reach from 31N72W to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W tonight, from 30N65W to 26N70W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday morning, from 27N65W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Monday night. The front will begin weakening and become stationary on Tuesday afternoon from 23N65W to near the Windward Passage. Minimal gale force winds will prevail on either side of the front N of 28N and W of 65W from this morning through Monday morning. Peak seas will build to near 20 feet in NW swell behind the front on Tues. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure builds to the N of the front. These winds will persist through Wed night as the strong high slowly shifts E over the western Atlc near 35N. The next cold front should push E from Florida on Thu.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MTorres