320
AXNT20 KNHC 300323
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Apr 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and
continues south-southwestward to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from
03N15W to 01S46W. Numerous scattered moderate convection is
depicted from 04N to 06N between 16W and 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Weak 1013 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf
near 26N85W. The typical evening trough is over the western coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted
over the northern Yucatan Peninsula, moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft
are over the western Gulf, and gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas over
the western Gulf near the high pressure. Areas of smoke due to
agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting
visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the
coast in the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generally
maintain gentle to moderate southeast to south winds across the
basin, except for light to gentle variable winds over the NE Gulf
through Fri. Moderate seas will be over the western Gulf while
mostly slight seas will be elsewhere through Fri. A diurnal trough
will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during
the evenings and at night through Fri. A strong late-season cold
front will emerge off the Texas coast Fri night. The front will
reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Sat,
then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before
stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds
reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat, lasting
to into Sat night offshore Veracruz. Seas are forecast to build to
around 12 ft, but possibly higher over waters affected by the
gale conditions before subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to
precede the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia
and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere across the basin
along seas of 2 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh
trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon,
reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through
Sat night and diminishing on Sun and Mon. A weakening cold front
will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1015 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic off
the northern Bahamas near 27N72W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds
and 3-5 ft seas are noted off northeast Florida, with gentle
breezes and 5-7 ft in N swell elsewhere west of 65W. Farther east,
a cold front extends from 31N45W to 24N60W. Fresh to strong NW
winds and 6-9 ft follow the front north of 27N and as far east as
65W. Fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft are active within 300 nm
east of the front north of 24N. 1017 mb high pressure is centered
near 25N35W, following another cold front reaching from an
occluded low pressure near the Azores, to 30N20W to 20N29W. Gentle
breezes and 5-7 ft in N swell are evident elsewhere north of 20N.
Moderate NE trade winds and 4-6 ft are ongoing across the tropical
Atlantic south of 20N.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift E of 55W
north of 24N Thu morning while the portion of the front S of 24N
remains stationary to near 22N69W, gradually weakening through
Fri. Another cold front will move offshore northeast Florida on
Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the
area through Fri afternoon before it shifts E of 55W Sat evening.
A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on
Sat, and reach from near 31N74W to near Vero Beach, Florida early
on Sun and stall into Sun night and Mon. Low pressure is expected
to move along the front at that time.
$$
Christensen
