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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

The forecast for today consists of near gale-force to gale-force SW to W winds, and rough to very seas, from 29N to 31N between 67W and 74W. The gale-force winds are supposed to start to slow down, to less than gale-force during this afternoon. Expect elsewhere: strong to near gale-force W winds, and rough to very rough seas, today, from 28N to 31N between 67W and 77W. Expect for the remainder of the area, today: from 26N to 31N between 64W and 80W, including in the Atlantic Ocean exposures, strong to near gale-force W winds, and rough seas.

Expect from later this afternoon until Sunday morning: strong to near gale-force W winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 28N to 31N between 64W and 74W.

A cold front passes through 31N72W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond south Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the north of the line that passes through 31N62W, to the northern coast of Cuba that is along 80W.

All marine interests who are in the areas must be cautious and plan accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is to the south of the Equator. Precipitation: widely scattered/scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is from 06N southward between 45W and 55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is mainly from 05N southward from 45W eastward.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the NW Bahamas, to Florida just to the north of the Florida Keys, to the south central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. The front has been marked by a thin cloud line in the Gulf. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N southward from 88W eastward, and from 25N southward from 93W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico to the north of the cold front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is in Texas near 30N98W. Moderate seas cover much of the area. The comparatively highest moderate values are in the east central Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas are off the middle Texas Gulf coast, and from 21N southward in the SW corner of the area. Mostly fresh northerly winds are in the central two-thirds of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area.

Slight seas are everywhere. Broad moderate or slower anticyclonic winds cover the entire area. Some exceptions are for: fresh N to NE winds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and in some parts of the Straits of Florida.

This morning, a cold front extends from South Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and moderate seas follow the front. This front will move SE of the basin by this evening, with high pressure building in its wake, through early next week. Fresh southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf Sun night through Mon night, then expand into eastern portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf late Wed evening.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate seas are from Jamaica eastward. The comparatively highest moderate values are between SW Haiti and the coast of Colombia. Slight seas are from Jamaica westward. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from 16N southward between 70W and 78W. Mostly fresh to some strong E to SE winds are from 16N northward between 70W and 76W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the central one-third of the area. Moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 24/1200 UTC, are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue across the Caribbean waters within 90 nm of Colombia into early next week, strongest at night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late this afternoon, and reach from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan coast near 19N87.5W Sun morning, then sink SE and dissipate from Haiti to E of the Gulf of Honduras Mon. High pressure will strengthen across the western Atlantic Sun night into Wed night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale-Force Wind Warning, for parts of the Atlantic Ocean that are to the east of NE Florida, for today.

A stationary front passes through 31N49W, to 26N52W. A surface trough continues from 26N52W, to 21N60W and 20N65W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the front/trough boundary. Other clouds and possible rainshowers are between the front/trough and the 31N72W-south Florida cold front.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 12N northward from the front/trough boundary eastward. A 1035 mb high pressure center is near 35N27W.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 06N northward from 40W eastward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered/ scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 10N northward between Africa and 35W.

Strong to near gale-force northerly winds are from 27N northward from 14W eastward, to the NE of the Canary Islands. Strong NE winds are from 13N to 21N between 24W and 29W. Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from 11N northward from 32W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 02N to 27N between 30W and 50W. Fresh easterly winds are from 20N southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough to very rough seas are from 28N northward from 16W eastward. Rough seas are from 10N northward from 40W eastward. Mostly moderate seas, with some moderate to rough, are between 40W and 50W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Gale-force SW winds are occurring N of 29N and within 120 nm E of a cold front extending from 31N72W through South Florida. SW gales will persist ahead of the front across the waters N of 29N and W of 67W through this afternoon, as the front shifts E-SE. Rough to very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N Sun. The front will reach from 31N61W to far E Cuba Sun afternoon then gradually stall and weaken from 25N55W to Dominican Republic Tue. Farther E, a trough extends from 23N55W to 16N60W, and will drift westward across the Leeward Islands during the weekend.

$$ mt/sk

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