AXNT20 KNHC 171124

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N- 07N between 08W-19W. Elsewhere, a band of scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 06N-10N between 22W-39W.


A 1024 mb high is centered over SE Louisiana near 30N90W. Scattered to broken low level stratocumulus clouds are over most of the Gulf of Mexico S of 28N. The far N Gulf has mostly fair weather. 10-15 kt NE to E winds are noted over the Gulf. Some cold air advection remains over the Gulf but it has already begun to moderate. Overnight radiational cooling is also a factor over the N Gulf States.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf.

Expect surface ridging to prevail over the Gulf waters through Mon. The next cold front to reach the NW Gulf on Sun night and be rather weak. It will then persist through Tue.


The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over the NW Caribbean from central Cuba at 22N77W to 18N84W. A surface trough is also over the Gulf of Honduras from 16N87W to 16N83W. 20 kt N winds are noted W of front. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 82W-87W.

In the SW Caribbean, scattered showers are noted south of 10N due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

In the upper levels, an upper level jetstream extends from the Gulf of Honduras to central Cuba, basically over the surface front.

Expect the surface front to retreat back while gradually dissipating on Sun. Trade winds will increase across the eastern and central Caribbean today. Marine guidance indicates fresh to strong winds and building seas to 10 ft near the coast of Colombia. These marine conditions will persist through Tue morning.


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N65W to central Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of the front. 15-20 kt N winds are W of front. A 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 33N44W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N17W to 25N30W, dissipating to 24N40W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.

Expect the W Atlantic front to stall this morning from 32N64W to the southern Bahamas. The front will then gradually dissipate through Sun night. A trough along 74W will drift westward over the weekend. Little change is expected elsewhere through Mon night.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa