000
AXNT20 KNHC 020505
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0455 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale Warning E of 35W: The tight pressure gradient between a
complex low pressure system in the NE Atlantic and a 1025 mb high
pressure over Libya result in fresh to near gale-force winds
between the Moroccan coast and Madeira. Winds are forecast to
strengthen to gale speeds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zone
starting at 02/12Z. Rough seas are currently affecting the waters
off Morocco and rough seas are expected to develop with the gale-
force winds. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale around
02/21Z. However, strong to near gale-force winds and rough to very
rough seas will continue affecting the waters off Morocco and the
Canary Islands through Sat.
For more details, refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N21W to 04N35W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 09N and east of 42W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High-level cloudiness is found in the NW Gulf associated with a
broad upper level low over the central United States. Generally
dry conditions dominate the basin. The pressure gradient between
the ridge over the central Gulf and the aforementioned low
pressure system supports moderate to locally fresh southerly flow
over the western Gulf waters. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will
occur over the basin through Fri morning as high pressure
prevails over the central Gulf. Fresh SW to W winds and moderate
seas will develop over the northern Gulf on Fri as a warm front,
associated with a low pressure system moving through the southern
U.S., lifts northward. A cold front trailing the low is slated to
enter the northern Gulf on Sat, leading to moderate N winds behind
the front. High pressure will build over the basin in the wake of
the front Sun into next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A remnant frontal boundary extends across Hispaniola and into the
central Caribbean, supporting scattered showers across the area.
High pressure north of the basin supports fresh to locally strong
NE-E winds and moderate seas in the central and SE Caribbean. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally
strong northerly winds in the SW and part of the NW Caribbean,
including the lee of Cuba. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas
will prevail over the central and western Caribbean, including
through the Windward Passage, through Fri as high pressure
builds over the Gulf of America. Locally strong N winds offshore
Nicaragua will diminish to fresh speeds tonight and then prevail
through Fri evening. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade
winds are expected in the south-central basin through Sat as low
pressure anchors over northern Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are then expected over much of the Caribbean Sun
into early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warning for the Agadir region.
A weakening cold front extends from 31N55W to 22N66W, followed by
a frontal trough to Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted within
200 nm to the east of these boundaries. The rest of the SW North
Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of
6-10 ft are found north of 26N and west of 47W. In the far NE
Atlantic, fresh to strong westerly winds and rough seas are
occurring north of 20N and east of 40W. Meanwhile, moderate to
fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present south of 20N
and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N55W
to 22N66W will progress eastward and exit the area Fri night.
Fresh westerlies W of the front and N of 29N will diminish to
moderate speeds Fri morning while rough seas within these winds
will subside through Sat morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
SW winds and rough seas are expected to develop offshore of
northern and central Florida on Sat, ahead of a cold front
forecast to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic Sat night. Fresh
N winds and locally rough seas are forecast behind the front,
expanding southeastward into early next week.
$$
Delgado
