000
AXNT20 KNHC 301710
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Apr 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough exits the W coast of Africa near 10.5N14.5W
and extends to 09N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02N13W to 03N22W to
01N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S46W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted S of 01.5N between 09N and
22W, and S of 03.5N between 23W and 35W. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted S of 01.5N between 36W and
50W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Weak western Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge westward
across south Florida and into the eastern Gulf, where a 1014 mb
high pressure center is analyzed near 26N82W. The nocturnal Yucatan
Peninsula trough has shifted northwestward overnight to the west
central Gulf centered at 24N93W. A weak cold front has moved from
southern Georgia, across the Florida Panhandle and then extends
westward across the nearshore coastal waters of NW Florida and
Alabama and across south Louisiana along about 20N. Moderate to
locally fresh east-southeast to southeast winds prevail across
much of the southwestern Gulf S of 26N, about the Yucatan
Peninsulatrough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across these waters. Light
to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the remainder of the
basin, with seas less than 3 ft across the E Gulf east of 89W, and
2 to 4 ft across the NW gulf. A few weak showers are along the
front across the Florida Panhandle waters. Areas of smoke due to
agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting
visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the
west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will maintain generally
gentle to moderate southeast to south winds across the basin,
except for light to gentle variable winds over the NE Gulf, as the
weak front drags across that area through Fri. Moderate seas will
continue over the western Gulf while mostly slight seas are
expected elsewhere through Fri. A diurnal trough will pulse fresh
to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings and
at night through Fri. A strong late-season cold front will emerge
off the Texas coast Fri night. The front will reach from northern
Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Sat, then from central
Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the
southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to
strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force
offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat, and on Sat night near
Veracruz. Seas are forecast to build to around 13 ft in the area
of strongest winds through the weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to precede the
front. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between 1015 mb high pressure over the
western Atlantic E of the Bahamas and relatively lower pressure
in northern South America is sustaining fresh to locally strong
trades off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, as recently
depicted in satellite scatterometer data. Seas are about 6 to 8
ft in this area. Gentle to moderate easterly trade winds prevail
elsewhere across the basin, except locally fresh in the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail there per the latest
buoy and satellite altimeter data. Scattered light to moderate
showers are seen offshore of NW Venezuela. Scattered to locally
numerous moderate to strong convection has developed in recent
hours across the waters S of 21N from NW Colombia to northern Cost
Rica, supported by a mid to upper-level trough persisting across
the NW Caribbean.
For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will remain N of the
Caribbean basin through the weekend to support moderate to fresh
trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon,
reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night and diminishing on Sun and Mon. A weakening cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1015 mb high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic east
of the northern Bahamas near 26.5N71W. To the east, a cold front
extends through 31N42W to 28N44W to 23N56W, then become a weakening
frontal trough to N of Hispaniola near 20.5N72W. Moderate southwest
to west winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft seas are off northeast
Florida to near 73W, with gentle breezes and 4-7 ft in N swell
elsewhere west of 62W. Mostly fresh west to northwest winds are
north of the front N of 26N and as far west as 63W. Seas are
about 7 to 10 ft in northwest swell with these winds. Fresh to
strong S to SW winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in N swell prevail
north of 25N and E of the front to 38W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms remain active within 300 nm east of the front north
of 26N. Further east, 1018 mb high pressure is centered near
27N28W, with a stationary front to its east, reaching N to S
along about 20W-21W. Gentle breezes and seas of 5 to 8 ft in N
swell are present elsewhere north of 20N, and while moderate
trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are ongoing across the tropical
Atlantic south of about 20N.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front will
shift E of 55W today. The next cold front will move offshore
northeast Florida today, then weaken as it moves across the waters
N and NE of the Bahamas through Fri night to E of 55W Sat. A
third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat
afternoon, reach from near 31N68W to east- central Florida on Sun,
then stall through Mon. Low pressure is expected to move along
the front at that time. Fresh to strong southwest winds will
precede the front Sat and Sat night. Fresh northeast to east winds
will follow the front through Mon.
$$
Stripling
