000
AXNT20 KNHC 011724
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Feb 1 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Storm Warning: A strong arctic cold front extends from
the low pressure to 31N67W to east Cuba. To the E, another cold
front is analyzed from 31N62W to 20N72W. Storm force NW winds are
expected W of the first front, mainly N of 28N and E of 74W,
while gale force NW winds prevail N of 25N between and W of 66W.
Another area of gale force SW winds is E of the fronts mainly N of
29N between 57W-62W. Very rough to high seas will prevail in
these areas, expected to peak to 29 ft tonight along 30N. Rough
seas prevail across most of the basin N of 22N. The storm force
winds will diminish tonight by 02/00Z, while the gale force winds
will follow the fronts and diminish by 02/12Z. Seas across the
forecast domain will slowly subside starting at midweek as high
pressure in the wake of the fronts shift eastward near 29N.
Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including
outside of the storm and gale condition affected zones, due to
the expansive area of strong to near gale force winds and
associated rough seas. Please keep up with the latest forecasts.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W then continues
to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure building
across the area and the cold front that is now well southeast of
the Gulf is supporting fresh to strong NW winds across the eastern
half of the basin, while moderate to fresh winds prevail W of 90W.
Rough to very rough seas prevail across the basin, with highest
values E of 89W.
For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish from NW to SE
across the Gulf through tonight as the high pressure begins to
shift eastward across the northern Gulf. Another cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern Gulf Wed, reach from the
Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf by Wed afternoon, and from
southwest Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Thu
afternoon, then move southeast of the Gulf by early Thu evening.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected
behind this next frontal system.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A strong arctic cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 15N84W
and to along the southern coast of Honduras. To the E, another
front is analyzed from 20N73W to 12N83W. Strong to near gale-
force NW winds and rough seas are found behind these boundaries. A
surface trough extends from eastern eastern Hispaniola to north
Colombia. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are
evident between the trough mainly S of 13N. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern
Caribbean E of the trough.
For the forecast, the two cold fronts will merge late this
afternoon, and then overtake the trough as it reaches from Puerto
Rico to northwestern Colombia by this evening. It will then begin
to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwestern Venezuela Mon
and Mon night. Strong to near-gale force north winds and rough
seas are expected behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong
NE to E winds will prevail roughly west of a line from the Virgin
Islands to northeastern Colombia to central Cuba along with seas
to near 12 ft. These winds and seas will likely diminish in
coverage on Wed and further on Thu as another cold front
approaches the northwestern Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for details on ongoing
Storm and Gale Warnings for sections of the western Atlantic.
Outside of the Storm/Gale Warnings areas, a cold front enters the
central Atlantic waters near 31N29W and continues southwestward
to 26N40W then becomes stationary to 27N50W. Moderate to fresh SW
winds and rough seas are found ahead of the front to 30W and
north of 29N. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of
a 1025 mb high center located near 28N28W. Moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds and rough seas are found south of a line
from Morocco to the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh southeast
winds and rough seas are also evident from 20N and 25N and between
50W and 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to
rough seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, please see the Special Features
section above.
$$
ERA
