000
AXNT20 KNHC 300620
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Mar 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western and Central Atlantic Large, Long-period Swell:
A strong cold front curves southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N56W to near 25N73W, then continues westward as
a stationary front to beyond the central Bahamas. Large, long-
period northerly swell is generating 12 to 16 ft seas across the
western Atlantic up to 285 nm northwest of the cold front. These
very rough seas are going peak at 12 to 18 ft while shifting
southeastward following the cold front, reaching from 31N45W to
near the Turks and Caicos Islands late Monday night and early
Tuesday morning. Afterward, a weakening cold front along with
declining northerly swells should allow both winds and seas to
gradually subside through Wed, possible dropping below 12 ft on
Thu.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
following websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
East Atlantic Gale Warning:
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the marine zone of
Agadir near the coast of Morocco through 30/18 UTC. Please refer
to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on the website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then reaches southwestward to near 09N19W.
Farther south, an ITCZ extends southwestward from 02N15W across
00N28W to near Fortaleza, Brazil. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough
and near the ITCZ from 00N to 04N between 10W and 30W. Scattered
moderate to strong convective is present up to 180 nm along
either side of the rest of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weakening stationary front extends westward from just east of
the central Bahamas across the Great Bahama Bank to the Florida
Straits near 24N86W. Patchy showers are occurring up to 120 nm
north of the front. A surface trough is causing widely scattered
showers south of New Orleans. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the eastern
Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NE to SE
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the western Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, the stationary front should dissipate late
tonight into early Mon morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds, and
moderate seas over the eastern Gulf through Fri night. Over the
western Gulf, moderate to locally fresh SE winds are forecast.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers in the Gulf of
Honduras, and isolated thunderstorms near southern Haiti. Tight
pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge along 24N and a 1009
mb Colombian Low is supporting fresh to strong NE trades along
with 5 to 7 ft seas in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage and
near Hispaniola. Strong to near-gale NE winds and seas of 6 to 8
ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the eastern basin. Moderate
to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the
rest of the basin.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will linger
offshore Colombia through midweek, pulsing to near gale force at
night. Fresh winds will then pulse to strong at night through Fri
night. This pressure gradient will also support fresh to strong NE
winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of
Hispaniola through Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning about
Large Swell and Very Rough Seas.
A strong cold front curves southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N56W to near 25N73W, then continues westward as
a stationary front to beyond the central Bahamas. Scattered
showers are occurring near and up to 100 nm northwest of this
boundary. To the east, a surface trough runs southward from 30N53W
through a 1016 mb low near 28N55W to 19N58W. Scattered showers are
found north of 22N between 45W and 55W.
Besides the very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features
section, fresh to near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft
are seen behind the cold/stationary front. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are seen from 20N to the
cold/stationary front and west of 57W. For the rest of the
Atlantic north of 00N between 35W and 57N/cold front, gentle to
moderate NE to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will
stall across the central Bahamas. The front will reach from
31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over the
southeastern waters on Tue. Strong to near-gale force N to NE
winds, and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front.
Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, which
will support the continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds,
and rough to very rough seas across most of the offshore forecast
waters through the end of the week.
$$
Chan
