AXNT20 KNHC 152320

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through southern coastal Liberia, Africa near 05N09W and extends to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from point to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered showers are occurring south of 05S between 18W and 32W. A surface trough is N of the ITCZ extending from 08N20W to 03N21W with scattered showers.


A weak surface ridge continues to dominate the gulf waters. Latest scatterometer and surface data depict a light to gentle southerly wind flow across the eastern half of the basin, while moderate southerly winds prevail over the wester half of the Gulf.

The surface ridge will prevail across the basin through the weekend, maintaining moderate southeasterly return flow over the western Gulf. The next cold front will reach the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by early Monday as broad pressure forms off Veracruz in the southwest Gulf. The front will stall across the northern Gulf waters through Tuesday morning.


A mid to upper-level trough extends from the west Atlantic to a base over the western Caribbean. This trough continues to support a surface trough that extends from the Cayman Islands to the coast of SE Nicaragua. Diffluent flow to the east of the upper- level trough supports scattered showers across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The surface trough will dissipate this evening. Moderate to fresh winds are over the central and eastern Caribbean and will continue through Saturday night. However, winds will increase in the southern Caribbean by early Sun due to the high pressure building north of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras Sunday night through Tuesday night, with gale conditions possible off Colombia on Sunday night and Monday night.


A mid to upper-level trough over the west Atlantic supports a frontal system across this area, analyzed as a stationary front from 31N65W to a 1011 mb low near 29N72W. A surface trough extends from the low to 23N78W. Low-level moisture inflow from the Caribbean into this system supports scattered showers north of 20N between 60W-72W. The remainder central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb surface high centered near 31N35W.

Expect for the frontal system to slowly push northeast of the area through Saturday. A new cold front will move across the waters north of 29N by early Sunday, pushing east of 65W by early Monday. Another cold front will move across the waters by Monday afternoon, pushing east of 65W by early Tuesday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine