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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281123
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
623 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ axis continues from 05N18W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 07W and 18W, and south of the ITCZ from 03S- 00N between 29W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 26N83W with a trailing cold front extending SW through 23N86W, and weakens to 21N90W. A warm front extending eastward near the FL coast. Scattered showers are occurring in the vicinity of the front and the low pressure centered. Elsewhere, ridge builds across the central and western Gulf with benign weather. ASCAT data indicates light to moderate northeast winds in the region. A surface trough extends westward from the low pressure to 27N87W. No significant convection is observed near the trough axis.

Low pressure of 1012 mb over the eastern Gulf will track east- southeast, reaching S Florida this morning while the front sags S and slowly dissipates. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight and weaken y the time it reaches the southeastern Gulf Wed night ahead of a third cold front, that is forecast to move across the Gulf waters Thu night through Sat night. This front is expected to be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Light showers are streaming across the southwestern Caribbean from 12N-17N between 74W-83W. A surface trough was analyzed from 16N65W to the central Atlantic. This is producing scattered showers over the U.S. Virgin Islands. Scattered showers are also present over Cuba and Hispaniola. Elsewhere across the basin, no significant surface features were noted with only the occasional area of isolated showers. Latest ASCAT data indicates light easterly winds across the basin.

Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. Winds will begin to increase across the south-central Caribbean Thu night through Sat night, with strong to near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia at that time. Winds may possibly reach minimal gale force strength on Fri and Sat night near the coast of NW Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A developing cold front has entered the forecast area in the western Atlantic with a surface trough 80 nm ahead of the front. Further east, a trough extends from 28N80W to 29N75W. A weak cold front extends from near 31N58W to 25N69W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are present ahead of the trough from 20N-31N between 69W-72W. Along the weakening front scattered showers are still lingering along the boundary north of 25N to 31N and west between 48W-62W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds were noted over the offshore waters along with fairly low seas.

Over the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 30N34W to 23N49W, and a second trough from 23N53W to 16N65W near the U.S. Virgin Islands, with scattered showers and thunderstorms along the trough.

The front will reach from near 31N70W to southeastern Florida this morning, and from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas by tonight. A low pressure system will move across northern Florida Wed, emerge off the coast Wed night, then track east across the area through Thu night. High pressure ridging will build across the area in the wake of this system Fri and Fri night. Another low pressure system is forecast to track northeastward along southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coast from Fri through Sat night. The trailing cold front will sweep across the western and central forecast waters with fresh to strong winds east and west of it. Winds may reach near gale force north 30N and east of 70W on Sat and Sat night.

$$ MMTorres

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