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000
AXNT20 KNHC 242209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa with axis near 16W from 15N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 10N between 13W and 21W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W and from 16N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 30W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W from 11N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 44W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W from 15N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 54W and 60W.

The axis of a tropical wave axis is near 77W from 10N southward, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 76W and 80W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 06N25W to 05N40W. The ITCZ continues from 05N40W to 05N45W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from 00N to 06N between 21W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 40W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the western Gulf and 1-2 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will prevail through early next week. A diurnally induced trough will bring fresh to locally strong E to SE winds NW of the Yucatan peninsula tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the basin through the weekend. By Mon, fresh to strong easterly winds will return to the south-central Caribbean and to the Gulf of Honduras by Tue. A tropical wave is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean on Fri into Sat. This will enhance convection in this area through Sat and shift to the central Caribbean by Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the waters off the coast of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm east of this trough. A second surface trough is analyzed from 30N55W to 24N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the trough axis. Light to gentle winds are noted over the waters off Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across much of the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range off the coast of northern Florida and 1-3 ft elsewhere west of 75W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary across north Florida and off the U.S. eastern seaboard is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the western Atlantic mainly west of 75W. By Fri night, the front will dissipate and quiescent conditions are expected during the weekend. A surface trough is forecast to move northwest Fri through Sun, staying north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles.

$$ AL

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