AXNT20 KNHC 211118

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building southward over the western Atlantic and lower pressures inland over Colombia will result in winds increasing to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night. The gale is presently ongoing and will end on 21/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front is forecast in 48 hours over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 29N65W. A gale is forecast N of 27N E of 40W with seas 16 to 21 ft.


The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 07N12W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from this point to 02S30W to the coast of South America near 04S38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 05N between 06W and 28W.


A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N91W to 27N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W. Northerly winds of 10 to 20 kt and scattered showers are occurring behind the front. Mainly 10 to 20 kt southeasterly winds cover the remainder of the Gulf. Overcast low stratus and patchy fog is W of the front, as well as N of 29N E of front.

The front will lift back north as a warm front today. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast late Sat, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by Sun evening and from near SW Florida to near 25N89W to the SW Gulf Mon.


Generally fair weather prevails across the Caribbean region supported by widespread dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds and perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the Caribbean.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in mainly the central Caribbean Sea, and north of Honduras through the next several days. Gale force winds will pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia. Long period north to northeast swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles beginning late today before dissipating Sun through Mon night.


The most notable feature over the subtropical Atlantic is a cold front that enters the discussion area near 31N27W and extends to 21N50W to 21N60W to 23N68W. A dissipating stationary front continues to 30N73W. A line of clouds and likely embedded showers accompany the frontal boundary. Scatterometer data shows a fairly large region of 20-25 kt winds north of the boundary to 32N, with stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditions are quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic supported by surface high pressure centered north of the region, and dry air aloft.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge will extend along 28N today as high pressure currently over Bermuda shifts southward. The center of the high pressure will shift E and weaken Fri to between Bermuda and the northern Bahamas, ahead of a cold front moving into the central Atlantic. The western end of the front will stall and dissipate from 25N65W to 31N70W through Sat. Another front will move off the NE Florida coast Sun night, before stalling and weakening along 27N through Mon.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa