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000
AXNT20 KNHC 092358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front from the central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche will continue to shift SE across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Expect over the Bay of Campeche NW to N winds 25 to 35 knots with seas around 10 to 13 feet within area bounded by 20N95W to 19N95W to 19N96W to 20N97W to 20N96W to 20N95W. The gale is forecast to end on 10/0000 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front off the coast of N Florida to central Florida will move further E into the Atlantic. A gale warning is in effect N of 29 N ahead of the front. Expect SE S to SW gale force winds 30 to 35 knots, and seas 8 to 10 feet within area bounded by 31N73W to 30N75W to 30N76W to 29N78W to 31N78W to 31N73W. The gale is forecast to end on 10/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 00N-03N between 00W- 10W. Widely scattered moderate convection is N of the ITCZ from 03N- 06N between 24W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 09/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W to near Venice Florida near 27N82W to the N Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W to the SE Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. Radar and satellite imagery shows scattered showers within 120 nm E of the front. A gale is over the Bay of Campeche. See above. The remainder of the Gulf W of front has 20-30 kt northerly winds. Broken to overcast low level stratocumulus clouds are also W of front.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Gulf with axis along 90W. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough over the NW Atlantic enhancing convection.

Expect the cold front to continue to shift SE across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will prevail W of the front through tonight, with gale force winds expected over the SW gulf the next few hours. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu, quickly reaching the eastern Gulf late Thu night, pushing SE of the Basin Fri night. Strong to near gale force winds will follow that next front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean W of the Cayman Islands, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean with axis along 70W. Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central Caribbean through Fri night, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel tonight, reaching from near the Windward Passage to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where it will stall and dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will prevail behind the front Mon afternoon through early Wed. Another cold front may enter the NW Caribbean by Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 09/2100 UTC, a cold front extends over the NW Atlantic from 32N78W to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N between 68W-79W. Further E, a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N43W to 27N50W to 26N59W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N33W to 24N28W.

Of note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NW Atlantic N of 26N between 64W-79W enhancing convection. Elsewhere, an upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 25N between 15W-35W producing scattered showers to include the Canary Islands.

Expect the cold front off the coast of northern Florida to move E. A gale warning is in effect N of 29N ahead of the front in the southerly flow through Mon. Another low pres system may develop off the Carolinas Mon night, potentially significantly impacting the waters N of 25N through the middle of the week, with conditions then improving Thu through Fri. Another strong cold front may impact the NW portion by Fri night.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa

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