AXNT20 KNHC 191119

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic will build westward across the Caribbean during the next day or so, which will tighten the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures inland over Colombia. This will result in gale-force winds pulsing each night along the Coast of Colombia and portions of the southwestern Caribbean through mid-week. A gale is presently on going and is forecast to end shortly on 19/1200 UTC. Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through W Africa near 07N11W and extends to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S30W to the coast of South America near 03S42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the monsoon trough from 06N- 04S between 05W-26W. Similar convection is along the ITCZ from 01N-03S between 36W-50W.


As of 19/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from Melbourne Florida to Sarasota Florida to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W to the NW Gulf near 26N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N91W. Overcast low stratus and fog are noted northwest of front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds north of the fronts, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail across the remainder of the basin.

The front will lift north as a warm front today, ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast late tonight. The cold front will stall from southeast Louisiana to Tampico Mexico Wed night into early Thu, before lifting north again as a warm front through Fri. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the Texas coast by late Sat.


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail over much of the basin. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and S of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico moving quickly west with the tradewinds. Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere continues to dominate the region.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sat. NE to E swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the Windward and Leeward Islands late in the week.


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to 30N74W. A stationary front continues to Melbourne Florida near 28N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high over the W Atlantic near 27N67W, and a 1025 mb high over the E Atlantic near 34N21W. This pattern maintains gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic, and moderate to fresh winds over the central and eastern Atlantic.

Over the W Atlantic, the front will stall along 27N today. The portion of the front W of 75W will lift N of the area as a warm front through early Wed, while the portion east of 75W dissipates and high pressure builds near Bermuda. The high pressure will shift SW to halfway between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda through Sat as a strong frontal boundary moves though the central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa