AXNT20 KNHC 202315

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 PM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N12W. The ITCZ extends from 05N12W to 05N20W to 03N30W to 04N45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is off the coast of W Africa from 01N-07N between 09W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 31W-35W.


As of 20/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from N Florida near 30N84W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W to the NW Gulf near 25N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 15-25 kt N winds are W of the front. A prefrontal trough extends from central Florida to the SE Gulf near 25N86W. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted over the Gulf.

Expect the front over the eastern gulf to continue to shift southward the next couple of days while the western portion becomes stationary. The front will stall from S Florida to the NW Gulf near 26N95W to near the Bay of Campeche by Thu Night, and dissipate by Fri. A second cold front will shift across the northern waters late Fri through the weekend.


10-20 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea. An area of scattered showers are N of the ABC Islands near 14N70W. The SW Caribbean has scattered showers S of 11N to include Costa Rica and Panama. The remainder of the Caribbean has mostly fair weather. In the upper levels a large upper level high is centered over the central Caribbean near 13N78W, that dominates the entire Caribbean.

Expect fresh to strong winds to continue along the coast of Colombia through Thu. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed afternoon.


A weak stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N71W to central Florida near 28N80W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N67W to the central Bahamas near 24N76W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front and trough. A 1021 high is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N48W. A cold front dips into the E Atlantic from 31N14W to 29N29W to 25N37W. A stationary front continues to 31N45W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front E of 30W.

Expect over the W Atlantic for a cold front to move from the Gulf of Mexico to the W Atlantic Wed through Fri night, then become stationary Sat. High pres will build in the wake of the front.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa