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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...Gale Warning in the western Atlantic...

Gale force winds continue along a cold front over the W Atlantic. At 21/0300 UTC, the front extends from 31N70W to E Cuba near 22N78W. Gale force winds will continue on both sides of the front N of 28N until 21/0600 UTC. Seas of 14-16 ft are forecast. For additional information on this warning, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the south-central Caribbean through Wednesday night and increase to at or near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. For additional information, please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and extends to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 10W-20W, and from 04S-05N between 22W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broken to overcast layer of low-level stratocumulus clouds prevails over much of the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf, due to with a cold airmass over warm waters. Strong high pressure has moved in behind the recent cold front.

Fresh to strong winds and high seas over the southeastern Gulf south of 27N will subside through early Mon. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front covers the entire basin. The high pressure will shift eastward in as low pressure deepens over the southern Plains allowing for strong southeast to south return flow to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico by Tue morning. The strong return flow will expand to the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tue night. Another strong cold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf of Mexico Wed morning, with the possibility of gale force northerly winds behind it over the far western Gulf and near the coast of Mexico. This front will reach from near the NE Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula early Thu and weaken as it exits the SE Gulf Thu night followed by fresh to strong northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 21/0300 UTC, a strong cold front extends from E Cuba near 22N78W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N87W. A prefrontal surface trough is from 18N79W to 14N83W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the cold front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds cover the NW Caribbean behind the front to the Yucatan Channel along with seas to 8 ft. Farther east, no significant convection is present. However, trade winds are fresh to strong across a large area of the south central Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean through Wed night and increase to at or near gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia each night through Wed night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front is moving SE into the NW Caribbean this morning, and will extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The front will weaken but still extend from southeastern Cuba to the northwest and north central coast of Honduras on Mon night, and begin to weaken and drift north from Cuba westward from Tue morning until Tue night. Strong high pres building over the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient over the basin Tue through Fri resulting in strong trades across most of the eastern and central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 21/0300 UTC, a strong cold front in the western Atlantic extends from 31N70W to E Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm E of the front N of 26N. A broken to overcast low-level stratocumulus clouds prevails over the W Atlantic W of front to Florida. Gale force winds are present for a few more hours. See above. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 31N48W to 22N51W. A 1035 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N31W.

Over the W Atlantic, the cold front will reach from near 30N65W to 26N70W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Mon morning, from 27N65W to the coast of Cuba near 21N77W on Mon night. The front will begin to weaken and become stationary Tue afternoon from near 23N65W to near the Windward Passage. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure builds north of the front. These winds will persist through Wed night as the strong high slowly shifts eastward over the western Atlc north of the area. The next cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast on Thu afternoon, reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba Fri afternoon, and from near 31N69W to the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba Fri night followed by strong northwest to north winds and building seas.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa

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