008
AXNT20 KNHC 251727
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jul 25 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 22W,
from 17N southward moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted at this time.
An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W, from 18N
southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection
is noted at this time.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W, from 18N southward,
moving at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N
to 15N between 54W and 58W.
A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed near 76W, from 19N
southward moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
noted in the Caribbean at this time.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from Dakar, Senegal, to 09N43W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N43W to 09N55W. No significant convection is
noted at this time.
GULF OF AMERICA...
The latest surface observations indicate that the area of 1012 mb
low pressure is centered near 28.3N91.5W, with a trough extending
southwest from the low center. Cyclonic winds peak to fresh to
strong speeds near the low. Scattered moderate convection is 25N
to 29N between 91W and 97W. Elsewhere, the diurnal trough is
analyzed in the Bay of Campeche. The Gulf is dominated by gentle
to moderate SE winds and 3-5 ft seas.
For the forecast, the area of low pressure is moving west-
northwestward toward the Texas coast, and will moves inland
tonight. There is a low chance for tropical development.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are forecast
along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough
develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of
Campeche at night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The latest satellite scatterometer data indicates strong to near-
gale force trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to strong trades are noted across remaining
waters of the central Caribbean, with 8-11 ft seas. 5-7 ft seas,
and moderate to fresh trades, prevail in the eastern and western
Caribbean Sea and Windward Passage. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras,
from 15N to 21N west of 82W.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean into Sat. Fresh to strong northeast
winds in the Windward Passage are expected through Sat. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N50W to 27N60W to 31N68W.
Scattered moderate convection lingers across the frontal boundary.
Moderate to fresh winds are also near the front. Fresh NE winds
are noted in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere in the tropical and
subtropical Atlantic, the latest scatterometer depicts a quiet
basin, with gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas. 1022 mb
high is centered just northeast of the Bahamas.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the forecast region, supporting fresh to
strong winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the
Windward Passage through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
along with mostly moderate seas are expected.
$$
Mahoney
