059
AXNT20 KNHC 242333
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jul 25 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 11N to 14N
between 34W and 40W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned to near
52W, from 17N southward. Scattered showers are seen from 13N to
17N between 47W and 52W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65.5W from 18N
southward into central Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present from northeastern
Venezuela northward to the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends to
12N46W. The ITCZ extends from 11N51W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N to 13N between 37W and 49W, and
from 09N to 11N between 53W and 60W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough curves southwestward from a 1015 mb low just
east of New Orleans to 26N91W. Strong thunderstorms are occurring
across portions of the northwestern Gulf off the coast of
Louisiana. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough is leading to
scattered thunderstorms off the coast of western Florida and
through the Yucatan Channel. A 1018 mb high is dominating the
southwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of
1 to 3 ft are evident across the eastern Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, over the next day or so, the aforementioned
broad area of low pressure over the north-central Gulf may see
slow development while it moves generally westward to west-
northwestward across the northern Gulf. By this weekend, the
system is likely to move inland, ending its chances for
development. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally
heavy rainfall is possible for portions of the NE and north-
central Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
are forecast along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and
evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over
the Bay of Campeche at night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-level trough runs northwestward from near the ABC Islands
to the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring in the northwestern basin. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection
in the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between a Bermuda
High and a 1010 mb Colombian low is leading to fresh to strong
trades in the central basin along with 6 to 10 ft seas. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are evident across
the northwestern basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
exist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh ENE
to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds
over the central Caribbean through the Sat. Fresh to strong
northeast winds in the Windward Passage are expected through Sat.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough runs west-southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N52W to south of Bermuda near 28N62W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is present up to 250 NM along either
side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin. Moderate SW to W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate
north of 27N between 44W and 65W. Otherwise, the Subtropical
Ridge is maintaining light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas
north of 26N between 65W and Florida. For the tropical Atlantic
from 10N to 27N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles,
gentle with locally moderate SE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft dominate
this area. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring
off the northwestern coast of Africa, with strong winds occurring
downwind of the Canary Islands.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the forecast region. N of Hispaniola,
including the approaches to the Windward Passage, fresh to strong
winds and moderate seas are expected through Sat. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow along with mostly moderate
seas are expected.
$$
ADAMS
