000
AXNT20 KNHC 270610
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough runs westward from the Sierra Leone Coast just
south of Freetown to near 07N55W, then continues as an ITCZ from
07N55W to 07N30W to 06N48W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present near these features from 03N to
10N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 44W.
Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East
Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near
Costa Rica and western Panama.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle near
Saint Joseph Bay to southwest of New Orleans at 27N93W, then
continues as a stationary front to beyond the southern tip of
Texas. Patchy showers are occurring up to 40 nm along either side
of this boundary. A surface trough is causing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection across the west-central Gulf, and
at the southern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident near and beyond north of the
front. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present
at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds
and seas of 2 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast and is
expected to extend from near Tampa, Florida to Tampico, Mexico
Thu morning, from the Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico
Thu night, Then exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead
of the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the
wake of the cold front, with conditions improving Fri night
through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the
northwestern Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold
front will emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and meander
slowly southeastward across the northwestern Gulf Sun through
Mon.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for convection in
the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE
winds and 10 to 12 ft seas are seen at the south-central and parts
of the western basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the eastern basin. Gentle to
moderate NNE to E winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail for the rest
of the basin.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will sustain fresh
to strong trades across all but the northwestern basin through
Thu morning, with locally near-gale winds and rough seas off
Colombia. These winds seas should gradually diminish through Fri
afternoon as the high shifts eastward. A new cold front will
slowly enter the northwestern Caribbean on Fri, followed by fresh
to strong NE winds. The front should stall from central Cuba to
the southern Yucatan Peninsula by Sat morning, then gradually wash
out over the northwestern Caribbean by Sat evening, with
conditions improving during the remainder of the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N36W through
26N50W to 25N60W. Widely scattered showers are evident up to 40
nm along either side of the front. A surface trough near the east
coast of Florida is causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms off southeastern Florida, including the northwest
Bahamas. Convergent trades are causing widely scattered showers
near the Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section at the very beginning for addition convection.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are found near
and up to 150 nm north of the front, and also north of Puerto
Rico and near the Turks and Caicos. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
NE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate north of 20N
between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, For the
tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas
are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle
with locally moderate SE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the front east
of 65W will diminish through Thu morning, as the front dissipates.
A 1030 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will help to
sustain fresh to strong ENE winds south of 23N and in the
approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before
diminishing on Thu. A new cold front will emerge off of the
northeastern end Florida coast tonight, bringing with it fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds behind the front. The cold front
will extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from
31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then
dissipate from 31N59W through the northwestern Bahamas by Sun
morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front is
forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much of the forecast
area Sat, before gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.
$$
Chan
