503
AXNT20 KNHC 020300
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and
continues to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 07N48W to
06N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 04N to 08N between 10W and 25W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 1011 mb low
pressure over the north-central Gulf near 28N90W to 28N94W to near
Tuxpan, Mexico. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted from
28N to 29N between 85W and 90W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds
and 5 to 6 ft seas are ongoing over the far northeast Gulf north
of the front. Fresh N to NE winds and seas to 6 ft are also noted
over the far northwest Gulf off the coast of Texas. Gentle to
moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, the low pressure over the north-central Gulf
will move quickly northeastward tonight, resulting in fresh to
strong N winds and locally rough seas behind the associated
frontal boundary. Winds and seas will diminish late Tue.
Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the
basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf by Wed, as
another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead,
another cold front will enter the NW waters late Thu, reaching
from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough is moving slowly westward into the western
Atlantic and through the Leeward Islands. This is disrupting the
influence of the subtropical ridge north of the area, and is
resulting in light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas over the
far eastern Caribbean. The ridge is still influencing the central
Caribbean where moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are evident. Fresh to locally strong NE winds may be
impacting the Windward Passage. Light to gentle NE to E breezes
and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. A few
showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Panama, but fair
conditions prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the trough will move to the north of Mona
Passage through late Wed, then stall and dissipate. The ridge will
then re-establish north of the area into Thu, supporting moderate
to fresh trade wind flow across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Fri with seas building slightly. Gentle breezes and slight
seas will persist over the western Caribbean.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Fresh SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted off northeast Florida
and north of the northern Bahamas west of 77W, associated with a
stationary front that extends from 30N78W to near Fort Pierce,
Florida. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed a surface
trough along roughly 61W, north of the Leeward Islands to 27N.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end
of the surface trough, from 22N to 30N between 55W and 63W. Weak
ridging between the trough and the front is supporting moderate to
fresh NE winds and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere east of 60W, except for
fresh NE winds near the entrance to the Windward Passage.
Elsewhere over the central and eastern Caribbean, fresh to strong
E to SE winds are noted east of the trough. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in
fresh swell from 20N to 27N between 45W and 60W, and 6 to 9 ft
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly
winds and building seas across the area north of 28N and west of
74W tonight and Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf
of America to the Carolinas. The associated cold front will reach
the waters off the northeast Florida coast late on Tue, extending
from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to
central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly
winds and rough seas follow the surface trough currently located
near 61W. The trough will continue to move westward, passing just
N of Puerto Rico on Tue, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds
and seas in the wake of the trough will gradually diminish over
the next couple of days.
$$
Christensen
