000
AXNT20 KNHC 010346
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Dec 1 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A large area of strong E winds
and seas of 9 to 12 ft extend across the central Atlantic from 19N
to 29N, E of 55W. These conditions are being generated by a
pressure gradient between Azores high pressure and a robust
surface trough that extends along 55W from 07N to 25N. The
highest seas are associated with near gale-force winds in a
corridor near the apex of the trough, from 22N to 26N between 45W
and 55W. The trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 20 kt and
pass north of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will
diminish slightly through the period, but given the long fetch and
duration of the winds, this pattern will support seas building to
12 to 13 ft through today over an area from 22N to 28N between
45W and 58W. Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft
seas will persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W
through late week.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues to 09N18W. The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 05N25W to
07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 07N
between 20W and 30W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana, to
just south of the mouth of the Rio Grande. Strong NE winds and 6
to 8 ft seas follow the front over the far northwest part of the
Gulf. A few showers are evident along the front. A surface trough
remains in place over the central Gulf along 88W from 23N to 27N.
Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere
across the Gulf.
For the forecast, winds and seas behind the front will diminish
today. The front is expected to remain stationary over the
northern Gulf into Tue, when a low pressure will form off Texas
and move NE across the SE U.S. into the NE Atlantic. Winds will
increase to strong speeds in the NE Gulf Mon night and diminish on
Tue. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into
the basin, but then stall again over the central Gulf through mid-
week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead,
expect fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf as the low
pressure moves northeastward.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the northern
Windward Passage, associated with an upper trough in the area. Low
level trade wind convergence along with modest upper level
divergence is also supporting a few thunderstorms off eastern
Panama. High pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic
is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
east of 80W. Gentle to moderate NE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are
noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea
will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the
basin through the forecast period. Winds and seas will lessen a
bit on Tue as the high pressure departs eastward, but another
ridge will build in soon thereafter.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the Special Features section for information on
Significant Swell in the Central Atlantic.
A dissipating stationary front extending from 31N60W
to 25N73W is followed by fresh to locally strong NE winds and
moderate to locally rough seas. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass also confirmed fresh to strong E winds across the Turks and
Caicos Islands and near the northern entrance to the Windward
Passage. This may be in-part related to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in that region associated with an upper trough
extending along 70W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also
noted farther north ahead of the trough, covering the area from
24N to 30N between 60W and 70W. Farther east, as discussed in the
Special Features section, a surface trough extends along 55W from
07N to 25N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Aside from the winds and
seas described in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh
breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
overnight, and high pressure north of the front will shift
eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front
will stall off the northeast Florida coast by Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and
building seas north of 28N and west of 74W late Mon and Tue as low
pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking
ahead, these southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into
Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from near Bermuda
to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late
Thu. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a
trough moving westward into the waters NE of the Leeward Islands
through Tue. Then, the trough will pass just N of Puerto Rico on
Wed.
$$
Christensen
