000
AXNT20 KNHC 071029
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Dec 7 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to
move across the Gulf tonight into Mon, followed by fresh to
strong northwest to north winds and building seas. Gale-force
northwest to north winds are expected off Veracruz Mon evening
along with seas peaking to around 11 ft (3.5 m). Winds and seas
will diminish Tue into Wed as the front becomes stationary from
the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel while high pressure
settles across the central Gulf.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N and east of
39W.
GULF OF AMERICA
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
upcoming gale conditions expected off Veracruz, Mexico.
A weak stationary front extends from near Siesta Key, Florida to
the NW Gulf waters and a few showers are noted north of the
boundary. Generally drier conditions are seen elsewhere. Moderate
or lighter winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail across the basin and will persist through
this evening as the front weakens and drifts northward. A cold
front is expected to enter the NW Gulf tonight and overtake the
current front, while sweeping across the basin into early next
week. This will lead to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building
seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW to N winds are
forecast off Veracruz Mon evening. Winds and seas will diminish
Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the Yucatan Channel and
Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across the central
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist late Wed
through the end of next week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak surface trough along 85W continues to produce scattered
showers west of 82W and south of 20N. Similar convection is noted
off NW Colombia, while pockets of low-level moisture generate
isolated showers in the eastern and central Caribbean. High
pressure north of the area result in fresh to strong easterly
trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the
eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, broad high pressure north of the islands will
support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas
over the central and eastern Caribbean through at least the middle
of next week. Strong winds off NW Colombia, along with locally
rough seas, will diminish this morning. Moderate or lighter winds
and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A persistent
E-NE swell will support rough seas across the Atlantic waters and
passages of the Lesser Antilles through next Thu. Looking ahead, a
weakening cold front will approach the northwestern Caribbean on
Tue and linger across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida
through Wed. High pressure will build across the eastern Gulf of
America by the middle of next week, leading to strong winds and
rough seas in the south-entral Caribbean into late next week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Florida.
Moderate to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas are
occurring north of 28N and east of 55W. Meanwhile, a subtropical
ridge extends from Africa to the Bahamas along 25N. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted south
of 23N and west of 60W. Farther east, a surface trough extends
from 31N37W to 26N52W and moderate to locally strong winds and
rough seas are present north of 26N and between 25N and 60W.
South of 21N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are prevalent.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front
extends from near Bermuda to near Stuart, Florida. Fresh to
locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas are noted ahead of
and behind the front. These winds and seas will shift quickly
eastward today with the front. The weak front is expected to
dissipate later today. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure
system and strong cold front will into the northwestern tropical
Atlantic tonight and Mon, supporting widespread fresh to near
gale-force winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front
Mon through Tue. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to
the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue morning, then gradually
weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed. Large N swell will
move into the regional waters Tue through Wed then diminish Wed
night.
$$
Delgado
