000
AXNT20 KNHC 242331
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Oct 25 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 16.0N 74.3W at 24/2100
UTC or about 190 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica, moving N at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 17
ft just northeast of the center. satellite imagery quite
impressively shows numerous strong conevection within 120 nm
of the center in the N semicircle and within 60 nm of the center
in the S semicircle. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection in wide banding features are within 180 nm of the
center in the E semicircle and within 240 nm of the center in\
the SW quadrant. The latest forecast calls for a turn to the west
on Sat, and this general motion is expected to continue through
Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Tue and
Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to
move near or over Jamaica early next week and could be near or
over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week. Rapid
intensification is now forecast over the next several days, and
Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and a major
hurricane by Sun. Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of
15 to 25 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica
through Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across
the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy rainfall is
likely beyond Tuesday. The uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals. Potentially catastrophic flash
flooding and landslides are possible across portions of Jamaica
and the southern Dominican Republic, while catastrophic flash
flooding is anticipated in southern Haiti.Swells generated by
Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica,
and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
For the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from near
19N41W to 13N42W to 06N43W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 08N
to 13N between 39W and the wave, and from 13N to 17N between 34W
and the wave. Latest scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to
strong east winds in the vicinity of this wave generally from
10N to 15N between 38W and 43W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and extends
southwestward to 107N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
to 09N24W and to 08N38W. It resumes west of the tropical wave
at 10N45W and to 09N59W. Aside from convection related to
the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen from
05N to 09N between 35W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A pair of surface troughs in the W to SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche
are supporting scattered showers near each trough axis. High
pressure in place across the basin supports moderate to fresh
east winds in the eastern half of the Gulf and gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds elsewhere. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft in
the eastern half of the Gulf, to 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Isolated
showers are over some sections of the NW Gulf.
For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong east winds are
expected over the eastern Gulf, including through the Florida
Straits, through Sun morning as high pressure strengthens over
the eastern United States. Locally rough seas may accompany these
winds, especially over the Florida Straits. Over the central and
western basin, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas
will occur into Sun as a complex low pressure system moves
through the southern United States. Winds and seas are expected
to diminish early next week as week ridging builds over the
basin. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to move into the
northern Gulf by the middle of next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on
Tropical Storm Melissa.
Fresh to strong east winds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft are
over most of the eastern and northwestern Caribbean. The
remainder of the basin is generally under gentle to moderate
winds around the periphery of Tropical Storm Melissa along with
seas of 4 to 6 ft.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Melissa is near 16.0N 74.3W at
5 PM EDT, and is moving north at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 995 mb. Rapid intensification is now forecast over the next
several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane
tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sun. A turn to the west is
forecast on Sat and this general motion is expected to continue
through Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on
Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica early next week
and could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next
week. Melissa will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.2N 74.4W Sat
morning, move to 16.4N 74.8W Sat afternoon, 16.5N 75.5W Sun
morning, 16.5N 76.0W Sun afternoon, 16.5N 76.6W Mon morning, and
16.8N 77.4W Mon afternoon. Melissa will move inland over 17.9N
77.4W Tue afternoon.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N69W to 28N74W and
to South Florida. High pressure is northwest of the front while
a cold front is just offshore southeastern Georgia. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 60 to 120
nm east of the front from 28N to 30N. Latest scatterometer
satellite data indicates that fresh northeast winds are northwest
of the stationary front to near 30N. Gentle to moderate
northeast winds are north of 30N and west of 74W. Seas of 5 to 7
ft are northwest of the stationary front. To the southeast of the
stationary front, a trough extends from near 30N67W to the
southeastern Bahamas. An area of numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is present south of 26N between 59W and the
trough.
Farther east, another cold front is analyzed from near 31N26W to
24N39W, then transitions to a stationary front to near 20N49W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along
and ahead of much of this frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate
northwest winds and moderate seas follow this front. A surface
trough extends from a 1014 mb low that is near 38N34W
southwestward to 29N38w and west-northwestward to 30N49W. Fresh
northwest to north winds are north of 30N and west of the trough
to near 42W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in north swell within this area
of winds.
Away from frontal boundaries, the enhanced pressure gradient
between Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean and a 1023 mb high
near 34N71W supports fresh to strong east winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas mainly south of about 27N and west of 60W. Much of the
remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate to locally fresh trades
prevail along with moderate seas.
For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will occur over the Bahamas and offshore of Florida
through Sun morning as an increasing pressure gradient develops
between Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean, a cold front
pushing off the southeastern United States, and high pressure
building in the eastern U.S. Rough seas will accompany these
strong winds, including through the Florida Straits. Winds are
expected to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds on Sun, however,
locally strong winds may redevelop offshore of Florida into the
northern Bahamas late this weekend ahead of a low pressure system
moving through the southeastern U.S. Looking ahead, Tropical
Storm Melissa is centered near 16.0N 74.3W in the central
Caribbean. Rapid intensification is now forecast over the next
several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane
tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sunday. Melissa may move over
Cuba into the western Atlantic early next week, supporting
increasing winds and building seas over this region.
$$
Aguirre'>hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
For the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from near
19N41W to 13N42W to 06N43W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 08N
to 13N between 39W and the wave, and from 13N to 17N between 34W
and the wave. Latest scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to
strong east winds in the vicinity of this wave generally from
10N to 15N between 38W and 43W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and extends
southwestward to 107N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
to 09N24W and to 08N38W. It resumes west of the tropical wave
at 10N45W and to 09N59W. Aside from convection related to
the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen from
05N to 09N between 35W and 38W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A pair of surface troughs in the W to SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche
are supporting scattered showers near each trough axis. High
pressure in place across the basin supports moderate to fresh
east winds in the eastern half of the Gulf and gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds elsewhere. Seas range from 4 to 7 ft in
the eastern half of the Gulf, to 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Isolated
showers are over some sections of the NW Gulf.
For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong east winds are
expected over the eastern Gulf, including through the Florida
Straits, through Sun morning as high pressure strengthens over
the eastern United States. Locally rough seas may accompany these
winds, especially over the Florida Straits. Over the central and
western basin, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas
will occur into Sun as a complex low pressure system moves
through the southern United States. Winds and seas are expected
to diminish early next week as week ridging builds over the
basin. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to move into the
northern Gulf by the middle of next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on
Tropical Storm Melissa.
Fresh to strong east winds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft are
over most of the eastern and northwestern Caribbean. The
remainder of the basin is generally under gentle to moderate
winds around the periphery of Tropical Storm Melissa along with
seas of 4 to 6 ft.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Melissa is near 16.0N 74.3W at
5 PM EDT, and is moving north at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 995 mb. Rapid intensification is now forecast over the next
several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane
tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sun. A turn to the west is
forecast on Sat and this general motion is expected to continue
through Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on
Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica early next week
and could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next
week. Melissa will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.2N 74.4W Sat
morning, move to 16.4N 74.8W Sat afternoon, 16.5N 75.5W Sun
morning, 16.5N 76.0W Sun afternoon, 16.5N 76.6W Mon morning, and
16.8N 77.4W Mon afternoon. Melissa will move inland over 17.9N
77.4W Tue afternoon.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N69W to 28N74W and
to South Florida. High pressure is northwest of the front while
a cold front is just offshore southeastern Georgia. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 60 to 120
nm east of the front from 28N to 30N. Latest scatterometer
satellite data indicates that fresh northeast winds are northwest
of the stationary front to near 30N. Gentle to moderate
northeast winds are north of 30N and west of 74W. Seas of 5 to 7
ft are northwest of the stationary front. To the southeast of the
stationary front, a trough extends from near 30N67W to the
southeastern Bahamas. An area of numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is present south of 26N between 59W and the
trough.
Farther east, another cold front is analyzed from near 31N26W to
24N39W, then transitions to a stationary front to near 20N49W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along
and ahead of much of this frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate
northwest winds and moderate seas follow this front. A surface
trough extends from a 1014 mb low that is near 38N34W
southwestward to 29N38w and west-northwestward to 30N49W. Fresh
northwest to north winds are north of 30N and west of the trough
to near 42W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in north swell within this area
of winds.
Away from frontal boundaries, the enhanced pressure gradient
between Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean and a 1023 mb high
near 34N71W supports fresh to strong east winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas mainly south of about 27N and west of 60W. Much of the
remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate to locally fresh trades
prevail along with moderate seas.
For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will occur over the Bahamas and offshore of Florida
through Sun morning as an increasing pressure gradient develops
between Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean, a cold front
pushing off the southeastern United States, and high pressure
building in the eastern U.S. Rough seas will accompany these
strong winds, including through the Florida Straits. Winds are
expected to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds on Sun, however,
locally strong winds may redevelop offshore of Florida into the
northern Bahamas late this weekend ahead of a low pressure system
moving through the southeastern U.S. Looking ahead, Tropical
Storm Melissa is centered near 16.0N 74.3W in the central
Caribbean. Rapid intensification is now forecast over the next
several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane
tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sunday. Melissa may move over
Cuba into the western Atlantic early next week, supporting
increasing winds and building seas over this region.
$$
Aguirre
