000
AXNT20 KNHC 140530
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed May 14 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Gambia,
then extends southwestward to near 03N24W. An ITCZ continues
westward from 03N24W across 03N35W to just north of French Guiana
at 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south
of the monsoon trough from 01N to 04N between 10W and 23W, and up
to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough over southern Florida is causing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Florida Straits
near central Cuba. A surface ridge reaches westward from a 1014
mb high at the east-central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Light
to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the eastern
Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate
the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to SSE winds and seas at 4
to 6 ft are evident at the western Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche.
For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern Gulf should
steadily strengthen through Wed, then drift eastward towards Florida
where it will prevail through the weekend. This will maintain the
tight gradient against lower pressure over eastern Mexico,
sustaining fresh to locally strong southerly winds along with
moderate to rough seas over the western Gulf through the weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad surface ridge across the western Atlantic near 25N
continues to support a trade-wind regime for most of the
Caribbean Basin. A surface trough is producing widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern basin,
including waters just east of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9
ft dominate the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E
winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen over the eastern, north-central
and southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with seas
of 2 to 4 ft prevail at the northwestern basin.
For the forecast, high pressure north of Bermuda will continue to
support strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia through late Wed
along with moderate to rough seas. It will lift northward and
then southeastward towards the central Atlantic subtropical
waters. This should keep mainly moderate to fresh trades across
the central and eastern basin Wed night through Thu night, and
gentle to moderate easterly winds through the weekend. Moderate
to fresh trades along with moderate to rough seas are going to
prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters and passages through Sat
night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are forecast in
the Gulf of Honduras from late Wed through Sat night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Convergent winds east of a surface trough over southern Florida
are triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the northwest Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Caribbean Sea sections for additional weather in the Atlantic
Basin. A broad surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a
1025 mb high at the central Atlantic at 30N34W to beyond the
central Bahamas. These features are supporting light to gentle
winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft north of 25N between 35W and 68W. To
the west, moderate to fresh SSE to SSW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas
are found north of 25N between 68W and the Florida east coast. For
the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 25N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles/Bahamas, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to
8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in
mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west
of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh S to SE winds and rough seas
to 8 ft will linger through early tonight across the offshore
waters northeast of Freeport, north of 28N between 74W and 77W,
associated with the remnants of a frontal boundary. Farther south,
pulsing fresh to strong E winds are expected each afternoon and
evening offshore of northern Hispaniola through Thu. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE and SE
swells will prevail south of 25N this week, including across the
Atlantic passages into the eastern Caribbean.
$$
Chan
