515
AXNT20 KNHC 022031
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 11N14.5W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 01N to 05N between 20W and 25W, and from 02S to 03N
between 34W and 48W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and a 1004 mb low over Mexico
is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the basin. These winds
are generating seas in the 3-6 ft range.
For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic surface ridge extends
westward across the northern Gulf states and will dominate the
Gulf region through Sat morning, then weaken Sat afternoon and
night as a cold front approaches. This will support moderate to
fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with occasional strong
winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and across the northwestern
Gulf and through the Florida Straits through Sat. A cold front
will enter the northwestern Gulf early Sun and move southeastward
through early next week, reaching from near Fort Myers, FL to
23N94W to the central Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Expected strong
to near gale-force winds and rough seas behind the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds in the south
central Caribbean. Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft range.
Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic ridge continues along
about 34N and into the SE U.S., and will weaken modestly through
Sun morning. The pressure gradient between this surface ridge and
the Colombian low will support fresh winds pulsing to strong with
rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, and fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas in the lee
side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola
through Fri night, before winds and seas diminish over the
weekend. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward
into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, and yield fresh trade
winds across the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough extends from 26N55W to 17N60W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the trough.
High pressure is centered N and W of the trough. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong
winds N of 20N between 50W and 75W. A second trough is over the
eastern waters from 28N25W to 20N22W. High pressure is north of
the trough. The pressure gradient between these features is
supporting fresh winds N of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Mostly rough seas prevail N of 20N between 40W
and 75W, and N of 24N between 23W and 40W. Moderate seas are found
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure extends from
the central Atlantic west-southwestward into the SE U.S., and will
drift slowly SW and weaken modestly through Sun morning. This
pattern will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
mainly south of 29N, including the central and southeast Bahamas,
through this weekend. By late Sun, the high will have weakened and
shifted to NE of Bermuda, while an inverted surface trough forms
from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic. A cold front is
expected to exit the southeastern U.S. early Mon and move slowly
southeastward, reaching from 31N72W to central Florida by Tue
morning.
$$
AL
