928
AXNT20 KNHC 112354
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Dec 12 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the
western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front spans from just south
of the Big Bend of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula to southern
Mexico, and the front will continue to quickly move southeastward
across the basin, exiting the region this evening. Strong to gale-
force winds and seas to 19 ft can be expected in the wake of the
front through this evening. These hazardous marine conditions will
gradually diminish from W to E tonight into Thu.
Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds will continue over
the NE Florida offshore waters this evening ahead of a rapidly
approaching cold front forecast currently entering the basin.
Frequent gusts to gale-force out of the S and SW and building
seas to 10 ft are expected ahead of the front this evening. Winds
will turn to the NW behind the front and frequent gusts to gale-
force will continue tonight before winds slowly diminish to fresh
to strong speeds on Thu.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website-
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over W Africa near
07N11.5W then extends westward to 07N14.5W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N14.5W to 01N50W. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ
between 20W and 39W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect.
At 1800 UTC, a strong cold front extended from just south of the
Florida Big Bend region to the Yucatan Peninsula to southern
Mexico. Strong to near gale-force N winds follow the front across
much of the Gulf along with very rough seas up to 19 ft, with
gale-force winds occurring in the SW basin. Aside from the wind
and seas, scattered moderate convection lingers just offshore of
the Yucatan Peninsula in the far eastern Bay of Campeche.
For the forecast, a Gale Warning remains in effect for the SW
Gulf of Mexico. The aforementioned cold front will exit the Gulf
region this evening. Strong gale force winds of 35 to 45 kt and
very rough seas in the 12 to 18 ft range are noted in the wake of
the front. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually
diminish from W to E tonight into Thu, then high pressure settling
into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the
end of the week, and into the weekend. However, fresh to strong NE
to E winds and rough seas will persist over the SE Gulf and the
Straits of Florida through Sat as the high pressure strengthens
while moving towards the NE of the United States.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A surface trough is analyzed along the coasts of Belize and the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and is fueling the development of
scattered moderate convection in the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf
of Honduras. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores
High well north of the area and lower pressures over South America
is forcing fresh to strong ENE to E trades across the central
Caribbean and moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage.
Rapidly increasing NE winds are developing in the NW Caribbean
ahead of a strong cold front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
ongoing in the eastern basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the
central and SW Caribbean and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure N of area will shift eastward
over the central Atlantic through tonight allowing for the trades
to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds, except off the coast of
Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will persist through Fri. A
cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this evening, and become
stationary from east-central Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios,
Nicaragua Thu night while weakening. Fresh to strong NE winds
behind the front will diminish some on Fri, except in the lee of
Cuba and the Windward Passage where fresh to strong NE winds will
continue through Sat.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning currently in effect.
Strong high pressure anchored by a 1040 mb high over the NW
Atlantic extends a broad ridge across the entire subtropical
Atlantic waters. The ridge is being dissected by an elongated
surface trough that extends from 29N51W to 09N56W, which is
supporting widely scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection from 18N to 30N between 45W and 56W. Aside from the
convective activity, fresh to strong E winds and seas up to 11 ft
are also ongoing either side of the trough between 40W and 65W.
Elsewhere, a strong cold front is exiting the southeastern United
States and entering the northwestern basin. Strong to near-gale
force winds are occurring along and behind the front. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and moderate seas dominate the Atlantic E of 40W.
For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong S winds will continue
to affect the NE Florida offshore waters ahead of the next cold
front entering the basin this evening. Frequent gusts to gale-
force and rough seas are expected ahead of the front while minimal
gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front through
this evening. The front will reach from 31N69W to 23N78W Thu
afternoon, and 31N68W to 21.5N75W Fri afternoon while weakening.
Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will tighten the
pressure gradient against an approaching surface trough from the
east. In addition, strong high pressure also follows the trough.
This weather pattern will lead to the continuation of strong to
near gale-force winds and rough seas across most of the region
through the weekend.
$$
ADAMS
