489
AXNT20 KNHC 151733
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Mar 15 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Atlc Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to develop in
the central Atlantic beginning on Sun night. As the system
intensifies, gale-force winds are expected on Mon across the
northern semicircle of the low, mainly N of 26N between 48W and
55W. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. The
low will move NW through mid-week while weakening.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 00N20W, where
it drops below the Equator. The ITCZ remains south of the Equator.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from the Equator
to 05N between 03E and 39W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
At 1200 UTC, a cold front was entering the Gulf and extended from
near Corpus Christi, TX to South Padre Island, with a pre-frontal
trough analyzed roughly 80-100 nm ahead of the front. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and near
both of these features. Latest scatterometer data indicate strong
to near-gale force winds ahead of the front and trough out to near
89W and N of 22N. Fresh to strong SE winds persist across much of
the remaining Gulf. Seas are 6-10 ft S and E of a line running
from Cedar Key, FL to near Veracruz, Mexico, with seas to the N
and W of that line analyzed at 2-6 ft.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough
seas persist across mainly the central Gulf, ahead of a cold front
entering the northwest Gulf. The front will move southeast and
reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by Sun
morning, and move E of the Gulf Mon morning. Near- gale force
southerly winds will likely develop ahead of the front today and
off Veracruz Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over
the basin Mon through mid week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW Caribbean
while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of America. This
pattern is allowing for fresh to locally strong E to SE winds
over the Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean, with similar wind
speeds from the NE and E are noted offshore Colombia. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are observed per scatterometer data in the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the
remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 6 ft with the strongest
winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will
build while it shifts to the southeast to the central Atlantic
waters. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night offshore
Colombia through early next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
are expected in the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican
Republic through the weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf
of Honduras will expand to the remaining northwest Caribbean
ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the Yucatan Channel
into the northwest basin Mon morning. Rough seas are expected with
the strong winds preceding the front. Fresh to strong N to NE
winds and moderate seas will be associated with the passage of the
front, which is forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to NE
Honduras by Tue morning, from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua
Tue evening before dissipating late Wed.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the central Atlantic.
A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N28W and
continues SW to near 23N48W, where it transitions into a
stationary frontal boundary that extends to 21N64W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front N of 25N.
An area of cloudiness, with embedded showers is observed north of
the stationary front to about 30N between 48W and 60W. To the NW
of the stationary front, a trough is analyzed from 28N66W to
23N66W. The pressure gradient between the fronts, trough, and high
pressure N of the forecast region supports an area of fresh to
strong easterly winds from 23N to 31N between 55W and the trough
axis. Mainly fresh NE winds are noted in the wake of the front
along with rough seas.
In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb high pressure center is
analyzed at 29N18W, extending a weak ridge across much of the
remaining subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate trade winds
and moderate seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic except in
the vicinity of the Cabo Verde Islands where moderate to fresh NE
wind are occurring with seas of 6 to 8 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the tail end of a stationary front
is analyzed along 22N east of 65W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
and rough seas to 9 ft are ongoing N of the front east of 65W. The
front will gradually dissipate through Sun. High pressure over
the NW Atlantic will build while it shifts SE to the central
Atlantic waters through early next week. The pressure gradient
between the associated ridge and the remnants of the
aforementioned front will lead to the development of fresh to
strong winds north of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend. These
winds will support building rough seas across E of the Bahamas.
Looking ahead, a low pres system will develop east of the area,
with increasing winds to gale- force possible mainly north of 27N
and east of 56W by Mon afternoon/night. Farther west, a strong
cold front will push off the SE United States coast early Mon
preceded and followed by fresh to near-gale force winds. The front
will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos and eastern Cuba
Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed morning.
$$
Adams
