139
AXNT20 KNHC 212307
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Apr 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward through 07N20W to
03N24W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N24W through
00N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered to numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up near and
south of the monsoon trough S of 07N between 10W and 22W.
Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 180 nm
along either side of the ITCZ between 22W and 50W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The southern end of a recent cold front has moved into western
Cuba, with the remnants extending westward across the entrance to
the Yucatan Channel. Scattered light to moderate showers extends
across the Florida Straits westward to 87W. Two modest surface
troughs are triggering additional showers over the central and
southwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and seas of 6
to 9 ft dominate the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf.
Moderate to fresh SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are noted at the
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE return flow across the NW
Gulf is producing areas of broken to overcast low and mid clouds
across the SE Texas and Louisiana coastal waters. Seas are 3 to 5
ft across the western third of the Gulf.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds and rough seas
will gradually diminish through Wed morning across the Florida
Straits and the SE Gulf, as the cold front dissipates across Cuba
and the NW Caribbean, and high pressure builds across the northern
basin. As the high settles over the region, gentle to moderate SE
winds will develop basin-wide by Wed night, then persist through
late week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Daytime heating has led to scattered moderate afternoon convection
across Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba this afternoon. An Atlantic
cold front extends from the central Atlantic through 24N70W and
through the central Bahamas and across western Cuba. High pressure
along the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. is north of the front
and is currently yielding only a modest trade-wind regime across
the basin this evening. Moderate to locally fresh E-NE winds
prevail across south central portions, through the Windward
Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across the
south central portions, and 3 to 5 ft in the Windward Passage, and
2 to 4 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure will persist north
of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
over the Caribbean basin into the weekend, as the cold front
gradually dissipates through Thu. Fresh NE winds will occur
tonight through Wed night across the Windward Passage and south of
Cuba as the cold front moves southward across Cuba, then
dissipates along the N coast of Hispaniola Thu. Tranquil marine
conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri through the
weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front curves southwestward from E of Bermuda through
31N60W, through the central Bahamas and into western Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is seen near and up to 180 nm east and southeast
of this boundary. To the south, convergent trade winds are
coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger numerous heavy
showers and scattered thunderstorms near the coast of French
Guiana, and State of Amapa in Brazil.
1030 mb high pressure is along the middle Atlantic coast of the
U.S. The associated pressure gradient between this high and front
continues to produce fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8
to 13 ft north of the front, except for moderate winds and seas
offshore of NE Florida to 75W. Fresh with locally strong S to SW
winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found ahead of the front, north of
27N between 56W and the front. To the east, 1020 mb high pressure
is centered near 33N41W and extends a broad and weak ridge
southward into the tropical Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the waters S of 23N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Large NW to N swell is moving
through the northern waters, producing seas of 7 to 10 ft to the
north of 24N between the Canary Islands and 40W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move
southeastward and weaken through Thu, reaching from 25N55W to the
N coast of Hispaniola Thu morning. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
and rough seas will continue to follow the front through Wed
night, with conditions gradually improving late this week as the
front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over SE waters. High
pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda for
the end of the week, bringing tranquil marine conditions to area
waters through the weekend.
$$
Stripling
