000
AXNT20 KNHC 211813
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
southern Senegal and Guinea Bissau, then curves southwestward
through 06N20W to 03N24W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward
from 03N24W through 00N35W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up near and
south of the monsoon trough from 07S to 05N between 10W and
20W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 100 nm
along either side of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
The southeastern end of a cold front curves southwestward across
the Florida Straits to just northwest of the Yucatan Channel.
Scattered showers are observed near and up to 60 nm north of the
front. Two modest surface troughs are triggering additional
showers at the central Gulf. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of
6 to 8 ft dominate the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf.
Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are noted at
the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas
at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the cold front is going to move over Cuba this
afternoon. In response, fresh to locally strong winds and rough
seas will gradually diminish in the southeastern Gulf in the wake
of the front into tonight. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds
will return to the Gulf on Thu.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The southwestern end of a surface trough is producing patchy
showers near Hispaniola. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is
persisting across much of the basin. Moderate ENE winds and seas
of 3 to 6 ft are present at the lee of Cuba and northwest of
Colombia. Mainly gentle NE to E winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure will persist north
of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient
over the Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to locally
strong NE winds will develop tonight and Wed night across the
Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba, associated with a late-
season cold front moving across Cuba. The front is expected to
dissipate near the Windward Passage Wed night. Tranquil marine
conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri and Sat.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across
31N62W to beyond the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate
convection is seen near and up to 200 nm southeast of this
boundary. To the south, convergent trade winds are coupling with
divergent winds aloft to trigger numerous heavy showers and
scattered thunderstorms near the coast of French Guiana, and State
of Amapa in Brazil.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are evident
behind the aforementioned front, except gentle to moderate NE to
ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas off northeast Florida to 75W. Fresh
with locally strong S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found
ahead of the front, north of 28N between 56W and the front. To the
east, gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
dominate north of 20N between 35W and 55W. For the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas will follow the front as it progresses eastward through Thu,
although conditions in the wake of the front will gradually
improve as the front weakens late this week. High pressure will
settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda for the end of the
week, bringing tranquil conditions to area waters into the
weekend.
$$
Chan
