000
AXNT20 KNHC 230906
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 23 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 01N25W.
The ITCZ extends from 01N25W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is south of 04N and east of 20W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Gulf waters supports
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas off northern Yucatan.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail. Dry weather conditions dominate the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will
maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas
across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the
eastern Gulf into late week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche
will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern
and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night
through mid-week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
High pressure remains in place over the eastern Gulf. Recent
scatterometer satellite passes confirmed fresh to strong NE winds
over the northern Caribbean, south of Cuba and Hispaniola, and
through the Windward Passage. Concurrent altimeter satellite
passes indicated 4-7 ft seas in this area. A weak surface trough
in the central Caribbean supports a few showers south of Jamaica.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.
For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic
will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola into tonight.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas
will develop offshore Colombia Tue through Fri, mainly at night,
as the high pressure moves slightly eastward.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N52W to the USVI. Recent satellite
scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force SE winds
north of 25N and east of the front to 50W, and fresh to strong NW
winds north of 28N and west of the front to 61W. Concurrent
altimeter satellite data showed combined seas are 8 to 11 ft north
of 24N between 50W and 65W. In the rest of the SW North Atlantic
west of 50W, a subtropical ridge dominates sustaining moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas.
In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1001 mb low pressure
centered west of the Canary Islands forces fresh to strong N-NW
winds and rough to very rough seas north of 23N and east of 30W.
N-NW swell support rough seas in the eastern Atlantic and central
Atlantic trade waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is forecast to move
into the central Atlantic through Tue while gradually dissipating.
Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore
waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Tue,
followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough
seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the
waters north of 28N into mid-week before the front lifts
northward.
$$
Christensen
