AXNT20 KNHC 162301

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Apr 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone and Liberia and enters the Atlantic near 07N11.5W extending to 03.5N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N19W to 01.5S35W to coastal Brazil near 00.5S49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N and between 04W and 26W , and between 37W and 50W.


An Atlantic subtropical ridge persists over the NE Gulf this afternoon. The associated pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico and Texas is resulting in fresh to locally strong E-SE to SE winds west of 85W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the rest of the Gulf, with seas to 5 ft in the Straits of Florida. Widely scattered showers are observed across the Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters, embedded in the return flow, while tranquil weather conditions are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will remain across the NE Gulf and combine with relatively lower pressure in the western Gulf to produce fresh to strong winds pulsing off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the next several nights. Similar winds are also forecast in the western Gulf tonight. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas will continue through most of the week. A cold may move into the NW Gulf Sun and Sun night, followed by fresh northeast winds.


A deep layered upper trough extending from the western Atlantic S-SW across the central Caribbean supports a surface trough over Hispaniola. These features continue to produce scattered moderate thunderstorms across Hispaniola, while a cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms is presently over the nearshore waters along the south side of the island. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures in NW Colombia support moderate to locally fresh winds across NW portions, and fresh NE winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across NW portions, and of 4-6 ft across the south central and southwest portions. Strong NE winds prevail through the Windward Passage, where seas are 5 to 7 ft and building. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft are occurring.

For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will result in fresh to locally strong trade winds pulsing nightly in the south-central Caribbean Sea through Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage, south of the Dominican Republic and in the lee of Cuba through early Thu, then in the Windward Passage at night through Sun. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can be expected across much of the basin through the middle of the week, then become confined to mostly the central and eastern sections of the basin Sat through Sun night.


A frontal trough, supported by a deep layered upper trough, extends from 30N63W to NW Hispaniola. Another surface troughs is east of there, from near 21N63W to the Virgin Islands. Abundant low level moisture and divergence aloft to the east of the upper trough are resulting in scattered moderate convection south of 29N and between 53W and the frontal trough. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are west of this main trough and extend into the Bahamas. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft. To the east of the trough, moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are occurring north of 15N to 50W. The remainder of the basin is under broad ridging, supporting mainly fresh easterly trade winds and 7-9 ft seas south of 20N and west of 35W.

A broad 1009 mb low pressure system persists south of the Azores, sustaining moderate to fresh westerly winds and 6-8 ft seas north of 28N and between 23W and 42W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present.

For the forecast W of 55W, the large trough extending from 30N63W to NW Hispaniola will continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the east of it tonight. The supporting upper level trough will shift eastward through Thu, with active weather remaining to the east of this feature. A weak low pressure is expected to form near 24N57W Wed night and track northeastward. Decaying NE swell across the waters est of 65W to the Leeward islands will linger through early Wed afternoon. High pressure will build over the waters north of about 20N later this week allowing for generally tranquil marine conditions. A cold front may move over the waters east of northeast Florida late Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could precede this front.

$$ Stripling