754
AXNT20 KNHC 121139
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon May 12 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N18W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 00N50. Scattered moderate
convection is present south of 08N and west of 20W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to the NW
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
evident in the SE Gulf, especially across the Florida Straits and
southern Florida. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted behind the front in the northern Gulf. Generally dry
conditions are noted elsewhere. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail across the Gulf waters.
For the forecast, the front will drift eastward in the next
couple of days, exiting the basin on Tue. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue ahead of the front. Farther
west, a trough is moving across the northern Gulf of America,
supporting pulsing moderate to fresh W to NW winds across the
northern basin today into Tue. The trough will also induce a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the northern Gulf. Looking
ahead, high pressure will build across the Gulf by midweek. A
strengthening pressure gradient between deepening low pressure in
the central United States and the aforementioned high will support
fresh to locally strong S to SE winds offshore of Texas and
Mexico Tue through late week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E winds in the
central Caribbean, with winds locally near gale force in the Gulf
of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are in the E Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the NW Caribbean. Seas
are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the south-central to SW Caribbean,
and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean.
Seas of 3 to 6 ft dominate the NW Caribbean. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across much of
the Caribbean W of 77W in advance of a cold front currently draped
across the Gulf of America and the Yucatan Peninsula, aided by
upper-level diffluent flow as well as a surface trough located
over the NW Caribbean, which extends from 19N86W southward into
Honduras.
For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough
seas are expected across much of the central Caribbean, including
through the Windward Passage, into early Wed as a strong pressure
gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the
Colombian low. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible
offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of Venezuela each
afternoon and night. Farther east, pulsing moderate to fresh E
winds and locally rough seas are likely across the Atlantic
Passages into the eastern Caribbean through midweek. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will slowly diminish by late week.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is analyzed from 10N58W to 18N58W, and is
acting to develop scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
an area from 14-17N between 52-56W. Scattered showers are also
noted from 16-27N and E of 33W. Otherwise, high pressure
dominates much of the Atlantic discussion waters, anchored by a
1029 mb high centered near 33N43W. The associated ridge reaches
the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles and the NE Caribbean. Under the
influence of this system, moderate to fresh winds prevail across
much of the Atlantic S of 24N along with moderate seas. E winds
are fresh to strong in an area from 10-19N between 48-61W, as well
as offshore Guyana. To the N of 24N, gentle to moderate trades
prevail along with seas of 3-6 ft, with the exception of areas W
of 76W, where recent scatterometer data indicated moderate to
fresh SE winds increasing in advance of a cold front currently
over the Gulf of America. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted across much of this region, with scattered
moderate convection occurring through the Florida Straits.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE to S winds are
expected to develop tonight and continue into Tue offshore of
central and northern Florida as a strengthening pressure gradient
develops between high pressure in the western Atlantic and low
pressure in the southeastern United States. A cold front
associated with the low pressure system is slated to move offshore
of the southeastern U.S. on Tue and meander through midweek,
before weakening and lifting northeastward. Elsewhere, pulsing
moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of 25N this week.
Locally rough seas in NE swell will impact the waters near the
Lesser Antilles and across the passages into the Caribbean through
late week.
$$
Delgado
