000
AXNT20 KNHC 272312
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed May 28 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is along 47W from 03N to 14N moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is ahead of the wave axis from 04N to 10N between 47W and 52W.
A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis
is along 73W, S of Haiti to northern Colombia. The wave is moving
at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over
northern Colombia and western Venezuela.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues
SW to near 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 06N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N E of 15W to the
coast of Africa, and from 06N to 08N between 30W and 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough is analyzed over the NW Gulf while a surface
ridge dominates the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data
indicate fresh to strong NE to E winds behind the trough axis.
A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the
trough. Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere W of 90W while
mainly Light to gentle winds are over eastern Gulf. Seas are in
the 3 to 6 ft range W of 90W, and 1 to 3 ft E of 90W. Visible
satellite pictures showed smoke over the western Gulf, including
the Bay of Campeche, creating hazy conditions. Observations
along the Mexican coast also confirmed the presence of hazy
conditions.
For the forecast, a surface ridge will prevail across the NE
Gulf through Thu. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure over Mexico will support moderate to
fresh SE winds across the western half of the Gulf. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Thu night as
a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward to the
Bay of Campeche at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in SE
Mexico are expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the
Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through the end of the week. A
weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf later this week.
The front will stall from central Florida to Texas during the
weekend where it will gradually dissipate.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A ridge persists N of the area. The pressure gradient between
this ridge, and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong
winds over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to
moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 7 to 10 ft range over
the south-central Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere S of 18N and
E of 82W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the NW Caribbean with
the exception of 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.
As it is normal for this time of the year, convection has developed
over parts of the Greater Antilles due to daytime heating, local
sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting. Clear skies are offshore
Colombia and in the Gulf of of Honduras due to the stronger
winds blowing there. Elsewhere, shallow moisture, embedded in the
trade wind flow is moving across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.
For the forecast, pressure gradient between high pressure north of
the region and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE
to E winds and rough seas in the central, and portions of the
southwest Caribbean through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trades
are forecast for the majority of the remainder basin, except for
pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Fri.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
High pressure of 1030 mb located in the vicinity of the Azores
dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. Its associated ridge
extends SW toward the Bahamas and Florida. Light to gentle winds
are along the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere
N of 20N and W of 20W. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds are
noted. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range N of 20N, and 6 to 8 ft S
of 20N. Transverse high clouds are observed across the Leeward
Islands and regional Atlantic waters due to strong SW to W winds
aloft. Farther E, the pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in fresh to strong
northerly winds between the Canary Islands. fresh to strong N
winds are also noted from 18N to 23N between 17W and 22W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will
persist from east to west along roughly 27N/28N through Fri night.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the
Colombian low will support moderate to fresh winds south of 25N.
Otherwise, a series of weak frontal troughs will sweep eastward
across the waters north of the ridge and between northeast Florida
and Bermuda through Thu. Moderate to fresh SW winds are forecast
across the NE Florida offshore waters Thu night ahead of a cold
front forecast to move off the northern Florida coast Fri night.
The front will stall from 31N74W to NE Florida by Sat evening
before dissipating late Sun. Locally strong SW winds are forecast
ahead of the front Fri night into Sat.
$$
GR
