AXNT20 KNHC 031735

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Dec 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.


Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front currently extends from 31N51W to 26N60W. The pressure gradient between the front and 1011 mb low pressure centered near 24N50W is supporting gale force NE winds N of 28N between 48W and 55W. Seas are currently 11-16 ft in N swell. The cold front will continue to move southeast towards the low pressure. The low is expected to remain stationary and deepen over the next 24 hours. Gales will prevail through tonight before diminishing to near gale force on Sunday. Seas will build to 13-18 ft by Sunday morning, remaining hazardous through at least Monday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 18W and 22W and from 05N to 09N between 38W and 58W.


Ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, except for a weak trough in the W Bay of Campeche near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. Light and variable winds prevail in the basin north of 27N. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail south of 27N, locally fresh in the Straits of Florida. Seas are 3-5 across most of the Gulf, with 5-7 ft seas noted in the SE Gulf, including within the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, a cold front will approach the far northern Gulf tonight, then stall Sun and dissipate Sun night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and dominate much of next week.


Moderate to fresh NNE winds continue in the central and western Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between building high pressure to the north and climatological low pressure over Colombia will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area through tonight, with areas of strong winds in the lee of the Greater Antilles, the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia. Winds will then slowly diminish for the start of next week.


Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Gale Warning in the central Atlantic.

A cold front currently extends from 31N51W to 26N60W. A shear line continues from 26N60W to the coast of Cuba near 23N79W. Outside of the Gale Warning, fresh to strong NE winds are noted to the north of both the front and the shear line. Strong to near gale force NE winds are north of 25N between 45W and the cold front. Gentle NNE winds are south of the shear line. Seas greater than 8 ft are north of a line from 31N45W to 21N69W to 27N78W. Seas greater than 12 ft are north of 26N between 50W and 73W. Highest seas are in the Gale Warning Area. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N to 29N between 56W and 65W and from 26N to 31N between 43W and 50W.

In the east Atlantic, a cold front extends from the Canary Islands to 26N26W to 31N40W. Moderate N winds are behind the front. Seas behind this front are 8 to 11 ft in long period N swell.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, gentle to moderate trades prevail with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Gale Warned cold front will slide east tonight while the shear line dissipates. High pressure building in the wake of the front will lead to strong NE to E winds across much of the forecast area into Sun. Long- period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas through the start of next week.

$$ Mahoney