AXNT20 KNHC 010509

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC.


The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 03N21W to 05N27W and to 02N37W. The ITCZ stretches from 02N37W to 00N47W. Isolated moderate convection is present east of 17N. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of 10N and between 20W and 37W.


An approaching frontal boundary and divergence aloft result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW Gulf of Mexico, especially near SW Louisiana. No deep convection is noted elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressures in the southern United States support strong to near gale-force southerly winds north of 25N and between 88W and 95W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass, showing winds up to 32 kt. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 3-7 ft prevail in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, Strong to near gale SE return flow will quickly weaken Fri as a cold front approaches the coast of Texas. The weak cold front should be located just offshore of the Texas coast Fri night, extend from Louisiana to Tampico by Sat night, reach from the Florida peninsula to the Bay of Campeche by Sun night, and finally move across the basin by Mon. Fresh to strong NW winds should occur along the W Gulf following the front Sat night through Mon. Looking ahead, quiescent conditions should prevail across most of the Gulf early next week.


High pressure north of the region and lower pressures in NW South America sustain strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds, along with seas of 4-7 ft, are noted in the north-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the eastern and SW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. Latest satellite imagery indicate that only shallow patches of moisture traverse the Caribbean waters, supporting isolated showers.

For the forecast, a strong Bermuda High north of the area combined with the Colombia Low will continue to support fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across the central and E Caribbean through Sat night. As the high diminishes and shifts eastward, the trades will weaken some from Sun through early next week.


A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N43W and continues southwestward to 24N64W, where it transitions into a shear line to 22N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen on satellite imagery north of 26N and between 43W and 53W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are found north of the aforementioned boundaries, along with seas of 6-10 ft. However, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident north of 28N and between 60W and 74W. Farther east, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-11 ft are present north of 24N and east of 30W.

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west to 55W, a cold front extending from 25N55W to 23N66W will move southeastward across forecast waters on Fri while weakening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in NW swell will follow the front through Sat. As the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, winds will diminish Sat night through Mon. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the NE coast of Florida Sun night, and reach from near Bermuda to the N Bahamas by Mon night.

$$ Delgado