000
AXNT20 KNHC 141049
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Dec 14 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.
Updated information on Meteo-France Marine Zones
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a strong high
over the northeastern U.S. to near Bermuda. A surface trough
curves northeastward from a 1009 mb low north of Puerto Rico to
southeast of Bermuda near 30N61W. Tight gradient between these
features is causing strong to gale-force NE winds between Bermuda
and the northwest Bahamas. These winds along with peak seas of 16
to 18 ft will persist through Sun. As the low slowly weakens
Sunday night, both winds and seas should gradually subside.
However winds will stay at fresh to strong speeds and seas will
remain above 12 ft through Monday night.
Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning:
Tight gradient between a 1037 mb high north of the Azores and a
1008 mb low west of the Canary Islands is generating strong to
near-gale NE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas between the Canary and the
Cape Verde Islands. This low is expect to steadily deepen while
drifting northward today and Sunday, allowing these winds to reach
gale-force and expand southward to near 28N by this evening. Seas
will also peak at 15 to 19 ft by late tonight. As the low
continues to move northward and pass north of 31N Sunday afternoon
and night, marine conditions will improve.
For both Gale Warnings above, please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurcn Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.
Meteo-France Marine Zones Gale Warning:
Meteo-France issued Gale Warnings for the marine zones of
southeastern and northwestern IRVING, eastern METEOR, western
MADEIRA, and western CANARIAS through 15/12Z. Please refer to the
website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough remain mostly over the Africa Continent. The
ITCZ extends westward from offshore of northern Liberia at 05N15W
through 05N40W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 03N to 11N between 27W and 42W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A broad surface ridge reaches southwestward from the southeastern
U.S. across northern Florida to a 1021 mb high near Veracruz,
Mexico. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are
present at the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits.
Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted
elsewhere.
For the forecast, the strong ridge over the SE United States will
continue to force fresh to strong NE to E winds over most of the
Gulf of Mexico through this evening. However, winds with fresh to
strong speeds will continue for the Florida Straits and portions
of the SE Gulf through early Mon. On Mon and Tue, conditions will
be quiescent across the entire Gulf. Looking ahead, the next cold
front should reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad surface ridge offshore of eastern Florida is maintaining
fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft across the western
and central basin. At the eastern basin, gentle to moderate ENE
to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft prevail.
For the forecast, strong ridging over the SE United States will
continue to force fresh to strong NE winds across the central and
W Caribbean including through the Windward Passage until early
Sun. A broad surface trough over the SW N Atlantic waters
extending into the NE Caribbean will gradually move westward to
the SW Caribbean through Mon. This trough will cause the pressure
gradient to relax across most of the Caribbean, allowing for
gentle to moderate trades across the basin through Tue. Looking
ahead, a building ridge may enhance the trades over the central
Caribbean to fresh to strong speeds Tue night through Wed night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding the two Gale Warnings.
A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas offshore waters. A surface trough
curves northeastward from a 1009 mb low north of Puerto Rico to
near 30N61W. At the eastern Atlantic, a 1008 mb low at 28N30W
continues to generate scattered moderate convection N of 20N and E
of 33W. Strong to near gale-force winds are within the NW and SE
semicircles along with very rough seas. For the Tropical
Atlantic, gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas are ongoing
W of 30W.
For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening stationary front should
dissipate later this morning. A tight pressure gradient between a
strong ridge building in the wake of the front and the westward
moving trough, will support strong to gale-force NE winds and
very rough seas over all of the waters west of 65W through Sun.
Conditions will gradually improve late Sun and Mon, and by Tue and
Wed winds will be reduced to moderate to fresh across the entire
area.
$$
Ramos
