AXNT20 KNHC 210838

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to 02N28W to 03.5N37W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is found on either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ within 180 nm.


A cold front is entering the NW Gulf from S-central Louisiana to the mid-Texas coast, with high pressure ridging out ahead of it across the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the front, and also lagging behind it across inland areas. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are arriving behind the front. Gentle to moderate return flow is ahead of the front, except fresh NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the NE half of the basin, and 3 to 6 ft in the SW half.

For the forecast, the front will reach from N-central Florida to the W-central Gulf to Veracruz, Mexico this evening, then will weaken and eventually wash out as it pushes through the southern Gulf by Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front through early Mon, lingering offshore of Veracruz through Mon evening. High pressure will rebuild in the wake of the front, with gentle to moderate winds across the NE half of the basin, and moderate to fresh across the SW half, pulsing to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night.


Broad high pressure is N of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are pulsing S of Hispaniola and just offshore N Colombia, with fresh winds near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft near the fresh to strong winds, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thunderstorms are moving from NW Colombia to the waters offshore far eastern Panama.

For the forecast, broad high pressure N of the basin will support pulsing fresh to strong winds just offshore N Colombia through this evening and again Wed night. Similar winds S of Hispaniola will diminish later this morning. Otherwise moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the E Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore central Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may reach into the Caribbean N of 20N Mon night, possibly bringing a brief period of active weather. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin.


Ridging extends from 31N55W through 27N65W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Another ridge extends from 31N27W through 22N40W to 18N55W. Light to gentle winds are right under the ridges, with gentle to moderate along the peripheries. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across most of the basin. Between the ridges, a surface trough is analyzed from 31N38W to 1012 mb low pressure near 27N44W to 15N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 27N and E of 44W. Fresh to strong winds are near the trough N of 25N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are from the Cabo Verde Islands to the Canary Islands offshore western Africa to 23W, with 5 to 7 ft seas there.

For the forecast, high pressure over the basin will continue to prevail ahead of a cold front which will move offshore NE Florida this evening, reaching from 31N73W to near Stuart, Florida Mon evening, from just E of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, then stalling and dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front, mainly N of 27N, near gale near 31N. The trough is forecast to linger through the remainder of the week with mainly tranquil conditions for the end of the week.

$$ Lewitsky